SHANGHAI, Jan 11, 2026, 00:25 GMT+8 — Market closed
- ICBC Class A shares closed Friday 0.26% higher at 7.71 yuan, as mainland markets remained closed for the weekend.
- Beijing indicated a new fiscal and financial effort aimed at boosting domestic demand, with measures to back consumer borrowing.
- Investors are gearing up for China’s upcoming credit figures and how policy measures will unfold next.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd’s Class A shares — those A-shares traded in Shanghai in yuan — ended Friday 0.26% higher at 7.71 yuan. Meanwhile, Bank of China’s A-shares fell 0.54%. 1
Investors reacted swiftly to a fresh policy shift from Beijing. According to state broadcaster CCTV, China’s cabinet convened to advance a coordinated fiscal and financial package aimed at boosting domestic demand. 2
Why it matters now: the package relies heavily on credit. The cabinet highlighted increased loan support for service providers and expanded interest-subsidy policies for personal consumer loans, wording that typically draws major state banks into the spotlight.
Inflation figures added to bets that more stimulus could be coming. China’s December CPI climbed 0.8% year on year, while producer prices dropped 1.9%, a smaller decline than the month before, according to official data. Lynn Song from ING described inflation as “relatively low” and said further easing shouldn’t be ruled out. 3
China stocks surged late Friday, boosting financials. The Shanghai Composite closed 0.92% higher at 4,120.43 — its strongest level since 2015 — while the CSI300 gained 0.45%, according to a report citing Reuters data and interviews. William Bratton of BNP Paribas Exane stayed bullish on Chinese equities but favored materials, industrials, and tech for the near term. 4
Credit is now in focus. A Reuters poll forecasts December net new yuan loans at 800 billion yuan, sharply up from November’s 390 billion. M2 money supply growth is expected to stay steady at 8.0%. Analysts at Citi Research noted that a 500 billion-yuan policy-financing tool might already be boosting new lending, particularly as construction demand picks up. 5
For ICBC, higher loan volumes aren’t an outright win. If interest rates drop, net interest margin—the spread between earnings on loans and costs on deposits—could shrink even as their balance sheets grow.
The property overhang remains a threat, capable of quickly driving up credit costs. Bloomberg reported that China Vanke is preparing a debt restructuring plan after being urged by authorities. Reuters noted it couldn’t verify the report right away, and Vanke has yet to respond to requests for comment. 6
ICBC’s A-shares are hovering around the midpoint of their 52-week range, which runs from 6.40 to 8.40 yuan. This positioning leaves some wiggle room depending on macroeconomic shifts, though traders tend to view the upper boundary as a short-term cap.
The stock’s dividend appeal ensures it stays visible even as growth names lose favor, though sudden shifts in policy-driven lending can quickly turn the focus from yield to asset quality.
Shanghai trading will likely focus on macro data when it reopens, particularly the upcoming figures on bank lending and “total social financing,” a wide-ranging credit measure covering bank loans and off-balance-sheet financing. ICBC is set to release its next earnings report on March 31.
