December 25, 2025 — Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) heads into the Christmas holiday with its turnaround narrative as loud as ever—and just as contested. After a volatile Christmas Eve session, Intel stock last traded at $36.18 (Dec. 24 close), down 0.56% on the day, with a $172B market cap and a 52-week range spanning roughly $18.59 to $44.02.
The big reason the stock is back in headlines this week: reports that Nvidia tested Intel’s advanced 18A manufacturing process but stopped moving forward, a development that lands directly on the most sensitive part of Intel’s story—whether Intel Foundry can win (and keep) top-tier customers at leading-edge nodes. [1]
At the same time, Intel has powerful tailwinds that very few companies on Earth can claim, including a landmark agreement that makes the U.S. government a major Intel shareholder, plus a widening set of market debates about potential foundry customers (including Apple) and whether Intel’s improving margins can outpace its enormous execution risk. [2]
Below is the full, up-to-date picture of Intel stock news, forecasts, and analysis as of Dec. 25, 2025.
Intel stock today: where INTC stands heading into the holiday break
U.S. markets are closed on Christmas Day, so Intel stock’s latest official pricing reflects Dec. 24 trading. INTC finished that session at $36.18, after ranging from about $34.95 to $36.18 intraday.
Two numbers matter for sentiment:
- INTC is still well below its $44.02 52-week high (about 18% under it), which shows the rally has cooled even as the turnaround headlines keep coming.
- Yet the broader 2025 arc remains dramatic: Reuters reports Intel shares are up around 80% since CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s appointment, reflecting a market that has been willing—at least at times—to pay for the “Intel is back” storyline. [3]
That storyline now hinges on one question that sounds simple but is brutally hard in semiconductor reality:
Can Intel build leading-edge chips reliably and profitably—at scale—while also convincing other elite chip designers to trust Intel as a manufacturing partner?
The week’s market-moving headline: Nvidia tested Intel’s 18A—then paused
Multiple reports this week—citing Reuters—say Nvidia evaluated Intel’s 18A process as a potential manufacturing option but stopped moving forward. Intel, for its part, said its 18A technologies are “progressing well” and that it continues to see interest for next-generation process offerings. [4]
Why this matters (and why it stings)
Intel’s long-term bull case increasingly depends on Intel Foundry becoming a credible alternative to incumbent leaders—especially TSMC—for advanced-node manufacturing. A high-profile “yes” from Nvidia would have been a symbolic (and likely financial) win. A “not now” (or “not this node”) amplifies skepticism that Intel can convert interest into committed volume at the cutting edge.
Importantly, the reporting does not necessarily mean Nvidia will never manufacture with Intel; it does mean that 18A is not (yet) a validated green light for Nvidia production—at least based on what’s been disclosed. [5]
Intel’s counterpoint: Fab 52, 18A production, and the “this is normal” argument
Intel and its supporters can credibly argue that:
- Advanced-node adoption is iterative. Testing, pausing, and revisiting is common as designs and process design kits (PDKs) evolve.
- Intel has pointed to Fab 52 in Arizona as a major manufacturing milestone tied to 18A. [6]
The market, however, tends to judge foundry credibility by a harsher scoreboard: who commits, who ships, and who repeats.
Political and capital tailwind: the U.S. government becomes an Intel shareholder
Intel’s 2025 story is impossible to separate from U.S. industrial policy—and that link tightened further with Intel’s announcement of a historic agreement with the Trump Administration.
According to Intel, the agreement includes:
- A $8.9 billion investment by the U.S. government in Intel common stock
- Funded by remaining CHIPS Act grant amounts previously awarded but not yet paid, plus Secure Enclave program funding
- The purchase of 433.3 million shares at $20.47 per share, representing a 9.9% stake
- A passive stake with no board representation, and a framework in which the government votes with Intel’s board subject to limited exceptions
- A five-year warrant tied to an additional stake under certain conditions related to Intel’s foundry ownership [7]
The Reuters view: a “lifeline” deal and a new kind of corporate backdrop
Reuters’ reporting adds color: it frames the government stake as part of a high-stakes political scramble and a pivotal meeting that helped transform Intel into a “too strategic to fail” style asset in the public imagination—while also surfacing internal debate about whether CEO Lip-Bu Tan has the technical depth needed for a manufacturing renaissance. [8]
For investors, the implication is double-edged:
- Pro: Intel has unusually strong strategic backing and improved access to capital and partners.
- Con: Political entanglement can change incentives, timelines, and risk—sometimes in unpredictable ways.
Other key INTC headlines investors are weighing right now
1) Nvidia’s $5B investment cleared by U.S. antitrust agencies
Reuters reports U.S. antitrust agencies cleared Nvidia’s investment in Intel, according to an FTC notice—removing a regulatory overhang from a deal Nvidia announced in September. [9]
2) Intel decided to keep its Networking and Communications unit
In early December, Intel said it would keep its networking and communications unit (NEX) after reviewing strategic options—signaling a shift away from divestiture talk, enabled (per Reuters) by a stronger cash position following major capital injections (including the government deal and Nvidia/SoftBank investments). [10]
Earnings and fundamentals: margins are improving, but the turnaround still has gravity
Intel’s most recent earnings snapshot (Q3 2025) showed clear improvement on key profitability metrics:
- Revenue:$13.7B, up 3% YoY
- Non-GAAP EPS:$0.23
- Non-GAAP gross margin:40.0% (up sharply from the prior year)
- Q4 2025 guidance: revenue $12.8B–$13.8B, non-GAAP EPS $0.08 [11]
Intel’s CEO framed the quarter as improved execution against strategic priorities and pointed to AI-driven compute demand across Intel’s portfolio, including x86 platforms and foundry services. Intel’s CFO said the company strengthened its balance sheet and emphasized that demand is outpacing supply—a trend Intel expects could persist into 2026. [12]
Zacks’ analysis echoed the margin recovery narrative, highlighting the non-GAAP gross profit expansion and pointing to client computing traction (including AI PC momentum) alongside cost discipline. [13]
The structural challenge
Even with better margins, Intel still faces the classic two-front war:
- Defend and grow products (client and data center) against brutal competitors.
- Rebuild manufacturing leadership while running a foundry business that demands consistency and scale.
That second front is exactly where the Nvidia 18A headline lands.
Foundry roadmap: 18A is the near-term proof point; 14A is the next credibility test
Panther Lake and 18A “high-volume production”
Intel has said its Panther Lake processors—built on 18A—are expected to enter high-volume production by the end of 2025, with broader availability projected for January 2026 (per Barron’s reporting). [14]
This matters because internal volume ramps can provide the learning cycles (yield improvements, defect reduction, design-manufacturing feedback loops) that ultimately make an external foundry offering more believable.
High-NA EUV: a concrete milestone for 14A ambitions
A separate, highly technical but highly meaningful development: Tom’s Hardware reports Intel installed ASML’s Twinscan EXE:5200B, described as the first commercial High-NA EUV lithography tool, and that it will be used to develop Intel’s 14A node. [15]
In normal-person terms: this is the kind of expensive, real-world manufacturing infrastructure that serious leading-edge roadmaps require. It doesn’t guarantee success—but it does demonstrate intent, progress, and access to frontier tooling.
The uncomfortable truth about timelines: yields and “industry standard”
Reporting earlier this fall noted that Intel’s 18A progress has been steady but that yield improvement timelines can stretch, with yield levels potentially reaching “industry standard” later in the decade (as characterized in that coverage). [16]
If you’re trying to understand why Intel stock can rip higher on hopeful headlines and then drop sharply on a single foundry doubt—this is why. The market is pricing not just a quarter, but a multi-year manufacturing probability distribution.
Apple foundry rumors and customer-watch: potential validation, not yet a contract
Intel’s foundry “customer win” narrative has been boosted by a steady drumbeat of reports and analyst notes suggesting Apple could eventually source some chips from Intel.
The Verge, citing supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, reported that:
- Apple may be positioned to use Intel as an advanced-node supplier for low-end M-series chips around 2027
- Apple reportedly has an NDA to acquire Intel’s 18AP PDK (process design kit) and is waiting for further kit deliveries projected for Q1 2026 [17]
Separately, PC Gamer pointed to research suggesting Intel could be on track to secure manufacturing and/or packaging orders from major names like Apple, Broadcom, and Google—though such reporting remains inherently speculative until confirmed by the companies involved. [18]
Why “advanced packaging” keeps coming up
One of the more grounded angles isn’t “Intel wins all of Apple’s chips,” but rather Intel wins packaging and hybrid manufacturing programs—areas where the foundry business can expand even if the most elite leading-edge wafers remain concentrated at incumbents.
That thesis appears in Bank of America commentary summarized in a Dec. 25 report: BofA raised its Intel price target to $40 from $34 while maintaining an Underperform rating, citing opportunities for Intel Foundry in advanced packaging and wafer design, but also flagging manufacturing uncertainties as a reason for caution. [19]
Analyst forecasts for Intel stock: cautious consensus, wide dispersion
Intel’s share price performance has been strong in 2025, but analyst consensus remains notably restrained—suggesting the market rally is at least partly a “show me” trade.
Consensus targets and ratings
- StockAnalysis.com lists a consensus “Hold” with an average price target of $31.98 (targets last updated Nov. 4, 2025), implying downside relative to the mid-$30s price zone. [20]
- MarketBeat describes an average rating of “Reduce” and a consensus target price around $34.84, reflecting a large bloc of Holds plus a meaningful number of Sells. [21]
Notable firm-level calls mentioned in recent coverage
- Bank of America: target $40, rating Underperform, with emphasis on packaging upside but manufacturing headwinds. [22]
- Cantor Fitzgerald: maintained Neutral while raising its price target to $45 (from $24.80 earlier), suggesting profits could be taken near that level absent major fundamental improvement, and noting longer timing for meaningful foundry commitments. [23]
- Zacks: characterized INTC as a Hold (Rank #3 in the referenced piece) while highlighting margin expansion and mixed earnings estimate revisions. [24]
What the dispersion is really telling you
Intel’s targets range from $20 on the low end to $52 on the high end in one widely cited compilation. [25]
That kind of spread is the market admitting something out loud:
This is not a “steady compounder” narrative right now. It’s an execution-and-proof narrative.
Outlook for 2026: catalysts that could move Intel stock—and the risks that could hit hardest
Key catalysts on the calendar
- Next earnings report (Q4 2025): MarketBeat lists an estimated earnings date of Jan. 29, 2026 (Intel has not confirmed in that listing). [26]
- Panther Lake rollout: with production ramp language pointing to end-2025 and availability around January 2026, this is a near-term “proof-of-18A” storyline to watch closely. [27]
- Foundry customer announcements: any concrete external commitments—especially at advanced nodes or meaningful packaging programs—could re-rate the stock quickly (in either direction).
- 14A progress updates: the High-NA EUV milestone is tangible; the next step is translating tools into repeatable manufacturing outcomes. [28]
The biggest risks investors are debating
- Foundry credibility risk: If additional reports emerge of major customers pausing or declining leading-edge production plans, Intel stock can reprice sharply (as seen this week). [29]
- Timeline risk: Manufacturing roadmaps are long; markets are impatient. Even “good progress” can still be “not good enough, soon enough.” [30]
- Competitive pressure: AMD, Nvidia, and TSMC remain formidable in their respective domains, and the AI infrastructure cycle rewards leaders aggressively. [31]
- Policy and governance complexity: The U.S. government stake is a unique tailwind—but it also adds a layer of political and strategic constraints that normal mega-cap investors rarely have to model. [32]
Bottom line on Intel stock on Dec. 25, 2025
Intel stock is ending the year in a familiar—but intensified—state: a stronger balance sheet, improving margins, and massive strategic backing, paired with foundry execution questions that can still knock the stock around on a single headline. [33]
The most honest synthesis of today’s coverage is this:
- The bull case still has oxygen: U.S. industrial policy support, a cleaner regulatory path for Nvidia’s investment, real manufacturing tooling progress, and a product roadmap entering a critical launch window. [34]
- The bear case still has teeth: if 18A (and later 14A) can’t convert “interest” into durable customer commitments and profitable scale, the rally risks turning into a long, expensive plateau. [35]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. newsroom.intel.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.advisorperspectives.com, 7. newsroom.intel.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.intc.com, 12. www.intc.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.barrons.com, 15. www.tomshardware.com, 16. www.tomshardware.com, 17. www.theverge.com, 18. www.pcgamer.com, 19. finviz.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. finviz.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.barrons.com, 28. www.tomshardware.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.tomshardware.com, 31. www.nasdaq.com, 32. newsroom.intel.com, 33. www.intc.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.investing.com
