Hongkong Land Holdings (SGX: H78) Stock Outlook 2026: Buybacks, Central Office Demand and Analyst Forecasts as of 10 December 2025

Hongkong Land Holdings Limited (SGX: H78, LSE: HKLD) has quietly turned into one of the more interesting recovery stories in Asian real estate. After several years of earnings volatility and pressure on Hong Kong office rents, the group is leaning heavily on three levers at once: prime Central office leasing, aggressive capital recycling, and sizeable share buybacks.

As of the close on 9 December 2025, Hongkong Land’s Singapore‑listed shares were trading around the mid‑US$6 range, with recent data showing about US$6.58 per share. ^[1] That puts the stock not far below most published 12‑month analyst targets, but still reflecting considerable caution about Hong Kong and China property.

This article walks through the latest news and data as at 10 December 2025, and how they feed into the 2026 outlook for Hongkong Land stock.

Where Hongkong Land stock stands today

External screens and analyst aggregators show a company that has already staged a big rebound, but is still priced like a “show me” story.

A recent Simply Wall St piece on Yahoo Finance notes that investors in Hongkong Land have enjoyed roughly 87% total return over the 12 months to late September 2025, off a low base after several difficult years. ^[2]
On technical screens, StockInvest flags Hongkong Land as in a wide horizontal trading range, with recent closing prices near the upper end of that band. Its model expects, with 90% probability, trading between roughly US$5.9 and US$6.6 over the next three months, and currently categorises the stock as “Hold/Accumulate”. ^[3]

Put simply: the big bounce is in the rear‑view mirror, and the market is now trying to decide whether Hongkong Land deserves to be treated as a stable compounding play anchored on Central, or as a structurally challenged China‑exposed landlord.

Fresh news: Harneys lease and “flight to quality” in Central

The clearest piece of brand‑new news on 10 December 2025 is not about earnings or dividends, but about desks and lawyers.

According to the South China Morning Post, Hongkong Land has secured the return of international law firm Harneys to its Central office portfolio. The firm has signed an eight‑year lease for about 11,048 sq ft on the 14th floor of Alexandra House, part of the Landmark complex, and will relocate in February 2026. ^[4]

The article highlights several important datapoints for equity investors: ^[5]

Hongkong Land describes the deal as part of a continued “flight to quality”, with tenants prioritising premier Central addresses even while the broader office market remains soft.
Legal firms now account for around 31% of tenants in its Central office portfolio, underlining the group’s tilt toward finance and professional services.
Around 87% of renovated Landmark space has already been taken up as part of the group’s US$1 billion “Tomorrow’s Central” upgrade project, which includes new luxury brands such as Schiaparelli opening their first permanent Hong Kong or Asia boutiques.

In other words, while headline Hong Kong office vacancy is still elevated, Hongkong Land’s particular slice of the market – ultra‑prime Central office and luxury retail clustered around Exchange Square and Landmark – continues to attract high‑end tenants willing to sign long leases.

Capital recycling: MCL Land sale and the One Exchange Square deal

The share price story cannot be separated from a drastic reshaping of the portfolio.

Exit from MCL Land and residential development

In late October 2025, Hongkong Land completed the sale of its Singapore and Malaysia residential developer MCL Land for S$739 million (about US$579 million), with total net proceeds including pre‑completion distributions of S$839 million (about US$657 million). ^[6]

This transaction is central to the group’s Strategic Vision 2035:

Management aims to recycle at least US$4 billion of capital by the end of 2027, and up to US$10 billion over a decade.
With the MCL Land sale, Hongkong Land has already secured about 50% of that US$4 billion 2027 target. ^[7]
The group is exiting build‑to‑sell development as a core strategy, focusing instead on ultra‑premium integrated commercial assets in “gateway cities” such as Hong Kong, Singapore and Shanghai. ^[8]

A piece in The Smart Investor frames the MCL divestment as a “transformative portfolio restructuring” that consolidates Hongkong Land’s pivot away from cyclical residential development and towards long‑duration commercial income. ^[9]

Selling space in One Exchange Square to HKEX

Earlier in 2025, Hongkong Land agreed to sell 147,025 sq ft of One Exchange Square to Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) for HK$6.3 billion. HKEX will make the space its new permanent Hong Kong headquarters, buying the top nine office floors and key retail areas for its entrance lobby, while also signing a long‑term lease over additional space in Two Exchange Square. ^[10]

The structure of the deal matters for shareholders: ^[11]

Up to 6.3% of sale proceeds will fund enhancements to the space being sold.
Of the remaining proceeds, around 80% will go to debt reduction and 20% will finance a US$200 million share buyback programme, which is also backed by other recycling activities.
Proceeds are paid in stages as floors are handed over, with about 45% expected in 2025 and the balance in 2026.

This transaction has also shown up in the wider market data. CBRE notes that HKEX’s purchase of multiple floors in One Exchange Square accounted for about 73% of all commercial real estate investment volume in Hong Kong in Q2 2025, underlining how central Hongkong Land assets remain to big‑ticket deals in the city. ^[12]

Share buybacks: capital returns go into high gear

Alongside disposals, Hongkong Land is increasingly using share repurchases to return capital and signal confidence.

In its Q3 2025 Interim Management Statement, the company reported that: ^[13]

The US$200 million buyback programme announced in April 2025 is now fully invested, reducing issued share capital by around 1.6%.
An additional US$150 million was authorised in September 2025, funded out of MCL Land proceeds and other recycled capital, with roughly US$40 million invested by late October.

Fresh RNS filings show that buybacks are ongoing right up to the present:

On 8 December 2025, Hongkong Land repurchased 220,000 ordinary shares at prices between US$6.58 and US$6.73, with a weighted average price of about US$6.65.
All repurchased shares are being cancelled; following this transaction the company reported 2,162,103,926 shares with voting rights outstanding. ^[14]

The net effect: a significant portion of capital unlocked from asset sales is being recycled into the stock itself, at roughly today’s trading price.

Financial performance: from deep losses to gradual normalisation

Fundamentally, Hongkong Land is still digging itself out of a multi‑year trough, but the numbers are heading in the right direction.

First half of 2025

According to Simply Wall St’s summary of the 1H 2025 results, Hongkong Land posted: ^[15]

Revenue of about US$751 million, down roughly 23% year‑on‑year.
Net income around US$221 million, a sharp improvement from a loss of about US$833 million in 1H 2024, as fair‑value movements and impairments normalised.

So revenue is lower, but the group has swung decisively back into profit.

Q3 2025 Interim Management Statement

The Q3 2025 Interim Management Statement, released on 20 November 2025, adds more colour: ^[16]

Underlying profit in Q3 was about 13% lower year‑on‑year, driven mainly by softer contributions from the Hong Kong office portfolio and pre‑opening costs for new China projects.
Central office vacancy on a committed basis improved to 6.4% at 30 September (from 6.9% at end‑June), versus around 11.0% vacancy for the wider Central Grade A market.
The LANDMARK retail portfolio performed broadly in line with the prior year despite major renovation works, with spending by ultra‑high‑net‑worth customers higher than in Q3 2024.
In Singapore, office rental reversions remained positive, with physical vacancy around 2.9% and committed vacancy at 2.2%, underscoring the strength of that market.
Net debt fell to about US$4.4 billion and gearing to 15% by 31 October 2025, helped by continued capital recycling and net cash inflows.

Management maintains guidance that underlying results for full‑year 2025 will be lower than 2024, once provisions are excluded. ^[17] That matches the mixed picture: operating metrics are improving, but the wider Hong Kong and China property environments remain challenging.

Market backdrop: Central improves, the rest of Hong Kong still struggles

To understand how much of Hongkong Land’s outlook is company‑specific versus macro, it helps to zoom out.

Grade A office: slow grind, Central as a bright spot

CBRE’s Hong Kong H1 2025 market review describes a market that is stabilising rather than booming: ^[18]

Grade A office gross leasing volume in Q2 2025 fell 3% quarter‑on‑quarter to 885,500 sq ft, bringing H1 volume to 1.8 million sq ft, down 30% year‑on‑year.
After two negative quarters, citywide net absorption turned positive, but the H1 2025 net absorption of –111,400 sq ft was far below H1 2024’s 1.0 million sq ft.
Greater Central was the standout, with net absorption of 155,400 sq ft in H1 2025, the strongest half‑year since 2015.
Citywide vacancy eased only slightly, to 17.4% in Q2 2025, and overall rents fell 0.6% quarter‑on‑quarter and 2.8% year‑to‑date, though Central rents were stable in Q2.

Cushman & Wakefield’s Q2 2025 report paints a similar picture, with overall Hong Kong Grade A office availability near 19% and core area rents down about 3.2% year‑to‑date, but again showing Greater Central outperforming non‑core submarkets. ^[19]

For Hongkong Land, which owns a dominant share of ultra‑prime Central office and luxury retail, this is almost the ideal shape of recovery: Central is tightening while decentralised submarkets remain under pressure, supporting a “flight to quality” narrative like the Harneys lease.

Retail and other segments

CBRE also highlights: ^[20]

Core retail vacancy in prime districts fell to about 7.1%, with Central and Causeway Bay both at around 6.6%.
Retail rents in key high‑street locations rose 0.9% quarter‑on‑quarter in Q2 2025, bringing first‑half growth to 1.9%, supported by tourism recovery and F&B demand.

This environment favours Hongkong Land’s LANDMARK luxury retail cluster, which targets affluent locals and high‑spending visitors rather than mass‑market traffic.

Analyst forecasts and valuation: moderate upside, strong earnings rebound

Across several data providers, the consensus view on Hongkong Land combines modest price upside with strong expected earnings growth off a low base.

Price targets and ratings

TradingView’s forecast page for SGX:H78 shows a 12‑month price target of about US$7.50, based on six analysts, with a range from roughly US$6.70 to US$8.11, and an overall “buy” rating from seven analysts in the last three months. ^[21]
GrowthInvesting.net, which tracks 12 analysts, reports an average target of US$7.13, with a similar high of US$8.11 and low of about US$4.91. It classifies the stock as “Outperform” and notes that the consensus target has risen significantly over the past five quarters. ^[22]

Given recent prices near US$6.6, these targets imply mid‑single‑ to low‑teens upside over the next year if they play out.

Earnings and revenue forecasts

Different platforms do not agree on every number, but the direction is consistent:

Simply Wall St’s “future growth” model for LSE:HKLD suggests revenue may be broadly flat to slightly declining (about –0.3% per year) over the next few years, but annual earnings could grow at over 40% per year, reflecting the rebound from loss‑making years and the impact of development completions and valuation normalisation. ^[23]
TradingView cites next‑quarter EPS estimates of around US$0.20, up from a recently reported US$0.13, and revenue of roughly US$940 million in the next quarter. ^[24]
Data compiled by Eulerpool indicates expected 2025 revenue around US$1.7 billion and profit of about US$640 million, implying a forward P/E near 17 and price‑to‑sales around 6.5 at current prices, as well as a 2025 dividend of about US$0.23, equating to a yield in the mid‑3% range. ^[25]

These are model‑based estimates and will change, but they underline the general view: earnings can grow faster than top‑line revenue if valuation swings stabilise and capital recycling keeps interest costs and leverage under control.

Dividend profile: decent yield, previously high payout

Hongkong Land has long been seen as a dependable dividend name within the Jardine group.

Historical data assembled by Eulerpool shows: ^[26]

A relatively steady dividend of around US$0.22 per share annually from 2019 through 2023, with modest growth from earlier years.
A 2024 payout ratio above 200% of earnings, reflecting the large reported loss that year rather than a deliberate decision to over‑distribute.
An expected 2025 dividend of about US$0.23, implying a yield somewhere around 3.5% at mid‑US$6 share prices.

So the income story is respectable but not spectacular; the real attraction, if the consensus is right, lies in earnings recovery plus buyback‑driven per‑share growth.

Technical picture: sideways trend with a value‑tilted bias

On pure chart‑based metrics, Hongkong Land is not behaving like a high‑beta spec stock.

StockInvest’s technical assessment (updated 8 December 2025) highlights that: ^[27]

The share is trading in the upper part of a wide, horizontal trend.
A decisive break above about US$6.68 could generate a “strong buy” technical signal and a trend shift; failure to break may instead offer a selling or trading‑range opportunity.
Over a three‑month horizon, its models expect a 90% probability band between roughly US$5.9 and US$6.6.

For long‑term investors, the more relevant question is whether fundamentals (rent, vacancy, capital recycling) will justify re‑rating the stock closer to, or above, analyst targets, rather than whether it can break a few cents higher next week.

Strategic positioning and soft power: more than just buildings

Beyond hard numbers, Hongkong Land continues to cultivate its positioning as a blue‑chip, sustainability‑focused owner of “trophy” urban assets.

In September 2025, the group’s BaseHall food and beverage venue in Central became Hong Kong’s first F&B space to achieve “triple platinum” ratings under BEAM Plus, LEED and WELL green building schemes, setting a new local benchmark for sustainable design. ^[28]
At the MIPIM Asia Summit 2025 in Hong Kong, Hongkong Land was listed among a roster of prominent regional real‑estate and capital‑markets players participating in discussions on digitalisation, climate resilience and alternative assets. ^[29]

None of this guarantees higher earnings, but it does reinforce Hongkong Land’s role as one of the default counterparties for global capital wanting exposure to prime Asian commercial real estate.

Key risks to the Hongkong Land investment case

For all the good news around Central and capital returns, investors do have to wrestle with several sizeable risks:

Hong Kong office oversupply and sluggish demand
Citywide Grade A office vacancy remains in the high‑teens, and leasing volumes are still well below pre‑pandemic levels, particularly in decentralised areas such as Kowloon East and Hong Kong East. ^[30]
If global corporates keep downsizing or shifting headcount, even Central could see renewed pressure on rents.
China residential exposure and impairments
The Q3 2025 statement explicitly flags weak buyer sentiment in China, selective price cuts and an ongoing review of the carrying value of build‑to‑sell inventory. Further write‑downs could weigh on reported earnings. ^[31]
Interest‑rate and refinancing risk
Lower HIBOR has helped borrowing costs in 2025, but the global rate environment remains uncertain. A reversal would make leveraged property plays less attractive, although Hongkong Land’s gearing of about 15% gives more flexibility than many peers. ^[32]
Execution risk on capital recycling
The strategy hinges on continuing to sell non‑core assets at acceptable valuations and reinvesting (or returning) capital without diluting long‑term income. Deals like the MCL Land sale and HKEX’s purchase of One Exchange Square space are encouraging, but large recycling targets always carry some deal‑timing risk. ^[33]
Valuation already partly reflects recovery
With the share price having already rallied strongly over the last year and trading on a mid‑teens forward P/E on 2025 estimates, a lot of “recovery” is arguably already in the price. ^[34]

Bottom line: a geared play on prime Central and capital returns

As of 10 December 2025, Hongkong Land looks like a concentrated bet on three intertwined themes:

Prime Central as a relative winner in a still‑fragile Hong Kong property market, illustrated by the Harneys lease, high pre‑commitment at Landmark, and HKEX’s decision to anchor itself in Exchange Square. ^[35]
Aggressive capital recycling, with MCL Land and other disposals funding both deleveraging and sustained buybacks. ^[36]
Earnings repair from a very low base, where moderate revenue and rent growth can translate into disproportionately higher per‑share earnings and dividends if valuation movements stabilise. ^[37]

Analyst models point to modest price upside and strong earnings growth, while technical indicators suggest a stock consolidating near the top of its current range rather than launching into a new multi‑year breakout. ^[38]

For investors, the decision now is less about discovering a neglected bargain and more about judging the durability of Central’s “flight to quality” and the discipline of Hongkong Land’s capital allocation. Those comfortable with Hong Kong and China property risk may view the combination of buybacks, dividends and prime‑asset exposure as an attractive package; more cautious investors may prefer to wait for either a better entry price or clearer evidence of a sustained rental up‑cycle.

Either way, Hongkong Land has moved firmly back into the conversation as one of the key listed proxies for Hong Kong’s attempt to reinvent its central business district in the post‑pandemic, post‑Mainland‑slowdown era.