As of the latest close, Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) sits around $356.92 per share, with a 52‑week trading range of $326.31 to $436.36 and a market capitalization near $355 billion. [1] That leaves the stock roughly 18% below its 52‑week high and about 9% above its recent low, after a volatile November driven by earnings, guidance cuts, dividend news and fresh analyst downgrades.
Here’s a deep dive into what’s moving Home Depot stock as of November 30, 2025, and what it could mean for investors heading into year‑end.
Where Home Depot Stock Stands Now
Recent quote and valuation snapshot:
- Latest price: about $356.92
- Day range (last session): $353.50 – $357.83
- 52‑week range: $326.31 – $436.36
- Market cap: ≈ $355B
- P/E ratio (trailing): ~24.3x
- Dividend yield: about 2.6% based on a $2.30 quarterly dividend [2]
On a one‑year view, Home Depot shares are down about 17%, significantly lagging the broader U.S. equity market. [3] That underperformance has sharpened the debate: is HD a blue‑chip bargain or just expensive “late‑cycle” cyclicality?
Today’s Big Headline: Zacks Downgrades HD to “Strong Sell”
The loudest new signal this weekend comes from Zacks Research, which cut Home Depot from “hold” to “strong sell” in a note highlighted by MarketBeat on November 29. [4]
Key points from that report:
- Zacks flagged three pressure points:
- a Q3 earnings-per-share (EPS) miss (adjusted $3.74 vs. ~$3.83 consensus),
- soft margins and cautious guidance, and
- a tougher risk‑reward profile after the stock’s long multi‑year run. [5]
- Despite the downgrade, Wall Street’s overall stance remains constructive. MarketBeat’s tally shows 22 Buy ratings, 10 Holds and 2 Sells, for a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average 12‑month price target of about $404.60. [6]
So, on November 30, the market is watching an unusual split: one widely followed quantitative shop goes full “strong sell,” while the broader Street still sees upside from current levels.
Price Targets Are Sliding, Not Collapsing
The downgrade lands on top of several recent target cuts after Q3 results:
- TD Cowen kept an outperform / buy view but trimmed its price target from $470 to $410, citing weaker‑than‑hoped Q3 numbers, a softer Q4 outlook and a gloomier macro view around U.S. housing. [7]
- The same MarketBeat note lists JPMorgan, Evercore ISI, Truist and KGI all lowering their Home Depot targets in mid‑November, though most still rate the stock overweight or outperform. [8]
Across data providers:
- Investing.com pegs the average 12‑month target around $403, roughly 13% above the latest price. [9]
- StockAnalysis shows a similar cluster of targets in the low‑$400s, implying mid‑teens upside. [10]
- Morningstar, by contrast, says the stock is fairly valued, with a long‑term fair value estimate of $335—actually below where HD trades today. [11]
Translation: most analysts still see upside, but the “upside” is shrinking as forecasts come down and interest rates remain high. One big fundamental shop (Morningstar) is effectively saying, “you’re paying full price already.”
What Q3 2025 Results Told Investors
Home Depot’s third‑quarter fiscal 2025 report on November 18 set the tone for everything that followed. In headline form:
- Net sales: $41.4 billion, up 2.8% year‑on‑year. [12]
- Net earnings: $3.60 billion, down about 1.3% vs. last year. [13]
- GAAP diluted EPS: $3.62 (vs. $3.67 a year ago). [14]
- Adjusted EPS: $3.74 – below analyst expectations near $3.83–$3.84. [15]
- Comparable sales: up 0.2% overall; transaction counts dipped, but average ticket size rose. [16]
More importantly, management cut guidance:
- Full‑year adjusted EPS is now expected to fall about 5%, versus an earlier forecast of a 2% decline. [17]
- Comparable sales are now expected to be only “slightly positive”, below prior expectations of ~1% growth. [18]
CEO Ted Decker again pointed to weak housing turnover, consumer caution and even a lack of big storms (which usually boost repair and roofing demand) as key headwinds. [19]
Macroeconomically, several analysts framed the quarter as a snapshot of a “healthy but not hungry” U.S. consumer and a housing market stuck in “low‑velocity” mode: people can afford essentials and basic maintenance, but they aren’t rushing into big remodels. [20] For a retailer whose bread‑and‑butter is large home projects, that is a meaningful drag.
Fresh Narrative: Cautious Outlook Meets AI Innovation
On November 29, Simply Wall St published a narrative‑style analysis tying together the Q3 numbers, guidance, and new strategic initiatives. [21] Their key observations:
- Home Depot now expects about 3% sales growth for 2025, reflecting a slow recovery in discretionary remodeling and continued pressure from the housing slowdown and softer storm activity. [22]
- The core risk in their view: a prolonged slump in big‑ticket remodeling projects if economic conditions don’t improve meaningfully. [23]
- On the opportunity side, the analysis leans heavily on Home Depot’s push into AI and professional services, especially a new tool called Blueprint Takeoffs.
The AI‑Powered Blueprint Takeoffs Tool
On November 19, Home Depot announced Blueprint Takeoffs, an AI‑driven tool that turns construction blueprints for single‑family projects into detailed material lists and cost estimates within days instead of weeks. [24] Pros can then buy the entire bill of materials through Home Depot, making the retailer a de facto project‑planning partner rather than just a store.
The tool:
- Targets professional contractors and builders, not weekend DIYers.
- Aims to lock in entire projects (framing, windows, roofing, finishes) to Home Depot’s supply chain.
- Sits alongside trade credit, pro‑focused order management, fast delivery, and other services designed to make Home Depot a one‑stop shop for large jobs. [25]
Simply Wall St’s internal model projects Home Depot reaching $182.4 billion in revenue and $17.4 billion in earnings by 2028, implying mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and modest margin improvement. Their fair value estimate lands around $403 per share, or about 13% above current levels. [26]
That puts their valuation firmly in the “cautious optimism” camp: upside, but not a screaming bargain, and still highly dependent on a housing recovery.
Supply Chain Expansion: Hidden Value or Hidden Risk?
Another recent deep‑dive, featured on Yahoo Finance, asked whether Home Depot’s ongoing supply chain expansion is “hiding value or masking risk.” The attached discounted cash flow (DCF) model concluded that the stock might be overvalued by roughly 14–15% at current prices. [27]
That view effectively flips the Simply Wall and consensus story on its head:
- If growth and margins fall short of optimistic scenarios, the present valuation could be too rich.
- Heavy capex into distribution and Pro‑serving infrastructure could pay off handsomely—or weigh on returns if volumes disappoint.
For investors, these dueling DCFs underline the real uncertainty: is Home Depot extending a durable economic moat, or simply spending heavily into a down cycle?
Dividend and Shareholder Returns: A Steady Bright Spot
Income‑oriented holders got more straightforward news this month.
On November 20, Home Depot’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.30 per share, payable December 18, 2025 to shareholders of record on December 4. This marks the 155th consecutive quarterly dividend—a track record stretching back nearly four decades. [28]
At the current share price near $357, that works out to:
- Annualized dividend: about $9.20 per share
- Dividend yield: roughly 2.6%
Home Depot has a long history of aggressive capital returns, combining dividends with share repurchases. While buybacks have slowed recently as debt costs rise and acquisitions (like SRS Distribution and GMS) absorb cash, the company continues to position itself as a reliable dividend growth name in the Dow. [29]
Upcoming Catalyst: December 9 Investor & Analyst Conference
The next major scheduled catalyst is the 2025 Investor and Analyst Conference on December 9, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET, which will be webcast via Home Depot’s investor relations site. [30]
At that event, investors will be looking for:
- More detail on long‑term margin targets after the recent guidance cut
- Updates on the integration of SRS Distribution and GMS, and what those deals mean for pro‑focused growth
- Evidence that AI tools and broader digital investments are moving the needle for professional customers
- Any commentary on capital allocation—including the pace of future buybacks and the trajectory of dividend growth
Given how central housing turnover, rates and consumer confidence have become to the HD story, any shift in tone around 2026–2027 assumptions could move the stock.
How the Market is Valuing Home Depot Right Now
Putting all of this together:
- Valuation multiples: with a trailing P/E around 24x and EV/EBITDA in the mid‑teens, Home Depot still trades at a premium to many cyclical retailers—but not to its own historical average. [31]
- Street consensus: mid‑teens upside to the low‑$400s, with a Moderate Buy rating despite the high‑profile Zacks “strong sell.” [32]
- Bearish valuation takes: at least one DCF‑based view argues HD is overvalued by ~15%, particularly if housing stays weak. [33]
In other words: HD is no longer priced like a “can’t miss” bargain. It’s priced like a quality compounder facing a rough macro patch, with investors split on how soon housing and big‑ticket spending will bounce back.
Key Risks and Opportunities Going Into 2026
Risks:
- Housing turnover remains depressed. With many homeowners locked into 3% mortgages and new loans still expensive, fewer people are moving—and fewer are remodeling aggressively. [34]
- Storm activity is down. A quieter storm season has hit categories like roofing, generators and plywood, which often provide episodic boosts to sales. [35]
- Margins under pressure. Wage inflation, logistics costs and integration expenses from recent acquisitions are keeping operating margin below pre‑pandemic highs. [36]
Opportunities:
- Pro customer flywheel. If the AI Blueprint Takeoffs tool and expanded supply chain do what management hopes, Home Depot could capture entire project wallets from large Pro clients rather than piecemeal orders. [37]
- Secular need for repair & renovation. Even in a low‑velocity housing market, homes age, roofs leak and HVAC systems die. Several macro commentators frame HD as a late‑cycle “quality” play on steady, if unexciting, consumer demand. [38]
- Rate environment. Any sustained decline in mortgage rates over the next 12–24 months could unlock pent‑up housing mobility and remodeling demand, potentially making today’s cautious guidance look conservative.
What It All Means for Home Depot Stock
As of November 30, 2025, the story around Home Depot stock looks like this:
- Fundamentals: solid but not spectacular; sales are growing slowly, profits have dipped modestly, and guidance has been cut to reflect a tougher environment. [39]
- Sentiment: mixed; a fresh “strong sell” signal from Zacks contrasts with a still‑bullish Street consensus and a decades‑long reputation as a best‑in‑class operator. [40]
- Valuation: somewhere between “reasonable” and “rich” depending on whether you believe the more optimistic fair‑value models (~$400+) or the more conservative takes (~$335 or lower). [41]
- Strategy: clearly focused on professional customers, AI tools and supply chain depth, with a big investor‑day update just around the corner. [42]
For long‑term investors, HD remains a high‑quality, dividend‑paying blue chip tied tightly to the health of U.S. housing and the broader consumer. Shorter‑term traders, on the other hand, are dealing with:
- Slowing earnings,
- Mixed technical signals (several services flag HD as a short‑term “Sell”), [43]
- And a valuation that doesn’t obviously compensate for those risks.
Nothing here is guaranteed—this is not investment advice—but the current setup is clear: if you believe housing and remodeling demand will normalize over the next few years, Home Depot’s combination of scale, Pro focus and AI‑driven tools could make today’s dip a buying opportunity. If you think the “long landing” in housing lasts much longer, the Zacks downgrade and DCF caution are strong reminders that even great businesses can be mediocre stocks for stretches of time.
In the meantime, the next big chapter in the HD story should be written o
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.insidermonkey.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. stockanalysis.com, 11. www.morningstar.com, 12. ir.homedepot.com, 13. ir.homedepot.com, 14. ir.homedepot.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. ir.homedepot.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. lime.co, 21. simplywall.st, 22. simplywall.st, 23. simplywall.st, 24. ir.homedepot.com, 25. ir.homedepot.com, 26. simplywall.st, 27. finance.yahoo.com, 28. ir.homedepot.com, 29. ir.homedepot.com, 30. www.stocktitan.net, 31. www.investing.com, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. finance.yahoo.com, 34. lime.co, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. ir.homedepot.com, 37. ir.homedepot.com, 38. lime.co, 39. ir.homedepot.com, 40. www.marketbeat.com, 41. simplywall.st, 42. ir.homedepot.com, 43. www.investing.com
