LOUISVILLE, Kentucky, April 29, 2026, 08:07 (EDT)
Humana Inc. topped Wall Street’s Q1 profit forecasts Wednesday. Still, shares slid over 6% premarket as the health insurer left its 2026 adjusted profit target untouched and cut its reported earnings guidance.
Investors aren’t convinced Medicare Advantage has turned the corner. Humana’s member growth is strong, yet the segment’s still squeezed by stubborn medical expenses, government reimbursements, and declining quality scores that threaten its federal bonus payments.
The timing is key here. Over the past week, Centene bumped up its full-year profit and revenue outlook, echoing upgrades from UnitedHealth and Elevance, according to Reuters. Humana, on the other hand, kept its stance unchanged—so its latest quarterly beat comes off as more cautious in tone than growth-oriented.
Humana posted adjusted earnings of $10.31 per share for the quarter ending March 31, topping the $10.19 forecast from analysts, LSEG data shows, as reported by Reuters. GAAP earnings landed at $9.83 per share, slipping from $10.30 the previous year. Revenue climbed to $39.65 billion, up from $32.11 billion.
The insurer posted an insurance benefit ratio of 89.4%—coming in just below its target of “just under 90%.” Humana pointed out that both medical and pharmacy cost trends are running “slightly better” than it had anticipated among both new and existing members, based on the latest available data. SEC
“A solid start to the year,” Humana’s Chief Executive Jim Rechtin said, pointing to ongoing gains in customer experience and care quality. The company stuck with its forecast for roughly 25% growth in individual Medicare Advantage membership for 2025, citing fresh sales and improved retention as the key drivers. businesswire.com
Still, no change to the outlook. Humana reiterated its adjusted 2026 earnings target—“at least $9.00” per share. On the GAAP side, guidance was lowered to “at least $8.36” from the prior “at least $8.89.” The company blamed this year’s profit drop on Medicare Star Ratings, the quality metrics that feed into bonus payments from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. businesswire.com
Earlier this month, the sector jumped after CMS signed off on a 2.48% average boost for 2027 Medicare Advantage payments—translating to over $13 billion in additional funding for plans. That’s a sharp improvement from the slim 0.09% bump floated back in January. Still, Humana pointed out the final rate doesn’t fully keep pace with medical cost trends.
For the sector, analysts had pegged that rate decision as a relief. Mizuho’s Ann Hynes argued insurers should now be able to “expand margins in 2027,” while Leerink’s Whit Mayo suggested the move makes the sector “more investable.” Oppenheimer’s Michael Wiederhorn called it possible that “the tide [is] changing” for the industry. Reuters
Still, Humana isn’t in the clear. According to the company, fresh Medicare Advantage sign-ups tend to have higher benefit ratios than those sticking around, and there’s a risk: if its Star Ratings appeal doesn’t succeed, Humana said the drop could hit 2026 quality bonus payouts, revenue, operating results, and cash flow.
Humana’s report again spotlighted its CenterWell services drive. CenterWell Senior Primary Care tacked on 110,500 new patients this quarter—figures that factor in both organic growth and the MaxHealth acquisition. Over at CenterWell Pharmacy, the team is collaborating with Mark Cuban’s Cost Plus Drugs to roll out employer-focused prescription drug offerings.
It’s straightforward for now: Humana’s keeping a lid on costs, but hasn’t boosted its profit outlook for 2026. The bigger question is whether rapid membership gains and plan price hikes can help margins rebound, even as the insurer navigates Star Ratings headwinds and the 2027 Medicare bid process.
