London, April 22, 2026, 20:15 BST
- Imperial Brands snapped up 190,000 shares on April 21, continuing progress on its £1.45 billion buyback plan.
- The stock slid that day, deepening losses from last week’s market share warning in major tobacco markets.
- Investors want to see in the May 12 half-year results whether second-half profit growth will be enough to meet the group’s full-year targets.
Imperial Brands PLC kept its buyback program rolling this week, snapping up 190,000 ordinary shares for cancellation on April 21. Shares stumbled in London, but the Bristol-based cigarette maker—behind brands like Winston, Davidoff, and Gauloises—paid an average 2,758.2776 pence per share, a regulatory filing showed.
Timing’s crucial here. Buybacks and dividends sit at the heart of the Imperial Brands story, but right now, investors are weighing if those cash returns can really make up for softer market-share trends in the company’s core cigarette business and a slowdown in growth from smoking alternatives.
Imperial dropped 2.29% on Tuesday, closing at £27.34 and lagging the FTSE 100, according to MarketWatch data. Shares had already taken a harder hit last week after the company flagged a small overall market-share dip for its top five markets in the first half.
Imperial stuck to its full-year forecast. The company continues to project low-single-digit revenue growth on tobacco, and says it still sees double-digit gains for next-gen products like vapes, heated tobacco and nicotine pouches. Adjusted operating profit is targeted to climb between 3% and 5%. Free cash flow? Guidance remains at a minimum of £2.2 billion, after operating costs and capital expenditures.
The early numbers don’t quite stack up to the targets. Imperial expects group adjusted operating profit to edge up just slightly from last year, with most of the gains pushed into the back half. Currency swings are also set to drag: foreign exchange translation is on track to knock 2.0% to 2.5% off first-half earnings per share.
Derren Nathan at Hargreaves Lansdown called it a “slow but steady start,” sticking with his view that profit growth for the full year is possible—assuming the pace picks up in the months ahead. Still, he flagged that deeper losses in next-generation products and a dip in market share have left investors feeling “underwhelmed.” Hargreaves Lansdown
The United States, Germany, the UK, Spain, and Australia make up Imperial’s biggest markets. Just last week, Reuters said the company is now prioritizing profit over sheer volume—a move that could see it cede some market share in those regions, while betting on price hikes and tighter cost management to keep earnings intact.
It’s a tricky balance. British American Tobacco and Philip Morris International have poured money into high-end brands and next-generation nicotine products, but Imperial tends to play the value card, undercutting rivals on price. All of them are grappling with declining cigarette demand, and new products aren’t exactly getting a free pass from regulators.
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould pointed out that Chief Executive Lukas Paravicini “knows this only too well” as he pushes forward with Imperial’s second five-year strategy. According to Mould, investors have been rattled by the group’s remarks on market share and by growth in next-generation products coming in softer than hoped—even though Imperial reiterated its guidance. AJ Bell
Imperial’s buyback offers a straightforward way to support the stock in the short run. The new tranche drops the share count to 779.1 million, not counting treasury shares, as part of the £1.45 billion repurchase unveiled back in October. As of March 31, the company had wrapped up £0.7 billion of that plan, it said last week.
The second half is carrying a lot of expectations, and there’s a real possibility it won’t deliver. Imperial has pointed to uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict—so far, no direct hit to business, but signs of potential turbulence ahead. Over in the U.S., its nicotine pouch unit is ramping up promotions, adding more pressure. On top of that, the company made a $200 million payment to R.J. Reynolds in the first half, following a Delaware Supreme Court ruling. Another $234 million is still owed, to be paid out in roughly equal chunks over the next three years.
Morningstar’s Kristoffer Inton struck a less anxious tone, suggesting the recent selloff has pulled the stock close to bargain levels, with shares reflecting “next to no growth.” Tobacco, he emphasized, still drives Imperial’s valuation much more than the newer nicotine offerings. Inton’s forecast for adjusted operating profit over the next five years sits below the firm’s longer-range 3% to 5% goal. Morningstar
Imperial is set to deliver its half-year numbers on May 12, covering the period through March 31. Pricing, share buybacks, and cost savings are all in focus, as investors gauge whether these measures can ease worries about lost market share. If not, scrutiny could shift quickly to the details of the company’s 2030 strategy.
