NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 17:58 ET
Intel Corp ended the final session of 2025 down 1.1% at $36.90, but the average Wall Street target sits lower going into 2026. MarketBeat data put the average analyst target at $34.84 and the consensus rating at “Reduce,” with two buys, 24 holds and eight sells. MarketBeat
The cautious setup matters now because Intel’s turnaround story is shifting from financing and restructuring to delivery. Investors want evidence the chipmaker can improve performance in its core PC and server businesses while proving its manufacturing roadmap can compete at the leading edge.
A key support for sentiment has been Nvidia’s $5 billion equity investment, which gave Intel a high-profile partner and additional capital as demand for AI infrastructure reshapes chip spending. Intel said in a filing that Nvidia bought more than 214.7 million Intel shares at $23.28 per share in a private placement, a transaction first announced in September and cleared by U.S. antitrust authorities earlier in December. Reuters
In October, Intel’s shares jumped after it surpassed quarterly profit estimates and highlighted aggressive cost cuts under CEO Lip-Bu Tan. “Intel has turned a corner and is steadying the ship,” said Ben Bajarin, CEO of Creative Strategies, while finance chief Dave Zinsner cautioned that yields — the share of chips per wafer that meet quality standards — on Intel’s advanced 18A manufacturing process would not reach acceptable levels until 2027. Reuters
The company’s next big proof point is Panther Lake, a high-end laptop chip built entirely on the 18A process. Four sources briefed on the plans told Reuters in October that Intel executives have said Panther Lake will be available early in 2026 and is expected to use about 30% less energy than the prior generation. Reuters
The risk case is also tied to whether Intel can attract outside customers to its newest production technology. Reuters reported last week that Nvidia tested Intel’s 18A process but stopped moving forward, raising questions about how quickly Intel can turn technical progress into external demand. Reuters
Intel’s contract-manufacturing push, known as the foundry business, means making chips for other designers rather than only for its own products. That puts Intel in direct competition with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, while its PC and data-center processor franchises continue to face pressure from Advanced Micro Devices.
The broader market backdrop remains sensitive to AI expectations heading into 2026 after a strong year for U.S. stocks. Reuters reported on Wednesday that investors were closing out a “roller-coaster” 2025 amid ongoing enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and renewed focus on how the technology spreads through the economy. Reuters
For Intel, the 2026 debate comes down to execution: product launches, manufacturing yields and the pace of customer commitments. Any delays can weigh on margins, while signs of steady 18A output and early Panther Lake uptake could strengthen the bull case.
Price targets remain dispersed, reflecting disagreements about how quickly Intel can narrow performance gaps, whether it can monetize manufacturing capacity, and how long it will take for investment-heavy plans to show up in earnings.
With the consensus target below the latest close, Intel’s stock in 2026 is set up as a proving-ground trade rather than a clean momentum bet. Investors will be looking for clear milestones on chips, factories and customers to justify the next leg higher.
