ICICI Bank Share Price on 9 December 2025: AMC IPO, RBI Rate Cuts, Q2 Results and 2026 Target Price Forecasts

ICICI Bank Ltd (NSE: ICICIBANK, BSE: 532174) traded slightly lower on 9 December 2025, as investors digested fresh news on its asset-management subsidiary’s IPO, a recent RBI rate cut, and still‑strong Q2 FY26 earnings. The stock remains close to its 52‑week highs, with most brokerages maintaining bullish ratings and double‑digit upside targets, even as some models now call it “fairly valued.” ^[1]

ICICI Bank share price today: mild dip after a strong year

By late morning on 9 December 2025, ICICI Bank shares were trading around ₹1,379–1,381, down roughly 0.6–0.8% intraday. The Economic Times liveblog reported: ^[2]

Last traded price near ₹1,379–1,380
Market cap around ₹9.9 lakh crore
P/E ratio about 18.5x, with EPS of ₹74.61
1‑month return of about 3.5% and year‑to‑date return of ~4–6%

The stock is trading just below short‑term trend indicators: it has slipped under its 20‑day simple and exponential moving averages (SMA ~₹1,386; EMA ~₹1,383), and even below a second support level (S2) near ₹1,401, suggesting a near‑term pause after a strong run. ^[3]

On 8 December, MarketWatch noted ICICI Bank closed at ₹1,389.40, down 0.19%, outperforming a weaker Sensex session and peers like IndusInd Bank and SBI. The stock remains about 7% below its 52‑week high of ₹1,494.10 hit on 31 July. ^[4]

Smart‑Investing’s snapshot for 8 December shows similar levels, with end‑of‑day price ₹1,389.40, 1‑month return 3.5%, and 1‑year return 5.8%. ^[5]

Big trigger: stake hike in ICICI Prudential AMC ahead of blockbuster IPO

A major narrative around ICICI Bank this week is its strategy in ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company (ICICI Pru AMC), which is headed for a large domestic IPO.

Business Standard reports that ICICI Bank plans to maintain more than 51% stake in all three of its listed subsidiaries, including IPO‑bound ICICI Pru AMC. Executive Director Sandeep Batra said the bank will lift its stake in the AMC from 51% to 53% by acquiring an extra 2 percentage points before listing. ^[6]
British partner Prudential plc will reduce its stake from 49% to 47% via this sale, and then to about 37% post‑IPO, with SEBI requiring it to eventually go down to 22% over five years. ^[7]

A separate Moneycontrol piece notes ICICI Bank will buy that additional 2% stake from Prudential for around ₹2,140 crore, ahead of a planned ₹10,600‑crore IPO of ICICI Pru AMC, and that this announcement contributed to a modest drop in ICICI Bank’s share price on 9 December. ^[8]

From the IPO angle, Reuters reports that: ^[9]

ICICI Prudential Asset Management will launch its three‑day IPO on 12 December, with anchor bids on 11 December.
The issue is a secondary stake sale, with Prudential selling about 10% of the company (up to 49 million shares) and ICICI Bank not selling any shares.
The deal seeks an approximate valuation of $12 billion, making it one of the larger AMC IPOs in India.

For ICICI Bank shareholders, this combination—no stake sale, stake increase before listing, and high implied valuation—positions the bank to:

Lock in control and consolidation benefits (keeping the AMC as a true subsidiary). ^[10]
Potentially capture future upside in asset management profits if India’s capital‑market penetration continues to rise. ^[11]

Regulatory backdrop: RBI keeps ICICI in the D‑SIB “too big to fail” club

On 2 December 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) again classified ICICI Bank, along with SBI and HDFC Bank, as a Domestic Systemically Important Bank (D‑SIB)—the Indian version of “too big to fail.” ^[12]

Key points from the RBI update as summarised by the Economic Times: ^[13]

ICICI Bank sits in the lower D‑SIB bucket and must hold an additional 0.2% Common Equity Tier‑1 (CET1) capital buffer over the regular requirement.
This surcharge has been in place since April 2025 and is based on data as of 31 March 2025.

The label is a double‑edged sword:

It reinforces the bank’s status as a core pillar of the financial system, reassuring depositors and large institutional investors.
It also raises capital requirements, which can slightly constrain leverage but supports long‑term stability.

Macro tailwind: RBI rate cuts and the bank‑stock rally

ICICI Bank’s valuation is also being shaped by a broader macro story: the RBI’s shift into a serious rate‑cut cycle in 2025.

On 5 December 2025, the RBI cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25%, the third cut of the year and a cumulative 100 bps reduction from 6.25%. ^[14]
This move is framed as part of a “goldilocks” environment of strong growth and very low inflation, with GDP growth now projected around 7.3% and CPI inflation near 2%. ^[15]

A series of Business Standard and other reports show that: ^[16]

Indian bank stocks have rallied sharply—some mid‑ and small‑cap banks are up more than 70% since the first RBI rate cut in February 2025.
Analysts are now divided on further upside in the banking index, citing both improved credit growth and concerns that valuations are rich in pockets.

ICICI Bank, as a large private‑sector bellwether, has been a key beneficiary of this rate‑cut‑driven re‑rating, but that also means the bar for future performance is higher.

Q2 FY26 results: steady growth, strong asset quality

ICICI Bank’s Q2 FY26 (July–September 2025) numbers underpin much of the current optimism.

Profitability and income

Moneycontrol and brokerage analyses highlight the following for Q2 FY26: ^[17]

Standalone net profit: ~₹12,359 crore, up 5.2% YoY, beating consensus expectations of ~₹12,024 crore.
Net interest income (NII): about ₹21,529.5 crore, up 7.4% YoY, slightly ahead of Street forecasts.
Total income: around ₹49,333 crore, up from about ₹47,714 crore a year earlier.
Non‑interest income: ~₹7,575 crore, up modestly YoY.
Net interest margin (NIM): around 4.3%, down only a few basis points QoQ—seen as “margin resilience” compared to peers.

Despite rising costs (cost‑to‑income ratio near 40–41%), profitability metrics remain among the best in the large‑bank peer group:

Return on assets (RoA): about 2.3%.
Return on equity (RoE): around 16%, edging ahead of several private‑sector rivals. ^[18]

Asset quality and provisions

The same quarter also showed continued improvement in asset quality: ^[19]

Gross NPAs: down to roughly ₹23,850 crore (GNPA ratio 1.58%) from 1.97% a year earlier.
Net NPAs: about ₹5,827 crore, net NPA ratio 0.39% versus 0.42% a year ago.
Provisions and contingencies: down nearly 26% YoY to ~₹914 crore.
Capital adequacy ratio (Basel III): improved to ~15.8–17% depending on metric, comfortably above regulatory minimums.

Brokerages such as PL Capital and Financial Express describe ICICI’s credit quality as “best‑in‑class among large banks”, noting low credit costs (roughly 0.25–0.30%) and healthy provision coverage. ^[20]

Growth and margins

There are, however, a couple of yellow flags:

Loan growth was solid but not spectacular, around 10–10.5% YoY and ~3% QoQ, with some softening in small business and parts of retail. ^[21]
Deposit growth has been more muted, and sector‑wide competition for deposits remains intense, which could weigh on margins if the deposit franchise does not keep pace. ^[22]

Most analysts see ICICI’s Q2 as a steady, broadly in‑line quarter with a slight positive bias: not explosive growth, but consistent, high‑quality earnings.

What brokerages are saying: targets mostly between ₹1,600 and ₹1,800

Post‑results and ahead of the AMC IPO, Indian and global brokerages have refreshed views on ICICI Bank.

A Moneycontrol round‑up of analyst calls after Q2 FY26 notes: ^[23]

HSBC: Buy, target ₹1,680, citing stronger‑than‑expected NIM, credit costs and fees, and arguing that premium valuations are justified.
CLSA: target ₹1,700, calling the quarter “good but not great,” and pointing to management’s cautious commentary on further NIM improvement.
Morgan Stanley: Overweight, target ₹1,800, highlighting resilient asset quality and profitability.

The Financial Express comparison of HDFC Bank vs ICICI Bank in Q2 FY26 adds more colour: ^[24]

Nuvama Institutional Equities: Buy, target ₹1,750, calling ICICI its “top pick among private lenders” thanks to rare margin resilience and steady asset quality.
Elara Securities: Buy, target ₹1,707, emphasising resilient earnings and controlled credit costs.
Deven Choksey Research: Accumulate, target ₹1,593, arguing that ICICI’s premium valuation is warranted by strong margins, robust balance sheet and sustained retail traction.

PL Capital, in a Q2 private‑banks roundup, reiterates a Buy with a higher target of ₹1,800, describing Q2 as “steady and broad‑based,” with RoA/RoE around 2.3%/16% and asset quality “best‑in‑class.” ^[25]

Consensus forecasts: double‑digit upside, but not screamingly cheap

Various consensus and model‑driven platforms converge on a similar message: moderate upside from current levels rather than deep value.

From major Indian data aggregators:

Trendlyne: average target around ₹1,641, implying roughly 18–19% upside from the latest price near ₹1,380–1,390, based on 28 reports from 11 analysts. ^[26]
Economic Times (company page): median 12‑month target ₹1,693.95, with high at ₹1,910 and low at ₹1,440, across about 37 analysts. ^[27]
TradingView: average price target ₹1,705.44, using a similar high/low range of ₹1,440–₹1,910. ^[28]

On the valuation‑model side:

TradersUnion projects a 2026 range of roughly ₹1,355–₹1,657, with an average around ₹1,506, based on historical patterns and expected earnings. ^[29]
Smart‑Investing calculates an intrinsic value of ₹1,344.59 (median of three historical models) and notes the stock is trading at about a 3% premium to this estimate at current levels. It also flags ICICI Bank as “fairly valued,” with fundamentals rated strong. ^[30]

Short‑term trading systems are more cautious:

Sites such as Munafasutra and others show near‑term support/resistance around ₹1,386–₹1,401, consistent with Economic Times’ remark that the stock is trading below its S2 support and below its 20‑day SMA/EMA. ^[31]
Algorithmic forecast sites for the ADR IBN (see below) suggest a sideways to mildly negative bias in the next few sessions, not a clear short‑term breakout. ^[32]

The broad takeaway: most fundamental analysts see 15–25% upside over 12–18 months, but quantitative models and short‑term technicals point to consolidation rather than a runaway rally.

Ownership structure: dominated by institutions

A recent Simply Wall St breakdown of ICICI Bank’s shareholding shows: ^[33]

Institutional investors own about 72% of the stock, a high share that implies professional money has strong influence on price moves.
The largest holder is SBI Funds Management with roughly 5.1%, followed by LIC (~4.9%) and ICICI Prudential AMC (~3.7%).
The top 25 shareholders collectively own around 49%, and insiders (board/management) own <1%, typical for a large listed bank.
The general public holds about 27%, giving retail investors some voice but not control.

High institutional ownership often signals credibility and strong coverage, but it also means that coordinated de‑risking by big funds can magnify volatility—something to watch if the broader bank trade falls out of favour.

Fundamentals and valuation snapshot

Smart‑Investing’s fundamental dashboard (consolidated, as of Sep 2025 / Dec 8 data) summarises ICICI Bank as follows: ^[34]

Fundamentals: rated “Good,” with low NPA ratios and no pledged promoter shares.
Valuation:
- P/E (TTM): ~17.5x
- P/B: ~3.2x
- P/S: ~5.2x
- Verdict: “Fairly valued”, not deeply discounted versus intrinsic value.
Intrinsic value models:
- EV/EBITDA fair value: ~₹1,344.6
- EV/Sales fair value: ~₹1,647.9
- Price/Sales fair value: ~₹935.4
- Median fair value: ₹1,344.6, implying roughly 3% premium at the current market price.

Combined with ET’s live P/E of about 18.5x, the stock trades near 2.5–3.2x FY26 book value, broadly in line with what brokerages like Nuvama and Elara describe for ICICI versus HDFC Bank. ^[35]

ICICI Bank ADR (IBN) on NYSE: global investors see a “Hold”

For international investors, ICICI Bank trades on the NYSE under the ticker IBN.

MarketBeat shows IBN closing at $30.36 on 8 December 2025, down about 1.1% on the day. ^[36]
The site currently records a consensus rating of “Hold” based on a single analyst, with no formal consensus price target available. ^[37]

Short‑term quantitative forecasts paint a similar picture:

StockInvest.us notes that IBN has fallen for three consecutive sessions, with a ~1.6% loss over the last two weeks and rising volume on down days—often interpreted as short‑term weakness. ^[38]
CoinCodex projects largely flat to slightly negative price action over the next five days, with prices hovering around $30–31, following a mild 7‑day decline. ^[39]

In essence, the ADR reflects the same consolidation story as the local listing: a high‑quality bank that global models no longer see as cheap, but not as overvalued enough to warrant widespread “Sell” calls.

Key drivers and risks to watch in 2026

Putting the strands together, several themes are likely to drive ICICI Bank’s stock over the next year:

Execution on loan and deposit growth
- Loan growth has cooled to around 10% YoY, which is decent but not dramatic for a premium‑valued private bank. Brokerages like Emkay and others have flagged moderate credit growth as a reason the stock did not re‑rate further after Q2. ^[40]
- Sustained deposit mobilisation at acceptable costs will be crucial in a post‑rate‑cut world where banks compete aggressively for retail money.
Margin resilience vs falling rates
- ICICI’s NIM compression has been limited so far—only a few basis points QoQ—thanks to its strong CASA and disciplined term‑deposit pricing. ^[41]
- With RBI having cut rates by 100 bps in 2025, markets will watch whether ICICI can maintain NIMs while still pushing growth, or whether spreads narrow more sharply as loan yields reset.
Asset quality in a low‑rate environment
- Current GNPA/NNPA levels (1.58%/0.39%) and low credit costs are a major pillar of the bull case. ^[42]
- Any uptick in slippages—especially in retail unsecured or SME portfolios—could quickly change the narrative from “best‑in‑class” to “normalising,” and the market would likely de‑rate margins in that scenario.
ICICI Prudential AMC IPO outcome
- A successful listing at or above the rumoured $12‑billion valuation, with strong post‑listing performance, would validate ICICI’s decision not to sell shares and to increase its stake. ^[43]
- A weak listing or pricing cut could dampen sentiment, especially as investors have partly baked in AMC value creation.
Sector‑wide sentiment after a big rally
- Bank stocks have already had a major run since the first RBI cut, and Business Standard notes that many names are up more than 50–70% over that period. ^[44]
- If investors rotate out of financials after the rate‑cut euphoria, even strong banks like ICICI could see de‑rating without much change in fundamentals.
Global risk appetite and ADR flows
- With high institutional ownership at home and a liquid ADR abroad, ICICI Bank is plugged into global risk‑on/risk‑off cycles. ^[45]
- Sharp moves in EM risk premia or in the rupee could feed back into both NSE and NYSE pricing.

Bottom line: quality franchise priced for steady, not spectacular, gains

As of 9 December 2025, the picture on ICICI Bank looks like this:

Operationally: a high‑quality, consistently profitable private bank with strong asset quality, resilient margins and solid capital buffers. ^[46]
Strategically: doubling down on fee‑rich businesses like asset management, maintaining control of key subsidiaries, and benefiting from India’s long‑term credit‑growth story. ^[47]
Valuation‑wise: trading slightly above many intrinsic‑value estimates but still offering mid‑teens to low‑20s percentage upside according to most broker price targets. ^[48]
Technically: near short‑term resistance, with indicators and algorithmic models suggesting a consolidation phase, not a fresh breakout, right now. ^[49]