NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 10:34 ET — Market closed
ICL Group Ltd (NYSE: ICL) shares last closed up 3.0% at $5.71 on Wednesday. U.S. stock markets were shut on Thursday for New Year’s Day, according to the NYSE holiday calendar.
The move matters heading into 2026 because ICL’s earnings are closely tied to crop-nutrient pricing, especially potash and phosphate fertilizers. Those prices can swing quickly as buyers in big markets lock in supply and farmers respond to crop economics.
Potash pricing is in focus after a late-December filing in which ICL said it signed contracts to supply 750,000 metric tons of potash to customers in China during 2026, with a mutual option for another 330,000. The contracts were priced in line with recent China settlements at $348 per ton on a CIFFO basis, the filing showed.
CIFFO is a delivered-price term that includes freight, insurance and unloading at the destination port. China’s contract settlements often act as a reference point for broader potash negotiations because they can influence pricing talks in other regions.
On the demand side, retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN were mostly lower in the fourth week of December, led by a 6% month-on-month drop in diammonium phosphate, or DAP, to $866 a ton. DTN pegged monoammonium phosphate (MAP) at $884 and potash at $484, while urea averaged $567.
Even with the late-month dip, DTN said all eight products it tracks were higher than a year earlier, including potash up 9% and DAP up 17%. For producers, that mix can support revenue but also tests how much growers will pay before cutting application rates.
That backdrop links ICL to a broader group of fertilizer names that traders use as read-throughs on nutrient pricing, including Nutrien and Mosaic in potash and phosphate, and CF Industries in nitrogen.
Macro conditions remain a swing factor. The World Bank said in an October outlook that global commodity prices are projected to fall again in 2026 as growth stays weak and oil supply rises, a setup that can ripple into crop input markets.
ICL has also been pitching a strategy that leans on higher-margin specialty lines alongside its commodity exposure. “ICL delivered solid year-over-year growth in both sales and EBITDA,” Chief Executive Elad Aharonson said in a November quarterly statement, where the company reiterated a 2025 specialties-driven adjusted EBITDA outlook of $0.95 billion to $1.15 billion and potash sales volume of 4.3 million to 4.5 million metric tons. Q4 Capital
In the last session, ICL traded between $5.53 and $5.76 and sits within a 52-week range of $4.85 to $7.35, according to Yahoo Finance. Volume was about 1.86 million shares versus an average daily volume of about 858,000.
Before Friday’s reopening, traders will watch for early-January signals on fertilizer affordability and demand. The World Bank’s next commodity price update is due Jan. 6, and the USDA’s next WASDE report is scheduled for Jan. 12.
On the company calendar, earnings trackers such as Zacks list ICL’s next report date as Feb. 25, though schedules can change. Investors will be looking for potash realized pricing versus contracted levels in China, and for any update on volumes under the 2026 agreements.
