New York, February 15, 2026, 12:09 EST — The market is closed.
- Spot gold climbed 2.1% to $5,022.06 an ounce late Friday. U.S. April futures wrapped up roughly 2% higher, settling at $5,046.30.
- Cooler U.S. inflation numbers breathed new life into rate-cut hopes, shaking off the jolt traders took from that midweek jobs shock.
- Looking ahead: U.S. markets are closed Monday for Presidents’ Day. Federal Reserve minutes land Feb. 18, followed by GDP and PCE inflation figures set for Feb. 20.
Gold bounced sharply on Friday, gaining more than 2% to push back above $5,000 as softer U.S. inflation numbers fueled fresh bets on Fed rate cuts. Spot gold was up 2.1% at $5,022.06 an ounce by mid-afternoon in New York. U.S. April futures closed roughly 2% higher at $5,046.30. Silver rallied 3.4% to $77.70. Platinum and palladium moved up as well. Trader Tai Wong described the move as a “relief rally.” The Star
It’s relevant: gold doesn’t yield interest and tends to track changes in rate bets, bond yields, and the dollar. Markets are closed for the weekend, so all eyes turn to whether Friday’s shift in rate-cut odds sticks as trading picks up in what’s likely to be a quiet, holiday-shortened week.
January’s consumer price index ticked up 0.2%, missing estimates, and annual inflation landed at 2.4%, according to Reuters. Treasury yields fell right after the release. Phil Orlando, chief market strategist at Federated Hermes, described the inflation numbers as “better than expected.” Still, some strategists pointed out lingering price pressure beneath the surface that could muddy the Fed’s next move. Reuters
According to LSEG numbers referenced by Reuters, traders now factor in about 63 basis points in Fed rate cuts for this year, or 0.63 percentage point, with July as the likely start. The shift came after Wednesday’s payrolls surprised: 130,000 jobs for January, well above the 70,000 economists had predicted in a Reuters survey.
The dollar didn’t swing as much, though it still ended the week weaker—something that tends to support commodities priced in greenbacks. The dollar index slipped 0.07% on Friday, putting it on track for a 0.84% decline over the week, according to a Reuters currency report.
The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its Jan. 27-28 policy meeting this Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, according to the central bank’s calendar.
Markets in the U.S. are shut for Presidents’ Day on Monday, leaving traders bracing for a compressed week—lighter volume could intensify swings.
Futures are open, though trading is on a holiday timetable. CME Group’s posted President’s Day schedule affects its Globex platform, including precious-metals contracts.
Come Friday, eyes shift to growth data as the Bureau of Economic Analysis gears up for its next GDP update, set for Feb. 20.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis drops its Personal Income and Outlays report on Feb. 20, bringing the PCE price index—still the Fed’s inflation yardstick.
Still, gold’s recovery doesn’t offer much space for new shocks. If yields climb, the dollar strengthens, or Fed officials push back on the market’s aggressive rate cut hopes, we could easily see more profit-taking—especially after a stretch marked by some wild daily moves.
Markets kick off the week looking first to the Fed minutes from Feb. 18. Eyes then shift toward Friday, when both GDP and PCE inflation numbers hit the tape.
