U.S. stocks return to regular trading on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, after an early close on Dec. 24 and a full closure on Christmas Day (Dec. 25). [1]
For Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), that post-holiday open arrives with an unusually dense mix of late-December headlines: fresh scrutiny around Intel’s most ambitious manufacturing roadmap, renewed attention on its high-profile relationship with Nvidia, and the still-uncommon reality of the U.S. government holding a nearly 10% equity stake.
Below is what investors and traders should know heading into the Dec. 26 open—covering the latest news, Wall Street forecasts, and the key catalysts that could move Intel stock next.
Intel stock price check: where INTC left off heading into Dec. 26
Intel last traded during the shortened Dec. 24 session, finishing around $36.16 (with a market cap around $156B) and a 52-week range roughly between $18.72 and $44.02.
Intel’s recent high watermark matters here: $44.02 (its 52-week high) was set earlier this month, leaving the stock meaningfully below peak levels as year-end liquidity thins. [2]
Holiday trading dynamics also matter. With many institutions lightly staffed and volumes often lower, individual headlines can have an outsized impact on price moves—especially for a stock like Intel that is in the middle of a strategic reset.
The headline risk into the open: what Nvidia did (and didn’t) do with Intel’s 18A process
1) Intel–Nvidia partnership is real—and it’s big money
Intel’s late-2025 narrative has been heavily influenced by its relationship with Nvidia. The partnership announced in September included a $5 billion Nvidia investment and plans to connect Intel CPUs with Nvidia GPUs using NVLink, a high-speed interconnect that is strategically important in modern AI infrastructure. [3]
On Dec. 19, Reuters reported that the U.S. Federal Trade Commission cleared Nvidia’s investment, removing a major regulatory uncertainty around the deal. [4]
2) But the market is still debating the “foundry validation” question
This week’s sharpest Intel-specific debate is not about whether Intel and Nvidia will co-build products. It’s about whether Nvidia will ever become a meaningful manufacturing customer for Intel’s most advanced nodes.
A Reuters report published Dec. 24 described how Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan secured political backing and capital, but also noted that Nvidia tested Intel’s 18A process and then stopped moving forward, according to people familiar with the matter. The same reporting emphasized that Nvidia had not committed to manufacturing its chips at Intel. [5]
That distinction matters because external foundry customers—and credible proof that Intel can manufacture leading-edge chips reliably at scale—are central to Intel’s long-term bull case.
Why it matters for Dec. 26:
If markets reopen Friday with investors focusing on “Nvidia + Intel” as a durable strategic relationship, sentiment can stabilize. But if the dominant interpretation becomes “Nvidia tested 18A and walked,” the stock can see renewed pressure—particularly because foundry progress is the most closely watched swing factor in Intel’s turnaround story.
The Washington factor: Intel’s U.S. government stake is a tailwind—and a risk
Intel is no longer just “strategically important.” It now has an unusually direct policy relationship with Washington.
The deal terms investors keep coming back to
Intel disclosed that the U.S. government will make an $8.9 billion investment in Intel common stock, funded by $5.7B in remaining CHIPS Act grants plus $3.2B tied to the Secure Enclave program. [6]
The government agreed to purchase 433.3 million shares at $20.47 per share, representing a 9.9% stake, described as passive ownership (no board seat) with voting provisions largely aligned with Intel’s board, subject to exceptions. [7]
There is also a five-year warrant for an additional stake under certain conditions tied to Intel maintaining ownership of its foundry business. [8]
The under-discussed downside: international and regulatory friction
Reuters later reported Intel warned that the government stake could create business risks—such as potentially harming international sales, triggering foreign regulatory complications, limiting future grants, and diluting existing shareholders. [9]
That concern is not theoretical: Reuters reported Intel said 76% of revenue was outside the U.S. and China contributed 29% of revenue (based on Intel’s disclosures referenced in the Reuters report). [10]
Why it matters for Dec. 26:
In thin, post-holiday trade, investors may recalibrate how much of Intel’s valuation is now “policy-supported”—and how much of that support could complicate overseas customer relationships, supply-chain decisions, or regulatory approvals.
Another December headline investors are watching: Intel and China-linked tool scrutiny
On Dec. 12, Reuters reported Intel had tested chipmaking tools from ACM Research, a toolmaker with China roots and overseas units that were targeted by U.S. sanctions, according to sources. Reuters noted Intel said the tools “are not used” in its semiconductor production process and that it complies with applicable U.S. laws and regulations. [11]
The story also described broader policy debate in Washington—including lawmakers pushing to restrict subsidized chipmakers from using Chinese equipment in government-backed expansions. [12]
Why it matters for Dec. 26:
This is the kind of story that can resurface suddenly—especially when Intel’s manufacturing roadmap (14A/18A) is the central narrative. It’s not just about a vendor; it’s about the political and security lens through which Intel’s capex and toolchain are now judged.
Management and restructuring: Intel’s turnaround is still “in progress,” not “complete”
Layoffs and discipline remain core to the story
Earlier in 2025, Reuters reported Intel expected to end the year with a workforce more than a fifth smaller than the year before, with Tan emphasizing cost discipline and “no more blank checks.” [13]
This backdrop matters because investors aren’t only evaluating Intel on product competitiveness; they’re evaluating whether the company can fund its manufacturing ambitions without breaking the balance sheet.
Leadership moves in December
Intel also announced senior leadership appointments in mid-December, including naming Pushkar Ranade as interim Chief Technology Officer, with a mandate that includes emerging technologies and advanced strategy. [14]
Product and technology catalysts: Panther Lake and the 18A “prove-it” moment
A key near-term catalyst isn’t an earnings call—it’s execution.
Panther Lake: the first big 18A consumer product test
Reuters reported in October that Intel’s Panther Lake laptop processor—its first built on the 18A process—is slated to begin ramping with the first unit shipping before the end of 2025 and broader availability expected in January 2026. [15]
Reuters also reported Intel’s Arizona Fab 52 is fully operational and will produce both Panther Lake and the Clearwater Forest server processor aimed at AI data centers (expected in the first half of 2026). [16]
CES is the next big calendar moment
Intel is already positioning CES as a major launch moment. Intel’s event page says CES (Jan. 5–9, 2026) will feature the global launch of the latest Intel Core Ultra Series 3 processors (Panther Lake). [17]
Why it matters for Dec. 26:
The market often starts “pre-pricing” CES narratives in late December. If early leaks or previews emerge, they can move chip names—particularly those where product cycles and competitive positioning are central to 2026 expectations.
Foundry strategy: the 14A question still hangs over the stock
While 18A is the near-term proving ground, Intel’s longer-term foundry ambition increasingly pivots to what comes next.
Reuters reported in July that Intel warned it could cancel or pause future 14A development if it can’t secure a major external customer commitment, underscoring a more demand-driven approach under Tan. [18]
Separately, Reuters’ Dec. 12 reporting said the tools Intel tested were evaluated for potential use in Intel’s most advanced process, 14A, which Reuters said is due for an initial launch in 2027. [19]
Why it matters for Dec. 26:
If investors conclude that 18A is “for Intel products” while 14A is “for external foundry credibility,” then any news affecting 14A customer momentum—positive or negative—can shift Intel’s perceived long-term earnings power.
Intel’s latest quarterly picture: Q4 guidance and what it implies
Intel’s most recent official guidance (from its Q3 2025 results) matters because it sets the baseline expectations heading into the next earnings cycle:
- Q4 2025 revenue guidance:$12.8B to $13.8B
- Q4 2025 EPS guidance:Non-GAAP EPS of $0.08 (with GAAP EPS attributable to Intel expected to be negative)
- Intel noted that guidance excludes Altera following the sale of a majority stake completed in Q3 2025 [20]
That Altera note is important: when investors compare year-over-year performance, they’ll have to adjust for portfolio reshaping—not just cyclical demand.
Analyst forecasts: price targets, earnings timing, and what the options market implies
Next earnings: the market is already looking ahead to late January
Multiple market calendars estimate Intel’s next earnings date around Jan. 29, 2026 (often listed as “estimated” or “unconfirmed” until Intel officially announces it). [21]
Street targets are mixed, reflecting high uncertainty
Consensus data varies by source, but the direction is consistent: analysts are not aligned.
- One widely tracked summary shows a ~$34.84 average 12‑month price target (with targets spanning roughly $20 to $52). [22]
- Yahoo Finance shows a 1-year target estimate around $38.14 (as displayed on the quote page at the time of retrieval). [23]
The spread itself is the story: Intel is being valued less like a stable mature chip company and more like a turnaround with multiple plausible end states.
What options imply around earnings
Options-based tools suggest Intel has historically seen sizable post-earnings moves, with one dataset putting the average predicted move around ±8.3%. [24]
Dividends and capital returns: income investors still don’t have a clear “return” story
Intel’s investor relations page on dividends and buybacks says no future dividends are presently declared as of Dec. 24, 2025, and notes Intel maintains a long-running repurchase authorization (with a remaining authorized amount disclosed as of late September). [25]
For many investors, that keeps Intel firmly in the “reinvestment/turnaround” bucket rather than a classic income semiconductor holding.
Legal and regulatory footnotes still in play: EU fine reduction
Intel also faced a notable legal update this month: Reuters reported that Europe’s General Court reduced Intel’s prior EU antitrust fine to €237 million, while upholding the underlying decision tied to historical conduct. [26]
This isn’t likely to be a day-to-day stock driver by itself, but it’s part of the broader “regulatory overhang” landscape that can influence institutional sentiment.
What to watch specifically on Dec. 26: a practical checklist for INTC
Here are the clearest “market-open” focal points for Friday’s session:
- Any follow-through coverage on the Reuters report about Nvidia and Intel’s 18A test
- The key question is whether the market frames it as a temporary pause, or as a meaningful vote of no confidence. [27]
- Holiday liquidity and volatility
- Dec. 26 can be seasonally upbeat for indexes, but thin trading can amplify single-stock moves. [28]
- CES positioning (January catalyst)
- Panther Lake’s runway into January matters, especially as Intel frames CES as a major launch moment. [29]
- Policy/regulatory headlines
- Anything that touches the U.S. stake, China-related scrutiny, or the toolchain narrative can move Intel disproportionately because Intel is now a policy-symbol stock as well as a semiconductor stock. [30]
- Key reference levels investors will cite
- The market will likely reference the $44 area (recent 52-week high) and the mid-$30s zone where the stock has recently traded. [31]
Bottom line for Intel stock before the Dec. 26 open
Intel heads into the Dec. 26, 2025 session with two competing narratives in play:
- Bull case: massive strategic capital support (U.S. government + Nvidia + SoftBank), a clearer cost-discipline posture under Tan, and a major product/manufacturing test (Panther Lake on 18A) that could build confidence heading into CES and early 2026. [32]
- Bear case: foundry credibility is still unproven at scale, and headlines suggesting Nvidia is not (yet) ready to validate Intel’s manufacturing process can keep pressure on valuation—especially with added geopolitical and regulatory complexity now attached to Intel’s turnaround. [33]
For Friday’s open, expect the stock to trade less on “broad chip sentiment” and more on how investors weigh one question: Is Intel’s manufacturing comeback gaining real external traction—or still mostly a story waiting for proof?
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
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