Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) just delivered one of its most politically charged and governance‑heavy trading sessions of 2025. The stock sold off sharply on Thursday, December 11, as investors digested fresh investigations into CEO Lip‑Bu Tan’s dealmaking, a high‑profile lawsuit over chips allegedly ending up in Russian missiles, and a new European Union antitrust ruling.
Here’s a concise, news‑ready rundown of what happened after the bell — and the key risks and catalysts traders should watch before the U.S. market opens on Friday, December 12, 2025.
Intel stock today: sharp drop, modest after‑hours drift
Intel shares closed Thursday at $39.51, down about 3.1% on the day, underperforming the broader market as the S&P 500 inched higher. [1]
According to real‑time price data and historical feeds:
- Regular session close (Dec 11, 2025): $39.51, down $1.27 (‑3.11%). [2]
- After‑hours quote (around 5:19 p.m. ET): roughly $39.43, a further slip of about 0.2%. [3]
- Recent range: 12‑month low near $17.67 and a high around $44.02, meaning Intel is still not far from its yearly peak despite today’s pullback. [4]
Even after Thursday’s drop, Intel remains one of 2025’s biggest turnaround stories in large‑cap tech: its share price has roughly doubled over the last 12 months, recovering from a brutal 2024 slump. [5]
Why the stock is under pressure: governance, conflicts and missiles
1. Reuters investigation into CEO Lip‑Bu Tan’s deals
A fresh Reuters investigation, amplified across global media, alleges that Intel CEO Lip‑Bu Tan helped steer the company toward deals that also benefited his own venture‑capital portfolio. [6]
Key points from the reporting:
- Tan chaired AI startup Rivos while also running Intel, and pitched Intel’s board on buying the company in 2025. The board pushed back, citing conflicts of interest and a lack of a clear AI strategy to justify the acquisition. [7]
- Intel later engaged in bidding talks anyway, competing with Meta Platforms for Rivos and helping drive the startup’s valuation higher, potentially boosting Tan’s personal stake. [8]
- Reuters identifies at least three instances where Intel either explored buying or directly invested in startups in which Tan had pre‑existing financial interests. [9]
- Intel has since implemented policies requiring Tan to recuse himself from investment decisions where he could benefit personally, shifting more authority to CFO David Zinsner and board committees. [10]
Tech and business outlets from TechZine to Times of India and TECHi have piled on the story, highlighting Tan’s wide‑ranging stakes in hundreds of Chinese companies, some reportedly with military ties, and questioning whether that is compatible with Intel’s role as a strategic U.S. asset. [11]
This governance overhang is now front‑and‑center for equity investors who had been focused mainly on AI growth and cost cuts.
2. Lawsuits over chips in Russian missiles
Separately, new civil lawsuits in Texas allege that Intel chips ended up in Russian missiles and drones used in the war in Ukraine, despite export controls. [12]
A detailed breakdown from TipRanks notes that:
- Plaintiffs claim Intel (and other chipmakers) failed to prevent intermediaries from reselling restricted components into Russia.
- The suits accuse Intel of “willful ignorance” while third‑party distributors allegedly routed restricted chips into weapons systems. [13]
Intel has previously said it complies with all sanctions and exited the Russian market early in the conflict. [14]
From a market perspective, the bigger issue isn’t immediate damages — which are speculative and likely years away — but ESG and reputational risk. Commentators warn that large institutional investors with environmental, social and governance mandates may react sensitively to allegations that U.S. technology was used in attacks that killed civilians, even before courts rule on the merits. [15]
3. EU antitrust case: a legacy headache returns
On December 10, Europe’s General Court upheld an EU antitrust ruling against Intel but cut the fine by roughly a third, from €376 million to €237 million (around $278 million). [16]
The case dates back more than a decade and centers on so‑called “naked restrictions” — payments Intel made to OEMs like HP, Acer and Lenovo between 2002 and 2006 to delay or block AMD‑based PCs. [17]
For investors:
- Financially, the reduced fine is manageable and already largely expected.
- Symbolically, the ruling re‑affirms findings of anti‑competitive behavior and keeps Intel on regulators’ radar in both Brussels and Washington. [18]
The antitrust twist also lands just as Intel is seeking massive subsidies, defending its foundry strategy and positioning itself as a national‑security champion in the U.S. and EU.
4. New PCIe security flaws hit Intel Xeon chips
Adding to the noise, Intel and AMD both confirmed on Thursday that some of their processors are affected by three new PCI Express vulnerabilities (CVE‑2025‑9612, ‑9613 and ‑9614). [19]
Security researchers say:
- Attackers with physical or low‑level access to the PCIe Integrity and Data Encryption interface could trigger stale or incorrect data reads.
- In worst‑case scenarios, that could potentially lead to data leakage, privilege escalation or denial‑of‑service, though the flaws are classified as low‑severity and require significant access. [20]
So far, this looks more like a patch‑management and enterprise‑IT headache than a thesis‑changing event for Intel’s stock — but it reinforces the theme that operational and cyber risks are never far away for core infrastructure vendors.
Fundamentals: AI‑driven turnaround vs. execution risk
Underneath Thursday’s headlines, Intel is still in the middle of a massive multi‑year transformation.
Q3 2025 earnings: cost cuts and strategic capital
In October, Intel reported Q3 2025 results that beat expectations, with adjusted EPS of $0.23 versus consensus of $0.01 and adjusted gross margin at 40%, well above forecasts. [21]
Notable points:
- Massive cost cuts and layoffs (the workforce is set to end 2025 more than 20% smaller than a year ago) helped offset heavy capital spending. [22]
- Intel closed or lined up over $15 billion in strategic investments: a $5 billion stake from Nvidia, $2 billion from SoftBank, and an $8.9 billion non‑voting equity stake from the U.S. government, which will own around 10% of the company. [23]
- The company is guiding Q4 2025 revenue to a range of $12.8–13.8 billion, with non‑GAAP EPS around $0.08, implying a fragile but visible return to growth. [24]
Despite the rally, Intel’s margins and returns still lag its own history and key rivals like Nvidia and AMD — and its Intel Foundry Services unit remains loss‑making, even as it positions to become a second global manufacturing powerhouse. [25]
AI PCs, Gaudi 3 and the 18A roadmap
Intel’s 2025 product pipeline is heavily tilted toward AI:
- Core Ultra 200 series CPUs with integrated NPUs for “AI PCs,” with Intel targeting 100 million AI PC CPUs shipped by 2025.
- Gaudi 3 AI accelerators for enterprise and cloud inference workloads.
- Xeon 6 for data‑center workloads, and a roadmap pushing from Intel 7/4/3 to Intel 20A and 18A nodes as part of its “5 nodes in 4 years” strategy. [26]
However, Intel has admitted that 18A process yields are still below the level needed for “industry‑acceptable” margins and may not fully normalize until around 2027. [27]
On top of that, analysis from Parameter notes that Intel faces ongoing wafer constraints for key AI platforms, in part because it still relies on external foundries such as TSMC for some advanced capacity. [28]
In other words: demand for AI PCs and accelerators is strong, but Intel is not yet in full control of the supply side.
How the pros are reacting: mixed ratings and big dispersion
Street consensus: cautious but not catastrophic
Fresh data points show a cautious but not outright bearish analyst stance:
- A TipRanks digest cited by market commentary shows a “Hold” consensus on Intel based on 5 Buys, 24 Holds and 6 Sells in the last three months, with an average price target around $37 — slightly below the current share price, implying limited near‑term upside. [29]
- Separate coverage using MarketBeat data characterizes the consensus as “Reduce”, with a target nearer $34.84, again below Thursday’s close. [30]
That gap reflects differences in sample and methodology, but the message is similar: Wall Street already priced in a lot of good news, and today’s governance shock is landing on an extended chart.
Bull vs. bear narratives
Recent analysis pieces illustrate just how divided opinion is:
- A deep‑dive bullish report from PredictStreet argues that Intel’s IDM 2.0 strategy, massive government backing, aggressive AI roadmap and foundry pivot put it on a path to regain process leadership and structurally grow again, highlighting a roughly 99% 12‑month share price rebound as evidence of a “remarkable resurgence.” [31]
- A bearish note on Seeking Alpha, titled “Intel: Time to Buy Put Options,” contends that implied volatility underestimates governance, execution and macro risks, and suggests downside protection via options after the stock’s huge run. [32]
- Another Seeking Alpha article, “Intel’s Growth Inflection Is Real,” takes the opposite view, pointing to outperformance vs. peers in 2025 and arguing that cost cuts plus AI demand have finally turned the corner for the core business. [33]
On top of that, AI‑driven quantitative tools (such as Danelfin and StockInvest) have generally upgraded Intel from “Hold” to “Buy candidate” over the last two weeks, recognizing the strong uptrend even as short‑term risk remains high. [34]
Technical picture and forecast for Friday, December 12, 2025
From a pure price‑action standpoint, Intel is still in a strong but volatile uptrend:
- StockInvest’s technical model notes that Intel’s share price has risen in 6 of the last 10 sessions and is up over 7% in the past two weeks, despite Thursday’s drop. [35]
- The service recently upgraded INTC to a Buy candidate, projecting a 29% potential rise over the next three months with a probabilistic range between roughly $44 and $58 if the current trend holds. [36]
- At the same time, there is a short‑term sell signal from a pivot top earlier in December, and Thursday’s decline occurred on falling volume, which technicians often view as a sign that selling pressure might be losing steam rather than intensifying. [37]
For Friday, December 12, StockInvest’s trading expectations are:
- Predicted fair opening price:$39.59, slightly above Thursday’s close.
- Expected intraday range: roughly $38.50 to $40.52, implying potential ±5.2% intraday swings. [38]
Support from accumulated volume sits well below, near the $35.50–34.00 zone, while immediate resistance is close by around $39.50–41.50, meaning the risk/reward for very short‑term traders is tight unless the stock pulls back closer to those deeper support levels. [39]
Industry backdrop: AI boom, neutral credit outlook
The broader semiconductor backdrop helps frame Intel’s risk/reward going into Friday:
- Omdia estimates that global semiconductor revenue hit a record $216.3 billion in Q3 2025, up 14.5% sequentially, and is on track to exceed $800 billion for full‑year 2025, with growth finally broadening beyond Nvidia and memory to the rest of the market. [40]
- Fitch Ratings just reiterated a “neutral” credit outlook for North American chipmakers in 2026, noting that robust AI infrastructure spending should offset macro and trade headwinds and support overall revenue growth and stable credit metrics. [41]
Intel is part of that AI‑driven tide, but it’s gaining share more slowly than Nvidia or some memory players — so its stock is more sensitive to company‑specific headlines like Thursday’s governance shock.
What to watch before the December 12 market open
Going into Friday’s session, traders and longer‑term investors may want to keep an eye on the following:
- Any new company or board response to the Reuters conflict‑of‑interest story
- A stronger governance response — for example, clearer disclosure commitments, tighter recusal frameworks or independent board reviews — could help stabilize sentiment. A perceived “circle the wagons” stance may do the opposite. [42]
- Developments in the Russian missile lawsuits
- New filings, headlines or political commentary around export‑control compliance could influence ESG‑sensitive fund flows, even though the legal process will move slowly. [43]
- How the market digests the EU antitrust fine cut
- For now, investors seem to view the reduced €237 million penalty as a manageable, “known known”, which is mildly positive. Any talk of further appeals or new competition cases would be a negative surprise. [44]
- Pre‑market moves in the semiconductor sector as a whole
- Fitch’s neutral outlook and Omdia’s record revenue data support the sector, but day‑to‑day flows still follow macro headlines and AI sentiment. Watch peer moves in Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Marvell and memory names for read‑through. [45]
- Options activity and volatility pricing in INTC
- Bearish options research has argued that implied volatility remains too low compared with governance and legal risks. If put volumes spike Friday morning, that would confirm hedging demand is rising. [46]
- Execution updates on AI PCs, Gaudi 3 and 18A capacity
- Any incremental commentary from Intel or ecosystem partners around AI PC demand, Gaudi 3 deployments, wafer constraints or 18A yields could quickly overshadow today’s governance noise — for better or worse. [47]
Bottom line
Intel’s December 11 sell‑off is less about near‑term earnings and more about trust, governance and long‑running legal baggage colliding with a stock that has already doubled this year.
- On the positive side, Intel has fresh capital from Nvidia, SoftBank and the U.S. government, a more focused AI and PC roadmap, and signs that demand for its AI‑centric products is strong. [48]
- On the negative side, investors must now weigh conflict‑of‑interest concerns, export‑control lawsuits, an EU antitrust reminder and new security vulnerabilities, all at once — just as the company is asking markets to fund a historic foundry and process‑technology expansion. [49]
For Friday’s open, the crucial question is simple:
Is this governance‑driven pullback just another buy‑the‑dip opportunity in a powerful AI recovery story — or the start of a more serious re‑rating as investors demand a higher risk premium for Intel’s leadership and legal overhang?
Whichever side you land on, expect above‑average volatility in INTC around the December 12 open as the market re‑prices that risk.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.techzine.eu, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. parameter.io, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.scworld.com, 20. www.scworld.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.intc.com, 25. markets.financialcontent.com, 26. markets.financialcontent.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. parameter.io, 29. www.tipranks.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. markets.financialcontent.com, 32. seekingalpha.com, 33. seekingalpha.com, 34. danelfin.com, 35. stockinvest.us, 36. stockinvest.us, 37. stockinvest.us, 38. stockinvest.us, 39. stockinvest.us, 40. omdia.tech.informa.com, 41. www.tradingview.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.tipranks.com, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. www.tradingview.com, 46. seekingalpha.com, 47. markets.financialcontent.com, 48. www.reuters.com, 49. www.reuters.com
