Indian equities extended their sharp slide for a second straight session on Tuesday, December 9, 2025, with the Sensex and Nifty 50 under pressure from global risk-off sentiment, heavy foreign investor selling, a weakening rupee and fresh worries over potential US tariffs on Indian rice. [1]
Market snapshot: Sensex and Nifty today
- Two‑day damage: In just two sessions (Monday and Tuesday), the Sensex has lost over 1,300 points (more than 1.5%) , while the Nifty 50 is down nearly 2% , according to live market analyses. [2]
- Monday’s close (8 Dec 2025):
- Sensex: 85,102.69, down 609.68 points (‑0.71%)
- Nifty 50: 25,960.55, down 225.90 points (‑0.86%), closing below 26,000. [3]
- Today’s trade (9 Dec 2025, intraday):
- The Sensex fell about 700 points to trade below 84,400 , while the Nifty 50 slipped roughly 200 points to trade below 25,750 , extending Monday’s steep drop. [4]
- At one point, the Sensex hit an intraday low near 84,382.96 and the Nifty 50 slid to around 25,729.35 . [5]
- Early in the session, around 9:30 am IST, the Sensex was down about 626 points at ~84,477 and the Nifty around 25,761 , reflecting broad-based selling across sectors. [6]
Mid‑cap and small‑cap indices underperformed again, dropping roughly 1–1.5% , signaling that the sell‑off has been wider than just the headline indices. [7]
Five big reasons the Indian stock market is falling today
1. US Federal Reserve anxiety
Indian markets are firmly in “wait-and-watch” mode ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision on December 10 . While traders widely expect a 25 bps rate cut , the real concern is the Fed’s guidance for 2026, with several Wall Street banks now projecting a shallower easing cycle than previously hoped. [8]
This uncertainty has pushed global investors to reduce risk in equities ahead of the announcement, contributing to weak closes on Wall Street and softer Asian markets on Tuesday. [9]
2. Global market sell-off spills into Asia and India
Overnight, US indices ended lower as Treasury yields rose and traders pulled back ahead of the Fed meeting. [10]Asia followed with a cautious tone:
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped around 1%
- Japan’s Nikkei dipped modestly
- South Korea’s Kospi also traded in the red , reflecting region-wide risk aversion. [11]
Indian equities have closely tracked this global mood, with local traders using the weak cues as a trigger to unwind leveraged and short-term positions.
3. Foreign portfolio investor (FPI) selling and rupee at 90
Foreign investors have been consistent sellers in Indian equities:
- FPIs sold about ₹656 crore worth of stocks on 8 December alone, even as domestic institutions absorbed supply with net purchases above ₹2,500 crore . [12]
- In the first week of December , FPIs offloaded ₹11,820 crore , taking 2025 equity outflows to around ₹1.55 lakh crore , driven mainly by currency weakness and global portfolio rebalancing. [13]
At the same time, the rupee has slipped to about 90.15 per US dollar in early trade today , not far from last week’s record lows near 90.4–90.5. [14]
A weaker rupee:
- Reduces foreign investors’ returns when converted back to dollars
- Raises import costs (especially crude), increasing margin and inflation worries
- Reinforces the caution that’s already prevalent due to the Fed outcome
Economic Times and Reuters coverage emphasize that continued rupee weakness is a key driver of FPI selling and a major overhang for equities this month. [15]
4. Nifty weekly derivatives expiry and F&O positioning
Today is a weekly derivatives expiry session for Nifty 50 contracts , a day that typically amplifies intraday volatility. [16]
Key points from derivatives data and broker commentary:
- Heavy Call open interest is clustered between 26,100 and 26,300 , indicating strong overhead supply and capping rallies. [17]
- Put open interest is concentrated around 25,900 and 25,800 , suggesting that these levels are immediate support zones but that downside protection has weakened below 26,000. [18]
- The Nifty Put‑Call ratio has dropped to about 0.64 , signaling a clearly bearish sentiment with Call writers dominating. [19]
Ahead of expiry, the NSE has also placed Bandhan Bank, Kaynes Technology and Sammaan Capital under the F&O ban list , after their open interest crossed 95% of the market-wide position limit. [20]
5. India–US trade deal uncertainty and tariff fears on Indian rice
Markets are increasingly nervous about India–US trade negotiations and the possibility of new US tariffs on Indian rice exports :
- Reports suggest US President Donald Trump has signaled potential new tariffs on Indian rice , accusing exporters of “dumping” and pledging to protect US farmers, while also hinting at tariffs on Canadian fertilizer. [21]
- Free Press Journal and other outlets note that these headlines have raised doubts about the timing and depth of an India–US trade agreement , adding another layer of uncertainty for exporters and equity investors. [22]
This trade risk, combined with currency weakness, makes Indian assets slightly less attractive at the margin just as global investors are trimming risk.
How sectors and key stocks are moving today
Broad sector performance
Coverage across Free Press Journal, Economic Times live blogs and brokerage updates points to a broad-based sell‑off with a clear tilt toward cyclical sectors: [23]
- Worst performing sectors today:
- IT , Auto and Metal indices are down over 1% each.
- Financials, realty, private banks, PSU banks and FMCG are also trading lower, though the extent varies. [24]
- Mid‑cap and small‑cap indices are under sharper pressure, falling around 1–1.5% , reflecting risk‑off sentiment in higher‑beta counters. [25]
Heavyweights dragging the indices
In today’s trade and Monday’s slide combined, the following large caps have been repeatedly cited as major drags :
- Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, Reliance Industries, TCS, Tata Steel, UltraTech Cement, M&M, HCL Tech and BEL have all declined meaningfully, some by up to 3–3.5% over the two sessions. [26]
- GoodReturns and ET live blogs also highlight IT bellwethers (TCS, Infosys, Wipro) and select financials as key contributors to the slide today. [27]
Even so, a few defensives such as HUL and Bharti Airtel have occasionally traded in the green, underlining the classic flight to safety when volatility spikes. [28]
Pockets of strength: IPOs and earnings plays
Despite the headline weakness, some stock‑specific stories are bucking the trend:
- PhysicsWallah (PW): Shares of the recently listed edtech company jumped about 5% to around ₹145–146 after it reported a 70% year‑on‑year jump in Q2 FY26 net profit to roughly ₹69.7 crore , with revenue up about 26% YoY. [29]
- Helloji Holidays (SME): The travel company listed at ₹118 on the BSE SME platform , exactly matching its issue price, despite strong IPO subscription and gray‑market expectations of a premium. The flat debut reflects the risk‑off mood in small‑cap and SME counters. [30]
- JSW Infrastructure: The company has announced an agreement to acquire three rail logistics firms for about ₹1,212 crore , a move aimed at strengthening its hinterland connectivity; the deal has drawn attention from infrastructure‑focused investors even in a weak tape. [31]
Currency, bonds and RBI policy: the macro backdrop
RBI’s recent rate cut and bond support
The current market volatility comes just days after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) delivered its first rate cut of this cycle , lowering the repo rate by 25 bps to around 5.25% at its early-December meeting. [32]
In addition, the RBI has:
- Announced plans to buy government bonds worth about ₹500 billion via open market operations (OMOs) to cap the recent spike in yields. [33]
- Scheduled a USD/INR buy‑sell swap auction of roughly ₹45,000 crore on 16 December to inject dollar liquidity and smooth currency volatility. [34]
- Revised its FY26 growth forecast upwards to around 7.3% and trimmed its inflation outlook , signaling confidence in India’s macro fundamentals even as global risks remain. [35]
Bond markets have reacted by easing yields from recent highs , though the five-year overnight indexed swap (OIS) remains near 5.9% , indicating that traders still expect moderate, not aggressive, policy easing ahead. [36]
Rupee at record-weak levels
Currency markets remain the weak spot:
- The rupee opened today near 90.15 per US dollar , just shy of record lows seen last week. [37]
- Reports highlight dollar demand from corporates, importers and FPIs , compounded by delays in sealing an India–US trade deal. [38]
A persistently weak rupee is now one of the main reasons FPIs continue to sell , despite India’s relatively strong growth outlook.
Technical picture: Key levels for Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty
Brokerage notes from Mint, NDTV Profit, India Today and Moneycontrol broadly agree on a range‑bound but downward‑biased setup for the next few sessions. [39]
Nifty 50 technical view
- Immediate range:
- Many analysts expect the index to oscillate between 25,800 and 26,200 in the near term, unless there is a big surprise from the Fed or trade headlines. [40]
- Supports:
- Short‑term support is seen around 25,900–25,850 , aligned with a bullish gap from 12 November and the 50‑day EMA , making 25,850–25,700 a critical “line in the sand”. [41]
- If 25,800/25,840 decisively breaks , several brokerages caution that the index could slide toward 25,700 first , and then 25,500–25,300 in a deeper correction. [42]
- Resistances:
- The 21‑day moving average near 26,000 is now immediate resistance.
- Strong resistance stands in the 26,100–26,325 zone, where heavy Call OI is parked; only a sustained close above 26,200+ would meaningfully reduce downside pressure. [43]
Sensex technical view
Technical calls highlighted by Mint and other brokerages suggest: [44]
- As long as the Sensex trades below its 20‑day SMA around 85,400 , sentiment is expected to remain weak.
- On the downside, the index may slip toward 84,800 , and a further break could see 84,500 or lower .
- On the upside, a close back above 85,400 could trigger a pullback toward 85,700–85,800 , but this is seen as a relief rally rather than a trend reversal for now.
Bank Nifty technical view
Bank Nifty has also joined the correction, though banks are not yet leading the fall: [45]
- Support zone:
- Immediate support lies in the 59,000–58,900 band; below that, the index could test 58,700–58,500 .
- Resistance zone:
- Resistance is seen at 59,400–59,500 , followed by 59,800–60,000 .
- The pattern of failed attempts to hold above 59,400–59,500 alongside weak global cues keeps the short‑term bias cautious to negative .
Upcoming IPOs and primary market cues
Even amid secondary market weakness, the primary market remains active , which can influence liquidity and sentiment:
- ICICI Prudential Asset Management IPO:
- Price band set at ₹2,061–2,165 per share for a ₹10,600 crore offer for sale , implying a valuation near ₹1.07 trillion.
- The issue opens 12–16 December 2025 , with anchor investors in on 11 December. [46]
- Helloji Holidays SME listing today:
- As noted earlier, the stock listed flat at ₹118 , despite a subscription of over 30× , underscoring how risk appetite has cooled at the speculative end of the market. [47]
Strong IPO pipelines typically signal confidence in the medium‑term India story, but on days like today they also compete for investor funds , occasionally adding to near‑term selling pressure in secondary markets.
What are analysts forecasting for the rest of the week?
Putting together views from India Today, Mint, NDTV Profit, Moneycontrol and other brokerages, a broad consensus emerges for the short term: [48]
- High volatility until Fed outcome:
- Markets are likely to remain choppy and headline-driven until the Fed decision and commentary are out of the way.
- A dovish surprise (more cuts signaled for 2026) could trigger a relief rally; a hawkish tone may deepen the correction.
- Range‑bound with downward bias:
- For now, the Nifty 50 is expected to trade largely between 25,800 and 26,200 , while the Sensex oscillates roughly between 84,500 and 85,700 unless a major macro surprise emerges. [49]
- Key risk levels to watch:
- A decisive break below 25,800–25,700 on Nifty or below ~84,500 on Sensex could open room for a deeper slide toward the next supports (25,500–25,300 on Nifty, lower‑84k or even high‑83k on Sensex). [50]
- Domestic fundamentals remain supportive:
- Despite the sell‑off, FPIs are selling largely due to currency moves and global positioning , while domestic institutional and retail flows remain resilient , aided by RBI’s rate cut and upbeat growth projections. [51]
- Sector stance:
- Many strategists prefer a cautious, stock‑specific approach , favoring defensives and quality large caps over aggressive bets in small‑caps and high‑beta names until volatility cools. [52]
What should retail investors do now? (General guidance)
This is general market commentary, not personalized investment advice.
Based on today’s news flow and analyst commentary, some broad, non-personal suggestions that are repeatedly emphasized: [53]
- Avoid panic selling: Sharp two‑day corrections often look alarming, but they are not unusual after strong rallies. Selling purely out of fear at support zones like 25,800–25,700 on Nifty can lock in losses just before a technical bounce.
- Focus on asset allocation: Ensure your mix of equity, debt and cash matches your time horizon and risk appetite . If your equity allocation has run far above your target after this year’s rally, gradual rebalancing may make sense.
- Prefer quality over momentum: In phases of heightened volatility, stick to high‑quality large caps and sector leaders rather than speculative small caps or crowded momentum trades.
- Stagger fresh entries: If you are looking to buy, many experts recommend staggered SIP‑style entries rather than lump‑sum bets, especially while the Fed and global trade headlines remain fluid.
- Use volatility, don’t chase it: Traders with experience may use well‑defined levels (eg, Nifty 25,700 support / 26,200 resistance) and strict stop‑losses. Long‑term investors, however, are generally advised to ignore intraday noise and focus on fundamentals.
References
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