Intel Stock Soars on Apple Foundry Rumors and 18A Breakthrough: Is INTC’s 2025 Rally Built to Last?

Intel’s stock has exploded higher into the end of 2025, capping a year that saw a government rescue, a brutal restructuring, and now a wave of optimism around its cutting‑edge “18A” manufacturing node and potential mega‑customers like Apple and Microsoft.

As of 1 December 2025, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) trades around $40.56, near its 52‑week high of $42.48 and up roughly 70% over the past year, after a double‑digit surge on Black Friday tied to reports that Intel could start manufacturing Apple’s entry‑level M‑series chips as early as 2027. ^[1]

At the same time, analysts remain cautious, long‑term forecasts are all over the map, and a fresh trade‑secret lawsuit involving a former TSMC executive now at Intel has added a new layer of legal risk. ^[2]

Here’s a detailed look at what’s driving Intel’s stock right now, what Wall Street expects next, and the key risks investors should be watching.

Intel stock today: price, performance and valuation

Multiple data providers show Intel shares hovering just below recent highs:

Share price (Dec 1, 2025): about $40.56. ^[3]
52‑week range: roughly $17.67 – $42.48, meaning the stock has more than doubled from its lows. ^[4]
Today’s intraday range: about $37.34 – $40.59, indicating heavy volatility around the Apple‑rumor spike. ^[5]
Average daily volume: close to 96 million shares over the past year, underscoring intense trading interest. ^[6]

Intel’s Black Friday move was particularly dramatic. In a shortened post‑Thanksgiving session, Intel jumped about 10% to ~$40.67, making it the best‑performing stock in the S&P 500 that day, according to Investopedia and MarketBeat. ^[7]

MarketBeat’s breakout analysis notes that:

Intel’s close around $40.67 set a new 52‑week high.
The rally came on heavy volume, suggesting institutional buying rather than just retail speculation.
Even after the move, Intel trades at only about 1.5× its book value, with book value per share near $26.67, implying the market is paying only a modest premium to the value of Intel’s tangible assets. ^[8]

The headline valuation metric, however, is quirky: because earnings have only just turned positive after huge losses, some services show a sky‑high trailing P/E (thousands of times earnings) – a reminder that Intel’s profit base is still fragile despite the rising share price. ^[9]

Apple partnership rumors: the catalyst behind the latest spike

The main driver of Intel’s late‑November surge is a flurry of reports that Apple may tap Intel’s 18A/18AP process to manufacture its lowest‑end M‑series chips later this decade.

What we know so far

A chain of reports from analyst Ming‑Chi Kuo and multiple outlets sketch out a similar story:

Apple has signed an NDA with Intel and taken an early 18AP process design kit (PDK) to begin internal simulation work on a low‑end M‑class SoC. ^[10]
Kuo expects Intel could begin shipping Apple’s lowest‑end M processor in 2027, targeting devices like the MacBook Air and iPad Pro, with annual volumes in the 15–20 million unit range. ^[11]
CoinCentral reports that Intel stock jumped about 10% on Friday and held most of those gains in Monday pre‑market trading as investors digested the Apple headlines. ^[12]
TipRanks notes that such a deal would be a “significant step forward” for Intel’s foundry business, signaling real progress after years of skepticism. ^[13]

Tom’s Hardware adds key technical context: Apple has received 18AP PDK version 0.9.1, with full 1.0 and 1.1 releases scheduled for early 2026. If Intel hits those milestones and demonstrates acceptable yields, volume production for Apple could start in Q2–Q3 2027. ^[14]

Why this matters so much for Intel

This isn’t just another design win rumor:

It would be Apple’s first manufacturing deal with Intel since the company dropped Intel CPUs for in‑house silicon in 2023. ^[15]
It would validate Intel’s 18A node as a credible alternative to TSMC for advanced chips, at least at the lower‑end of Apple’s product stack. ^[16]
It aligns with Washington’s push to shift advanced chipmaking back onshore, since Apple could use U.S.‑based Intel fabs to diversify away from Taiwan. ^[17]

Investopedia summarised the market reaction neatly: Intel was the top S&P 500 gainer on Nov. 28, as investors priced in the possibility of adding a new “Big Tech” customer. ^[18]

Crucially, Apple has not confirmed any manufacturing deal, and all timelines remain contingent on Intel delivering a fully validated 18A/18AP process and meeting Apple’s stringent yield and performance requirements. The news is real, but it’s still pre‑contract.

18A, AI chips and the fight for process leadership

The Apple rumor sits on top of a broader story: Intel’s 18A process is finally entering high‑volume production, and the company is aggressively positioning itself as an advanced foundry rival to TSMC and Samsung.

18A hits volume production

According to Tom’s Hardware and related industry coverage:

Intel has begun volume production of its 18A node, initially for its Panther Lake client CPUs, which are expected to reach the market in late 2025 and ramp through 2026. ^[19]
18A combines RibbonFET gate‑all‑around transistors with PowerVia backside power delivery, a first in high‑volume manufacturing, giving Intel a potential performance‑per‑watt edge over its own Intel 3 process and competitive parity (or better) versus TSMC’s upcoming N2 node. ^[20]

On the foundry customer side:

Reports indicate that Microsoft has chosen Intel’s 18A/18A‑P process for its next‑gen Maia 2 AI accelerators, deepening an earlier partnership around custom data‑center silicon. ^[21]
Reuters previously reported that Nvidia and Broadcom are testing chips on 18A, while AMD evaluates the node — early‑stage engagements that could turn into larger contracts if yields and economics prove compelling. ^[22]

If Apple, Microsoft, and potentially Nvidia/Broadcom all end up as 18A customers, Intel’s foundry narrative shifts from “long‑shot turnaround” to credible, multi‑customer advanced foundry platform.

AI hardware: Gaudi and new GPUs

Intel also needs to prove it can compete in the AI accelerator race, where Nvidia currently dominates:

At Computex 2025, Intel announced broader availability of its Gaudi 3 AI accelerators, both in rack‑scale systems and PCIe cards, targeting large language models and other high‑end AI workloads. ^[23]
Industry coverage suggests Gaudi has struggled to gain meaningful market share against Nvidia’s H‑series GPUs, but Intel is pushing hybrid solutions and ecosystem partnerships to get its hardware into more data centers. ^[24]

For now, the stock’s 2025 surge is being driven far more by the manufacturing story (18A + Apple + Microsoft) than by any clear AI market share gains. But the AI product line is important because it underpins the thesis that Intel can be more than just a turnaround PC and server CPU vendor.

Fundamentals: from massive losses to a tentative profit

Behind the headlines, Intel’s financials show a company emerging from a deep hole but still far from cruising altitude.

Q2 2025: painful reset

In Q2 2025, Intel reported:

Revenue of $12.86 billion, roughly flat year‑over‑year but above expectations.
A growing foundry business with revenue around $4.4 billion, beating forecasts.
An adjusted net loss of $441 million (–$0.10 per share), versus a small profit a year earlier. ^[25]

At the same time, new CEO Lip‑Bu Tan launched a sweeping restructuring:

A planned 15% workforce reduction, cutting headcount to around 75,000 by the end of 2025, down from almost 109,000 at the end of 2024. ^[26]
Halting or slowing factory projects in Germany, Poland and Ohio to focus spending only where customer demand is clear. ^[27]
A harder line on capital allocation — Tan told employees there would be “no more blank checks” and that every new fab investment must meet strict economic hurdles. ^[28]

This reset hurt margins and earnings in the short term, but it laid the groundwork for a more disciplined foundry strategy.

Q3 2025: first major profit in years

The story improved dramatically in Q3 2025:

Intel reported revenue of $13.7 billion, up about 3% year‑over‑year and above guidance. ^[29]
AP News notes that Intel swung from a $17 billion loss a year ago to net income of $4.1 billion, or $0.90 per share, as cost cuts and government support kicked in. ^[30]
Gross margins improved significantly, and the PC (Client Computing) segment delivered strong profits as the PC market stabilized and early “AI PC” demand emerged. ^[31]

Intel’s own guidance calls for Q4 2025 revenue of $12.8–$13.8 billion and non‑GAAP EPS around $0.08, reflecting a still‑bumpy road but continued progress toward sustainable profitability. ^[32]

Government and strategic investors step in

One unique aspect of Intel’s story is the scale of external support:

The U.S. government now owns about 10% of Intel, after converting nearly $9 billion in CHIPS and Science Act funding into equity as a national‑security investment in domestic chipmaking. ^[33]
Intel has also secured around $5 billion from Nvidia and $2 billion from SoftBank as part of broader strategic funding arrangements tied to its manufacturing roadmap. ^[34]

Those injections shore up Intel’s balance sheet but come with implicit expectations: Intel is now a quasi‑strategic utility for U.S. chip manufacturing, not just another tech stock.

Who’s buying? Institutional flows and ownership

Fresh 13F‑based analyses published on 1 December 2025 show that major institutions increased their Intel stakes during Q2 2025, even before the latest Apple headlines:

Capital Counsel LLC NY boosted its Intel holdings by 7.5% to about 642,000 shares, worth roughly $14.4 million. ^[35]
Mackenzie Financial Corp ramped its position by 55.7% to just over 2.06 million shares, valued around $46.2 million. ^[36]
Other large investors, including Schroder Investment Management, Price T. Rowe Associates, Goldman Sachs and Norges Bank, also significantly increased or initiated positions. ^[37]

MarketBeat’s tally suggests that roughly 64–65% of Intel’s float is now held by institutions and hedge funds, indicating strong professional interest in the turnaround thesis. ^[38]

Analyst forecasts: price targets lag the share price

Despite the stock’s big move, Wall Street is far from unanimous on Intel.

Consensus ratings and price targets

Different aggregators paint a similar picture:

MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: “Reduce” based on 34 analysts (8 Sell, 24 Hold, 2 Buy).
- Average 12‑month price target: $34.84, implying about 14% downside from roughly $40.7. ^[39]
StockAnalysis.com:
- Consensus rating: “Hold” across 25 analysts.
- Average target: $31.98, implying roughly 21% downside from current levels.
- Target range: $20 (low) to $52 (high). ^[40]
TipRanks:
- Consensus rating: Hold from 34 analysts (3 Buy, 25 Hold, 6 Sell).
- Average target: about $36.07, suggesting ~11% downside from current prices. ^[41]

Bottom line: analysts, on average, think Intel’s share price has run ahead of fundamentals, even as many have been raising their targets.

Notable bullish and cautious voices

Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth raised his Intel price target from $45 to $52 on 4 November 2025 and rates the stock a Buy/Strong Buy, arguing that operational progress and foundry optionality justify a premium. ^[42]
Other big firms — including Barclays, Wells Fargo, TD Cowen and UBS — have raised their targets into the $35–$45 range but mostly maintained Hold/Neutral ratings. ^[43]
Capital.com’s August survey of major brokers (Bernstein, UBS, JPMorgan, Needham, Benchmark, Morningstar) showed a cluster of neutral or underweight views with fair values in the low‑20s, underscoring how sharply market expectations have reset since mid‑year. ^[44]

There are also algorithmic and long‑horizon models that are outright pessimistic, projecting major declines for Intel over the next decade based on historical patterns rather than today’s strategic shifts — a reminder of how divided long‑term forecasts remain. ^[45]

Legal overhang: TSMC’s trade‑secret lawsuit

Adding to the complexity is a fast‑moving legal dispute between TSMC and a former senior executive who recently joined Intel.

The core allegation

TSMC has filed a lawsuit in Taiwan against former senior vice president Wei‑Jen (Lo Wen‑jen) Lo, who left TSMC in mid‑2025 and later joined Intel as an Executive Vice President. ^[46]
TSMC alleges there is a “high risk” that Lo could share confidential process technology with Intel in violation of non‑compete and non‑disclosure agreements, and Taiwan’s Trade Secrets Act. ^[47]
Taiwanese prosecutors have raided Lo’s residences and seized digital devices as part of an ongoing investigation, though no criminal charges have been filed to date. ^[48]

Intel’s response

Intel has strongly denied that any TSMC trade secrets were taken or misused, emphasizing strict internal policies against the mishandling of third‑party IP. ^[49]
CEO Lip‑Bu Tan circulated an internal memo backing Lo and highlighting Intel’s “strict ethics policy” and zero‑tolerance stance on IP violations, according to Tom’s Hardware and other outlets. ^[50]

Regulators in Taiwan have stressed that only judicial authorities can determine the merits of the allegations, and the case remains in early stages. ^[51]

For investors, the key takeaway is not that Intel is guilty — that’s unproven — but that headline and legal risk around IP disputes is now part of the Intel story, especially as it tries to lure customers away from TSMC in the high‑stakes foundry market.

Bull vs. bear: how to frame Intel after the 2025 rally

The bull case

Supporters argue that Intel is finally executing on a long‑promised turnaround:

Real financial progress
- Revenue is growing again, margins have improved, and Q3 delivered the first major profit in years. ^[52]
18A and foundry validation
- 18A is in volume production and already tied to marquee customers like Microsoft, with Apple evaluating the node for a mainstream product. ^[53]
Government and strategic backing
- Massive CHIPS Act funding and investments from Nvidia and SoftBank provide both capital and political tailwinds. ^[54]
Attractive asset valuation
- Even after doubling, Intel trades at only about 1.5× book value, versus double‑digit P/B multiples for peers like Nvidia and AMD, meaning investors are paying mostly for tangible fabs and IP, not story‑stock hype. ^[55]
Rally still early if execution continues
- MarketBeat estimates a roughly 103% year‑to‑date gain, but notes Intel is still valued more like a “distressed asset than a growth company”, leaving room for upside if the foundry and AI stories deliver. ^[56]

The bear case

Skeptics counter that Intel’s challenges are deep and structural:

Market share and product gaps
- Intel still trails Nvidia in AI accelerators and continues to face stiff competition from AMD in CPUs and TSMC in manufacturing density. ^[57]
Foundry economics uncertain
- Reuters notes that Tan is re‑evaluating the economics of advanced nodes like 18A and 14A, even warning that Intel may have to exit parts of the foundry business if it can’t secure enough external customers. ^[58]
Heavy reliance on subsidies and political will
- The U.S. government’s 10% stake underscores a strategic mandate, but also raises questions about political risk, governance and long‑term return on capital if policy priorities change. ^[59]
Valuation vs. earnings
- Consensus price targets are mostly below the current share price, implying that the market is already discounting a substantial turnaround that hasn’t fully shown up in earnings yet. ^[60]
Legal and execution risk
- The TSMC trade‑secret case, while unproven, creates reputational risk just as Intel is courting the world’s most sensitive chipmakers. ^[61]
- 18A timelines and yields must stay on track for both internal products and external deals; any delay could push out revenue and dent confidence. ^[62]

What to watch next

For anyone following Intel stock into 2026, several milestones will be critical:

Q4 2025 earnings (early 2026)
- Can Intel hit its guidance of $12.8–$13.8 billion in revenue and positive non‑GAAP EPS?
- How quickly do margins improve as restructuring benefits flow through? ^[63]
Formal announcements (or not) from Apple and Microsoft
- Confirmation of a binding foundry contract with Apple would be a transformational signal.
- Additional clarity on Microsoft’s Maia 2 order and any follow‑on AI designs will help quantify 18A revenue. ^[64]
18A and 14A progress updates
- Investors will scrutinize every update on yield, capacity and customer ramps for the new nodes, especially as TSMC and Samsung push their own 2nm‑class processes. ^[65]
Resolution of the TSMC trade‑secret case
- Any court rulings, settlements, or formal charges (or lack thereof) involving Wei‑Jen Lo could move sentiment around Intel’s ethics and its relationship with Asian regulators. ^[66]
AI product traction
- Adoption of Gaudi 3 and upcoming Intel data‑center GPUs will determine whether Intel can become a meaningful player in AI compute rather than just a manufacturing subcontractor. ^[67]

Takeaway: a rerated Intel with a lot left to prove

Intel’s 2025 story marks a dramatic turn from just a year ago:

The company has stopped the bleeding, returned to profitability, and secured historic backing from the U.S. government and major partners. ^[68]
Its 18A process is in volume production, and at least two potential anchor customers — Microsoft and Apple — are now seriously in the mix. ^[69]
The stock has more than doubled from its lows, and institutions are clearly leaning into the turnaround. ^[70]

At the same time, Wall Street is still cautious, consensus targets sit below the current price, and both competitive and legal risks remain substantial.

For investors, Intel is no longer a simple value trap or a simple growth story — it’s a high‑beta, execution‑dependent bet on whether a once‑dominant chipmaker can reinvent itself as a national‑security‑backed AI and foundry powerhouse.

Important: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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