New York, Jan 21, 2026, 17:15 EST — After-hours trading underway.
Intel shares jumped 11.7% to $54.25 on Wednesday, refocusing the AI-chip sector on one stock and one big question: is this rally real, or just wishful thinking?
Intel’s quarterly earnings report drops Thursday, with investors keen to see if the AI-driven boom in data-center expansions is boosting demand for its server CPUs—those critical processors paired with GPUs in many AI systems. LSEG data compiled by Reuters shows Intel’s data-center revenue could surge over 30%, hitting $4.43 billion. This comes on the heels of a $5 billion cash injection from Nvidia, $2 billion from SoftBank, plus a stake from the U.S. government. Ryuta Makino, an analyst at Intel investor Gabelli Funds, described the current mood as “the most optimistic” in a long time. 1
The earnings report comes as Washington intensifies its clampdown on advanced AI chip exports to China, unsettling the sector’s leading player. The U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced the “AI Overwatch Act,” a bill granting Congress 30 days to review and potentially block export licenses. The latest version specifically targets Nvidia’s top-tier Blackwell chips with a ban. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned at Davos: “It would be a big mistake to ship these chips.” 2
AI chip stocks delivered a split performance. Nvidia edged up about 3.0% to $183.32. AMD surged 7.6%, closing at $249.80, and Arm climbed 6.3% to $113.92. The iShares Semiconductor ETF rose roughly 3.2%.
China remains a major unknown for Nvidia despite recent moves in Washington. CEO Jensen Huang plans to visit China in late January, Reuters reports, after the Trump administration approved sales of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to the country. Yet, Chinese customs later blocked those chips from entering, raising questions about Nvidia’s market access. 3
Wall Street benchmarks rebounded Wednesday, as the S&P 500 rose 1.16% and the Nasdaq gained 1.18%. The market cheered a Greenland deal framework, easing worries around tariffs. 4
But the picture isn’t one-sided. Options pricing suggests traders expect Intel shares to swing about 8% by the end of the week. Some analysts warn recent news has pushed the stock beyond what the core business fundamentals support, with ongoing competition and potential softness in PC demand still a threat as memory prices rise. (Options are contracts letting traders hedge or bet on price moves; implied moves show what those contracts are factoring in.) 5
Intel plans to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings Thursday after the market closes, with a follow-up call scheduled for 2 p.m. PT. Investors will be looking closely for insights on data-center demand, advances in Intel’s newest manufacturing efforts, and management’s views on export controls and pricing challenges ahead of the next quarter. 6
