Intel Stock Before the Bell on December 1, 2025: Apple Foundry Rumors, TSMC Probe and AI Deals Put INTC in the Spotlight

As U.S. markets prepare to reopen on Monday, December 1, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) enters December as one of 2025’s most closely watched turnaround stories. The stock closed Black Friday at $40.56, up about 10% in a single session and roughly 84% year-to-date, leaving shares only a few percent below their 52‑week high of $42.48. TS2 Tech+1

From November 28–30, a cluster of catalysts reshaped the narrative around Intel stock:

Intensifying rumors of a foundry deal with Apple for future M‑series processors. ^[1]
A trade‑secrets lawsuit and criminal probe involving a former TSMC executive now at Intel. ^[2]
Fresh focus on Intel’s AI roadmap, Nvidia partnership and CHIPS Act backing, highlighted in Q3 results and conference presentations. ^[3]
Evidence of heavy institutional buying, even as Wall Street’s average price target sits well below the current share price. ^[4]

Here’s what investors need to know about Intel stock heading into the December 1 open, based on the news flow from November 28–30, 2025.

Where Intel Stock Stands Before the December 1 Open

Price & performance

Last close: $40.56 (Friday, Nov. 28, 2025), up about 10.2% on the day. ^[5]
52‑week range: $17.67 – $42.48, putting the stock roughly 130% above its 52‑week low and about 4–5% below its high. ^[6]
Year‑to‑date performance: around +83–84% vs roughly +15–16% for the S&P 500. TS2 Tech
Market cap: about $194 billion. ^[7]

Recent gains are highly concentrated in November, with Intel up more than 20% over the last week alone, helped by AI optimism and speculation about new marquee customers. TS2 Tech

Fundamentals in the background

Intel’s Q3 2025 results, released October 23, showed revenue of $13.7 billion, up 3% year‑on‑year, with non‑GAAP EPS of $0.23, beating expectations. Management guided for Q4 revenue of $12.8–13.8 billion and non‑GAAP EPS of about $0.08, reflecting a still‑early profit recovery. ^[8]

Because net margins remain thin (around 0.4% in recent filings), traditional GAAP P/E metrics look extreme — MarketBeat pegs a headline P/E above 4,000x — even though adjusted earnings and cash flow are improving. ^[9]

1. Apple Foundry Rumors Ignite a Black Friday Spike (Nov. 28)

The biggest story for Intel stock between November 28 and 30 is the renewed wave of reports that Apple may tap Intel as a future foundry partner for its M‑series chips.

What markets heard

SiliconANGLE reported that Intel shares closed about 10% higher on November 28 after well‑known Apple analyst Ming‑Chi Kuo said his latest checks show the odds of Intel becoming an advanced‑node supplier to Apple have “improved significantly.” ^[10]
Kuo’s note, echoed in coverage from Economic Times and other outlets, suggests: TS2 Tech
- Apple has signed an NDA with Intel and is already working with an 18AP process design kit (PDK).
- Intel is expected to deliver PDK 1.0/1.1 in Q1 2026, a key step for final chip design.
- If milestones are met, Intel could begin shipping entry‑level M‑series processors on its 18AP node in Q2–Q3 2027, targeting MacBook Air and iPad Pro volumes of roughly 15–20 million units annually.

Investopedia’s market wrap on Black Friday noted that Intel was the best‑performing stock in the S&P 500, surging about 10.2% after an analyst suggested the company could become a foundry supplier for Apple processors. ^[11]

TipRanks and other outlets likewise highlighted that the stock jumped around 10% on November 28 as reports circulated that Intel might start manufacturing Apple’s M‑series chips as early as 2027. ^[12]

Why it matters so much for Intel

For Intel, the potential Apple deal is less about one product line and more about validation:

Intel is attempting a historic reboot of its foundry business with cutting‑edge process nodes such as Intel 18A and 18AP, aiming to compete directly with TSMC and Samsung after years of delays. TS2 Tech+1
Landing Apple as an external customer—even for “only” lower‑end M chips—would be a high‑credibility reference, signaling that Intel’s process technology is once again trusted for multi‑billion‑dollar product families. TS2 Tech+1

So far no formal manufacturing agreement has been announced, and both Intel and Apple have declined to comment to some outlets. TS2 Tech+1 Markets, however, are clearly pricing in a higher probability that Intel secures at least some Apple volume later this decade.

2. Tariff Delay and New CIO Add Supportive Tailwinds (Nov. 28)

A separate catalyst on November 28 came from trade policy and leadership news.

Tariff reprieve boosts chip sentiment

StocksToTrade highlighted that Intel shares were trading nearly 9% higher intraday on November 28 as U.S. officials delayed planned semiconductor tariffs, easing some cost pressures for chip producers. ^[13]

The article framed the delay as:

A relief for semiconductor supply chains, offering breathing room on input costs.
A positive for companies like Intel that are balancing heavy capex with the need to restore profitability. ^[14]

Cindy Stoddard steps in as CIO on December 1

The same StocksToTrade piece also pointed to Intel’s appointment of Cindy (Cynthia) Stoddard as a key near‑term positive. ^[15]

Intel’s own press release on November 18 confirms that Stoddard, a highly regarded former Adobe CIO, has been named senior vice president and chief information officer, effective December 1, 2025. ^[16]

She will report directly to CEO Lip‑Bu Tan and lead Intel’s global IT organization.
Her remit is to accelerate Intel’s digital transformation, modernize core systems and expand data integration, including internal AI‑driven IT initiatives. ^[17]

Because Stoddard’s appointment takes effect the same day markets reopen, December 1 becomes an unofficial checkpoint for investors watching how Intel executes its internal modernization.

3. TSMC Trade‑Secrets Lawsuit Adds Legal Risk (News Through Nov. 28)

While the Apple narrative has thrilled bulls, a trade‑secrets case involving TSMC is adding a very different kind of headline risk.

What TSMC alleges

On November 25, TSMC filed a lawsuit in Taiwan’s Intellectual Property and Commercial Court against Wei‑Jen Lo, its former senior vice president, accusing him of a high risk of leaking trade secrets to Intel after joining the U.S. chipmaker. TS2 Tech+1
Reuters reports that Taiwan prosecutors later raided Lo’s homes, seizing computers and storage devices, and that he is being investigated for potential violations of Taiwan’s National Security Act and Trade Secrets Act. ^[18]

Lo spent more than two decades at TSMC working on cutting‑edge 5nm, 3nm and 2nm technologies, after previously working at Intel for 18 years. ^[19]

Intel’s response

Both Reuters and Tom’s Hardware report that: ^[20]

Intel denies any wrongdoing, saying it has “no reason to believe” the allegations have merit.
CEO Lip‑Bu Tan told employees in an internal memo that the company fully backs Lo, emphasizing Intel’s “rigorous policies and controls” that prohibit using third‑party confidential information.

At this stage:

The lawsuit is aimed at Lo personally, not Intel as a corporate defendant.
There is no public allegation that Intel’s current process technology contains stolen TSMC IP. ^[21]

Still, for a company trying to convince top chip designers to entrust their most sensitive designs to Intel Foundry, a high‑profile trade‑secrets case is a clear reputational overhang.

4. AI Roadmap, Nvidia Deal and CHIPS Act Funding Underpin the Turnaround

Beyond the three‑day news window, November 28–30 coverage repeatedly referenced foundational developments from earlier in 2025 that underpin Intel’s rally.

Q3 2025: AI and foundry progress

Intel’s Q3 2025 earnings release highlighted: ^[22]

Revenue: $13.7 billion, up 3% year‑on‑year.
Non‑GAAP EPS: $0.23, beating expectations and swinging from a loss a year earlier.
Guidance: Q4 revenue of $12.8–13.8 billion and non‑GAAP EPS of about $0.08.
A roadmap built around:
- Intel Core Ultra (“Panther Lake”) AI PCs on the 18A node.
- Xeon 6+ (“Clearwater Forest”) server CPUs.
- An inference‑focused GPU (“Crescent Island”) for AI workloads.
- Expanded 18A capacity via new fabs such as Fab 52 in Arizona.

These product and fab milestones are central to the narrative that Intel can compete again in AI and advanced logic manufacturing.

Nvidia’s $5 billion equity bet

In September, Nvidia and Intel announced a comprehensive partnership: ^[23]

Nvidia will invest $5 billion in Intel common stock at a fixed price of $23.28 per share.
The companies will co‑develop custom data‑center CPUs and x86 system‑on‑chips for PCs that integrate Nvidia RTX GPU chiplets, leveraging Nvidia’s NVLink interconnect.

Coverage from Investors.com and others described the deal as a “transformative” moment for Intel that could accelerate its AI ambitions and help justify its massive foundry investment.

U.S. government stake via CHIPS Act

In August, Intel and the U.S. government reached a landmark CHIPS Act agreement: ^[24]

The U.S. will take a 9.9% equity stake in Intel by purchasing about $8.9 billion of common stock, with options for additional shares.
Intel also amended its CHIPS deal to receive $5.7 billion of funding earlier than scheduled, supporting its U.S. fab build‑out.

This makes Intel something of a “national champion” in advanced chipmaking—a point some analysts tie directly to the Apple foundry rumors and the geopolitical push to bring more semiconductor production onshore.

5. RBC Tech Conference: Strategy, Constraints and AI Focus (Nov. 29 Coverage)

On November 29, Insider Monkey published a recap of Intel’s presentation at the RBC Capital Markets Global Technology, Internet, Media & Telecom Conference. ^[25]

Key themes from Intel VP John Pitzer’s remarks:

Supply constraints: Intel expects supply constraints—especially on leading‑edge wafers—to peak in Q1 2026, even as AI demand remains strong.
AI‑first roadmap: The company is focusing on:
- AI PCs with on‑device NPUs.
- AI‑optimized server CPUs.
- Inference‑centric GPUs aimed at cost‑efficient AI rather than chasing Nvidia’s absolute performance lead.
Nvidia partnership as proof point: The $5 billion Nvidia equity stake and custom Xeon collaboration are framed as external validation that Intel’s manufacturing and x86 platforms still matter in the AI era. ^[26]
Margin ambitions: Management reiterated goals to rebuild gross margins to levels more comparable with fabless peers, via higher fab utilization, cost discipline and a richer product mix. TS2 Tech+1

This messaging ties back directly to the stock move: the market is no longer pricing Intel as a broken story, but as a high‑risk, high‑reward turnaround hinged on AI and foundry execution.

6. Big Money Flows In, But Analyst Targets Lag (Nov. 29–30)

Another major theme in the November 29–30 news flow is the contrast between institutional buying and cautious analyst sentiment.

Institutional buying accelerates

MarketBeat’s November 29–30 filings summaries highlight a wave of institutional accumulation: ^[27]

J.W. Cole Advisors increased its Intel stake by 8.8% to 88,644 shares (about $2.0 million).
West Family Investments raised its holdings by 84%, buying 10,692 additional shares.
Schroder Investment Management boosted its position by 60.2% to over 8.3 million shares.
Larger holders such as Vanguard and Geode Capital also added shares earlier in the year.

Across these reports, MarketBeat estimates that about 64.5% of Intel’s float is now owned by institutions and hedge funds, consistent with figures cited in other coverage. TS2 Tech+1

Wall Street still skeptical

Despite the buying, MarketBeat data show that analysts remain cautious: ^[28]

Rating mix: 2 Buys, 24 Holds and 8 Sells.
Average rating: effectively “Reduce.”
Consensus 12‑month price target: around $34.84, which is roughly 14% below Friday’s $40.56 close.

Other research aggregators cited in ts2.tech similarly describe the broader view as “Hold,” with targets clustered in the low‑ to mid‑$30s—well under the current share price. TS2 Tech

In other words, positioning and price have run far ahead of published targets, raising the bar for Intel to keep delivering positive surprises.

7. How All This Sets Up Intel Stock for December 1

With markets closed over the weekend, there are no pre‑market price indications yet for December 1. But the drivers that could shape Monday’s trading are clear:

Bullish forces heading into Monday

Apple foundry speculation
- Investors will watch for any follow‑up commentary from Apple, Intel or analysts that either strengthens or weakens the perceived odds of a 2027 M‑series manufacturing deal. ^[29]
AI and GPU tailwinds
- With forecasts calling for the U.S. GPU market to expand from about $19 billion in 2023 to over $130 billion by 2033, investors are betting that Intel’s AI PC and inference GPU roadmap gives it multiple ways to participate in AI growth beyond data‑center training chips. TS2 Tech+1
Strategic partnerships and state backing
- The Nvidia partnership, U.S. government stake and ongoing CHIPS funding collectively reduce financing risk and cast Intel as a key U.S. strategic asset, which can help attract long‑term capital even through volatility. ^[30]
Institutional demand
- Fresh 13F data show broad‑based institutional accumulation, suggesting that large investors view the current rally as more than just a short squeeze. ^[31]

Key risks that could trigger volatility

TSMC legal overhang
- Any new steps in the Wei‑Jen Lo case—charges, injunctions, or heightened scrutiny from Taiwan’s authorities—could raise questions about Intel’s foundry ethics and customer relationships, even if Intel avoids direct liability. ^[32]
Execution risk on 18A / 18AP and 14A
- Intel still needs to prove that its aggressive process roadmap can deliver yield, volume and competitive performance on time. Investors have heard ambitious roadmaps from Intel before and will look for tangible proof over the next 2–3 years. TS2 Tech+2Intel Corporation+2
Valuation vs. expectations
- With Intel trading near its 52‑week high and well above consensus price targets, any disappointment on margins, capex, or customer wins could spark sharp pullbacks. ^[33]
Macro and policy uncertainty
- The current boost from delayed semiconductor tariffs could reverse if trade policy hardens again, reigniting worries about cost inflation and demand headwinds across the chip sector. ^[34]

Bottom Line: Intel Enters December at a Crossroads

As of Sunday, November 30, 2025, Intel stock sits at the intersection of hype and hard reality:

The bull case centers on Apple possibly joining Nvidia and the U.S. government as cornerstone partners in Intel’s foundry and AI comeback, supported by improving earnings and a deep AI product pipeline. TS2 Tech+2Intel Corporation+2
The bear case points to legal uncertainty around the TSMC dispute, the difficulty of executing a multi‑node process turnaround, and valuation that already bakes in a lot of good news while consensus targets remain far lower. ^[35]

When the bell rings on Monday, December 1, traders and longer‑term investors alike are likely to focus on three questions:

Does any new information this week confirm or cast doubt on the rumored Apple foundry deal?
Do regulators and courts escalate or de‑escalate pressure in the TSMC–Lo case?
Can Intel continue to translate partnerships and policy support into tangible financial progress as it moves through Q4 and into 2026?

The answers will determine whether Intel’s Black Friday breakout becomes the start of a sustained new chapter—or just another sharp rally in an already volatile turnaround story.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

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