India Stock Market Preview for Monday, December 8, 2025: Nifty 50, Sensex Outlook After RBI Rate Cut and Rupee Shock

India’s stock market heads into the new week balancing a rare “Goldilocks” macro backdrop—strong growth and low inflation—with rising global and currency risks. After the RBI’s surprise rate cut and the rupee’s slide past ₹90 per dollar, traders are watching how Nifty 50 and Sensex will react when markets reopen on Monday, December 8, 2025. ^[1]

Friday recap: RBI rate cut lifts Nifty, banks and IT

On Friday, December 5, benchmark indices ended firmly higher after the Reserve Bank of India cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% and announced bond purchases and FX swaps to infuse liquidity. ^[2]

Nifty 50 closed at 26,186.45, up 152.7 points (0.59%).
Sensex finished at 85,712.37, up 447.05 points (0.52%).
Nifty Bank jumped to 59,777.20, gaining 0.82%. ^[3]

Rate-sensitive pockets outperformed:

PSU banks and financials led the rally; Nifty PSU Bank rose about 1.5% and Nifty Financial Services nearly 1%.
Realty and auto indices also firmed up on hopes of lower EMIs and cheaper funding. ^[4]

Market breadth, however, was mixed. Midcaps and smallcaps underperformed the benchmarks over the week, and analysts at ETMarkets flagged weakening market breadth even as the primary trend stays up. ^[5]

Foreign and domestic flows on Friday highlight the tug-of-war:

FIIs (foreign investors) sold equities worth around ₹438.9 crore.
DIIs (domestic institutions) bought about ₹4,189 crore, more than offsetting FII selling. ^[6]

Volatility stayed subdued, with India VIX around 10.3, near the lower end of its historical range—great for option sellers, but also a sign of potential complacency. ^[7]

Macro backdrop: Goldilocks growth vs a 90-rupee dollar

RBI turns more growth-friendly

On December 5, the RBI trimmed the repo rate from 5.50% to 5.25%, its fifth cut of 2025, taking the year’s total easing to 125 bps. ^[8]

Key macro takeaways:

GDP growth forecast for FY26 raised to 7.3% from 6.8%.
Inflation forecast cut to 2% from 2.6% amid very low recent CPI prints. ^[9]
RBI also announced ₹1 trillion in government bond purchases and a $5 billion FX swap to boost system liquidity. ^[10]

The central bank described the current environment as a “rare Goldilocks period”—robust growth with subdued inflation—even as it acknowledged currency pressures and global headwinds. ^[11]

Recent data also back the growth story: Q2 FY26 GDP grew 8.2% year-on-year, beating expectations and staying comfortably above 7%. ^[12]

Rupee at record lows changes the equity narrative

The feel-good macro story is tempered by the rupee’s slide past ₹90 per US dollar:

The rupee hit record lows around 90.4–90.5 per dollar this week, down more than 5% in 2025, making it Asia’s worst-performing currency so far. ^[13]
Heavy FPI outflows (~$17 billion from equities), a record trade deficit above $40 billion and delayed US–India trade talks have all pressured the currency. ^[14]
RBI is now reportedly focused on curbing volatility rather than defending any specific level, tolerating a weaker rupee so long as moves are orderly. ^[15]

Strategically, this matters for Monday’s trade because:

Export-oriented sectors like IT and some pharma names may continue to see earnings tailwinds from a weaker rupee. ^[16]
Import-heavy plays—aviation, oil marketing companies, autos with high imported content, and consumer names sensitive to input costs—face margin pressure if the rupee remains under 90–91. ^[17]
A persistently weak rupee can dampen foreign equity returns in dollar terms, possibly prolonging FII selling even though India’s growth is outpacing most peers. ^[18]

Expect the USD/INR opening level on Monday to be a key sentiment cue: any fresh spike beyond recent highs could trigger profit-booking in rate-sensitive and domestic consumption names.

Global cues: All eyes on the US Fed and data

Going into the December 8 session, global risk sentiment looks cautiously constructive but event-heavy:

The US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on December 9–10 is the marquee risk event, with markets watching whether the Fed hints at more cuts in 2026 amid softening US labour and wage data. ^[19]
Investors are also tracking US indicators like JOLTS job openings and Employment Cost Index, as any upside surprise could temper expectations of aggressive easing. ^[20]
European markets ended last week modestly higher—indices like the DAX, STOXX 50, CAC 40 and FTSE 100 all closed in the green—providing a mildly supportive backdrop for risk assets. ^[21]

On the derivatives side:

GIFT Nifty was hovering near 26,300 late on Friday, with 5paisa flagging a “mildly cautious start” and a likely narrow range unless fresh domestic triggers emerge. ^[22]

In short, global cues are not outright negative, but Fed risk and the rupee story mean traders may avoid large directional bets at the opening bell.

Technical view: Nifty 50 levels to watch on Monday

Multiple technical and derivative analyses published over the weekend point to a range-bound but upward-biased setup for Nifty 50.

Short-term view (daily/hourly charts)

ET Now’s Nifty outlook for Monday highlights: ^[23]

Immediate support:
- 26,100 first, then a broader band around 26,060–26,000.
Resistance zone:
- Initial hurdle at 26,300; above that, potential extension toward 26,440.
Momentum & positioning:
- 14-day RSI near 60—healthy but not overbought.
- Heavy CALL open interest near 26,200 and significant PUT OI at 26,000; Put–Call Ratio has rebounded to around 1.19, signalling a tilt towards bullish positioning but with a clear line in the sand at 26,000.

Spider Software’s OI-based levels for December 8 add a slightly wider frame: ^[24]

Bullish trigger: Sustained move above 26,500 could open room up to 27,000.
Bearish trigger: Breakdown below 26,000 may drag Nifty toward 25,500.
Biggest options concentrations: CALLs at 26,500, PUTs at 26,000, reinforcing 26,000 as the critical support.

Bigger picture (weekly charts)

ETMarkets’ weekly technical note underscores that Nifty remains in a primary uptrend but is facing stiff resistance on every attempt beyond 26,300: ^[25]

Weekly trading range last week: 25,891–26,325.80.
Support cluster now sits around 25,900–26,000, tied to a prior trendline breakout zone.
Resistance seen at 26,300 and 26,450 in the coming week.
India VIX has dropped more than 11% week-on-week to near 10.3, consistent with a low-volatility regime but one that demands disciplined stop-losses.

What this means for Monday

For Monday’s session specifically:

Bullish scenario:
- Holding above 26,000 on dips keeps the uptrend intact; a strong push above 26,300 with improving breadth can open the path to 26,440–26,500. ^[26]
Neutral/choppy scenario:
- Repeated rejection in the 26,300 zone but defence of 26,000–25,900 would mean more sideways consolidation before the Fed and CPI data.
Risk scenario:
- A decisive break below 26,000 with rising volumes would validate the “pause before correction” view and shift focus to 25,750–25,500 support bands. ^[27]

Bank Nifty and sector watch: Financials still in focus

Spider Software’s Monday preview for Bank Nifty suggests a mildly positive bias but with clear inflection points: ^[28]

Key levels:
- Immediate support at 59,400, then 58,600.
- Resistance at 59,500 and 60,000, where supply is expected to emerge.
Above 60,000, momentum could accelerate; below 59,400, the index may retrace toward 58,600.

From a sector rotation perspective, ETMarkets’ Relative Rotation Graphs show: ^[29]

Leaders / likely outperformers:
- PSU Banks, Metals, Bank Nifty and Infrastructure indices sit in the “leading” quadrant, suggesting continued relative strength.
Laggards / likely underperformers:
- Pharma, FMCG, Media, Consumption and some Commodity indices are in the lagging quadrant.
Midcaps are showing deteriorating momentum, which aligns with their underperformance last week.

Add to this:

IT has drawn renewed interest as a weaker rupee improves export margins and the Fed turns more dovish. ^[30]
Autos and realty stand to benefit from lower borrowing costs post-rate cut, though sentiment will still hinge on how aggressively banks pass on rate reductions. ^[31]

On Monday, expect traders to:

Lean on banks and financials for directional cues, given their outsized contribution to Friday’s gains. ^[32]
Watch IT and exporters as quasi-hedges against further rupee weakness. ^[33]

Flows & volatility: DIIs vs FIIs

Flows remain the key undercurrent:

FIIs have pulled roughly $17 billion from Indian equities in 2025 so far, a major driver of currency weakness. ^[34]
Domestic institutions and SIP-driven retail flows have repeatedly stepped in to absorb weakness, as seen in Friday’s DII buying of over ₹4,000 crore versus modest FII selling. ^[35]

With India VIX near 10, options pricing still implies a calm market. But with the Fed, US tariffs, rupee at 90, and a heavy IPO and listing calendar, even a small surprise could cause sharp intraday swings from these low-volatility levels. ^[36]

New from Monday: Pre-open call auction in F&O

One structural change traders must factor in from Monday, December 8 is a new 15‑minute pre-open session for the equity derivatives (F&O) segment on NSE. ^[37]

According to NSE details carried by Mint: ^[38]

The F&O pre-open will run from 9:00 am to 9:15 am, covering both index futures and stock futures.
It will operate via a call auction with three parts:
- Order entry (9:00–9:08): traders can place, modify or cancel orders; the system may randomly close this window between the 7th and 8th minute.
- Order matching (9:08–9:12): the system discovers a single equilibrium price and matches orders; no changes allowed.
- Buffer (9:12–9:15): transition period before regular trading.
Standard limit and market orders are allowed; stop-loss and IOC orders are not, and all orders will be subjected to margin checks.

Practically, this means:

Opening price discovery in F&O should become more orderly, especially after overnight event risk like the Fed or major macro data.
Monday’s first few minutes in the cash market may reflect these pre-open equilibrium levels more cleanly—but intraday volatility around big strikes (26,000 / 26,200 / 26,500) could still be sharp.

IPO and listing pipeline: Wakefit, Corona Remedies, Meesho and more

The week starting December 8 is packed with primary market activity, which can siphon liquidity from secondary markets and create stock-specific volatility.

According to Financial Express, between December 8–12: ^[39]

Mainboard IPOs

Four mainboard issues are set to keep Dalal Street busy:

Wakefit Innovations IPO
- Opens: December 8, closes December 10
- Issue size: ~₹1,289 crore (fresh issue + OFS)
- Price band: ₹185–195 per share
Corona Remedies IPO
- Also opens December 8, closes December 10
- Entirely an OFS worth ~₹655 crore
- Price band: ₹1,008–1,062
Nephrocare Health Services
- Opens December 10–12; healthcare & dialysis services provider
- Issue size: ~₹871 crore; price band ₹438–460
Park Medi World
- Opens December 10–12; another healthcare play
- Fresh issue plus OFS totalling ~₹920 crore; price band ₹154–162

SME IPOs

Five SME issues are in focus, with three opening on Monday: KV Toys India, Prodocs Solutions and Riddhi Display Equipments. Two more—Unisem Agritech and Pajson Agro India—open later in the week. ^[40]

Lot sizes are large (1,200–4,000 shares), so even modest participation can absorb meaningful liquidity from small-cap traders.

Busy listing calendar

The listing slate is equally heavy:

On the mainboard, Meesho, Aequs and Vidya Wires are set to list on December 10.
In the SME space, a long list of names—including Speb Adhesives, Astron Multigrain, Invicta Diagnostic, Ravelcare, Clear Secured and others—are scheduled to list between December 8–12. ^[41]

For Monday, secondary market traders should:

Track subscription data for Wakefit and Corona Remedies during the day. Strong QIB and HNI bids can support broader sentiment; weak subscription could reinforce the “expensive valuations” narrative.
Be prepared for stock-specific moves as SME listings and demerger plays (like the HUL–Kwality Walls ice-cream spin-off) continue to reshuffle portfolios. ^[42]

Key triggers to watch at Monday’s opening bell

Here’s a quick checklist as you plan for the December 8 session:

Rupee opening level
- A move deeper beyond ₹90.5–91 per USD could weigh on importers, aviation, OMCs and some consumption names, even while boosting IT exporters. ^[43]
Follow-through after RBI rate cut
- Watch whether banks and financials can extend Friday’s gains or whether profit-booking emerges on “buy the rumour, sell the news” behaviour. ^[44]
Nifty 50 levels
- 26,000–26,100 as support; 26,300–26,450 as resistance. Price action and breadth here will reveal whether bulls are ready for a breakout or prefer more consolidation. ^[45]
Bank Nifty zone
- 59,400 (support) vs 59,500–60,000 (resistance band); a breakout or breakdown here can exaggerate moves in PSU and private banks. ^[46]
F&O pre-open behaviour (9:00–9:15 am)
- Check how equilibrium prices form around big strikes like 26,000 and 26,200 on Nifty and 59,500 on Bank Nifty. Large order imbalances in the new pre-open auction could foreshadow the cash market’s first half-hour. ^[47]
Global cues and Fed expectations
- Any overnight headlines around the US Fed, US–India trade talks or fresh tariffs can quickly change risk appetite. ^[48]
IPO flows and listings
- Subscription trends for Wakefit, Corona Remedies and Monday’s SME IPOs, plus sentiment around upcoming listings like Meesho, will influence risk appetite in midcaps and newly listed names. ^[49]

Trading approach: Guarded optimism rather than blind bullishness

Most research houses and technical analysts are converging on a similar message for the week starting December 8:

The larger trend for Indian equities remains positive, supported by strong GDP growth, benign inflation and RBI’s accommodative stance. ^[50]
At the same time, valuation comfort is limited, breadth is softening, the rupee is under stress, and global policy risk (Fed, US tariffs, delayed trade deals) remains high. ^[51]

For short-term traders, this translates into:

Buy-on-dips bias as long as Nifty holds above 26,000, with strict stop-loss discipline. ^[52]
Preference for quality large-caps in financials, select IT, autos and infrastructure over stretched mid- and small-caps where momentum is already fading. ^[53]
Respect for event risk: consider position sizing and hedging ahead of the US Fed decision (Dec 9–10) and India’s CPI print (Dec 12). ^[54]

And as always, none of these levels or triggers are guarantees—this is market commentary, not investment advice. Investors should align any trade or allocation with their own risk tolerance and consult a qualified adviser where needed.