New York time check: It is Friday, December 26, 2025, and the current time in New York is about 2:23 p.m. ET.
Intel shares are trading in the middle of an unusual year-end backdrop: post‑Christmas, thinner liquidity, and U.S. indexes hovering near record territory as investors rotate back toward AI-linked themes. [1]
As of the latest available trade in this session, Intel (INTC) is around $36.21, up about 0.19% on the day.
That small move hides a bigger reality: Intel’s story into 2026 is less about “PC demand is up/down this quarter” and more about whether the company can convert political support and partner capital into foundry credibility—especially after a fresh headline that Nvidia tested Intel’s 18A process but stopped moving forward, according to Reuters sources. [2]
What’s happening in the market right now—and why it matters for Intel stock
Today’s U.S. session has the classic “holiday week” feel: lighter volume, fewer catalysts, and price action that can swing on headlines. Reuters described indexes hovering near all‑time highs in thin post‑Christmas trading, supported by resilient economic signals and renewed appetite for AI-related names. [3]
Using the most widely followed ETFs as real-time proxies:
- S&P 500 proxy (SPY) is essentially flat on the day around the time of Intel’s latest trade.
- Nasdaq-100 proxy (QQQ) is modestly higher.
- Semiconductor ETF proxy (SOXX) is also slightly higher—helpful context because INTC trades as both a mega-cap industrial policy story and a semiconductor relative-value debate.
Why this matters: in a market where “AI infrastructure” has been the gravitational center, Intel’s stock tends to react sharply to anything that changes the probability of Intel becoming a meaningful foundry alternative (even partially) to TSMC/Samsung—because that’s the lever that could reshape its margins, capital intensity, and narrative.
The headline investors are actually chewing on: Nvidia and Intel 18A
The most market-moving Intel storyline this week isn’t a product launch—it’s validation (or non-validation) of Intel Foundry.
Reuters reported that Nvidia recently tested Intel’s 18A manufacturing process but stopped moving forward, citing people familiar with the matter. Intel shares dipped after that report hit, and Reuters noted Nvidia had made no commitment to manufacture with Intel when it invested. [4]
That “test but pause” detail matters because:
- 18A is Intel’s near-term proof node for leading-edge credibility in the U.S. (the story Intel wants to tell with Panther Lake and future server parts). [5]
- If a top-tier design house doesn’t proceed, the bear case gets louder: Intel can still manufacture its own chips, but may struggle to win the kind of external volume that makes foundry economics work. [6]
This doesn’t automatically mean “Intel foundry is doomed.” Foundry qualification is messy, slow, and sometimes brutally pragmatic. But it does raise the bar for what Intel needs to show next: not just roadmaps, but repeatable yields, predictable timelines, and customer commitments that scale.
Intel’s counterweight: Panther Lake, 18A ramp, and “show-me” execution
Intel’s bull narrative into early 2026 leans heavily on Panther Lake, its next client PC platform built on Intel 18A.
Intel says Panther Lake will:
- ramp high-volume production during 2025,
- have the first SKU ship before year-end, and
- reach broad market availability starting January 2026. [7]
Reuters has also reported on Panther Lake timing and has highlighted the central investor obsession here: yields. Reuters previously reported Panther Lake yields were low earlier in the year and improved over time; Intel executives reportedly did not discuss current yields at one point, and Reuters cited earlier yield estimates in that reporting. [8]
The key point for investors: Panther Lake is both a product cycle and a manufacturing referendum. If Intel executes cleanly, the market gets evidence that 18A is real in production, not just real on slides.
The “industrial policy” trade: U.S. stake, Nvidia money, and why governance risk is now part of the thesis
Intel isn’t navigating 2026 with a normal capital structure storyline. It’s navigating it with a very modern, very weird hybrid: policy capital + strategic capital + turnaround execution.
The U.S. government stake (and what it actually means)
Reuters reported that the U.S. agreed to purchase about a 9.9% stake in Intel tied to converting CHIPS-related funding into equity, at a price reported around $20.47 per share, alongside a warrant structure tied to Intel maintaining control of its foundry business. [9]
Intel has emphasized the government position is passive, with no board representation, and that the warrant is exercisable only under specific conditions related to foundry control. [10]
From an investor lens, this is a double-edged sword:
- Supportive: it strengthens liquidity and signals strategic importance.
- Risky: it introduces a new category of “policy/governance headline risk” that can whipsaw sentiment. Reuters explicitly noted investor concern about extraordinary interventions in corporate America, and quoted Synovus Trust’s Daniel Morgan arguing Intel still needs to catch up technologically to attract foundry business. [11]
Nvidia’s investment—cleared, but not the same as a foundry commitment
Reuters reported U.S. antitrust agencies cleared Nvidia’s investment in Intel, according to an FTC notice. [12]
But it’s important to separate two ideas that are often mashed together online:
- Equity/partnership headlines (good for liquidity and ecosystem signaling), versus
- Foundry wafer commitments (the hard revenue that determines whether foundry works).
Even Reuters’ profile of Intel’s CEO underscores that Nvidia’s relationship with Intel includes collaboration and investment—but still noted Nvidia made no manufacturing commitment and later paused 18A forward motion. [13]
Intel’s latest official financial picture: Q3 results, Q4 guidance, and what management is signaling
Intel’s most recent full quarterly update (Q3 2025) provides the baseline for how Wall Street models the next step of the turnaround.
Intel reported:
- Q3 2025 revenue of $13.7B (+3% YoY)
- Non‑GAAP EPS of $0.23
- Q4 2025 revenue guidance of $12.8B to $13.8B
- Q4 2025 non‑GAAP EPS guidance of $0.08 [14]
CEO Lip‑Bu Tan framed the strategy around AI-driven demand across Intel’s portfolio, including x86 platforms, “purpose-built ASICs and accelerators,” and foundry services. [15]
CFO David Zinsner highlighted balance-sheet strengthening (including U.S. government funding and investments by Nvidia and SoftBank) and added a notable demand signal: “Current demand is outpacing supply,” a trend Intel expected to persist into 2026. [16]
Investors should read that CFO line carefully. It can be interpreted two ways:
- Bullish interpretation: Intel is seeing healthy demand and tighter execution.
- Cautious interpretation: constraints (including manufacturing capacity mix, ramp timing, and product transitions) may still be limiting near-term upside even if demand is present.
The foundry “boss level”: 14A as the make-or-break customer test
One of the most sobering Intel foundry statements of 2025 came via Reuters reporting: Intel warned investors it may have to exit chip manufacturing if it fails to land significant external customers for its next-gen process (notably 14A). [17]
Put simply:
- 18A is the near-term proof point.
- 14A is the business model test: can Intel win a truly meaningful external customer (or customers) that justifies the capital cycle?
A useful industry voice here came from Synopsys CEO Sassine Ghazi, who told Reuters Intel’s 18A was performing somewhere between TSMC’s most advanced process and its predecessor, and described customers waiting to see whether they should commit. [18]
That’s the landscape Intel is trading in: the market is not grading “effort.” It’s grading “external validation.”
Wall Street forecasts: cautious consensus, wide dispersion
Analyst views on Intel remain mixed—partly because Intel is effectively two businesses in one stock (product company + capital-intensive foundry bet).
Here’s what major tracking sources show right now:
- MarketWatch shows an average recommendation of Hold and an average target price around $38.48 (with dozens of analyst ratings). [19]
- TipRanks shows a Hold consensus, with an average target around $38.09, and a wide range from $20 to $52 among analysts it tracks. [20]
- MarketBeat (using a different analyst set/methodology) shows an average target around $34.84, updated recently, implying modest downside from the current price area. [21]
So what’s the real takeaway? Not “the target is $38” (targets are famously squishy). The takeaway is: dispersion is still huge, which usually means the stock remains headline- and execution-sensitive.
That fits the narrative Reuters reported as well: Intel shares have surged sharply since Tan’s appointment, but the debate about technical execution and conflicts/governance concerns hasn’t disappeared. [22]
Is the stock exchange open right now? Yes—and here’s what to know into the close and next session
The U.S. stock market is open today (Dec. 26) with normal trading hours, following the Christmas Day closure and the early close on Christmas Eve. Official exchange calendars confirm the standard schedule and holiday exceptions. [23]
Because it’s Friday afternoon, the next regular session is Monday, December 29, 2025.
What Intel investors should watch before Monday’s open
Year-end markets have their own physics—thin liquidity and headline-driven moves. Into the next session, Intel investors should keep an eye on:
- Any follow-through reporting on Nvidia/18A
- The market will treat any clarification (from Intel, Nvidia, suppliers, or credible reporting) as a probability update on foundry traction. [24]
- Signals on foundry customer pipeline (18A near-term, 14A longer-term)
- Reuters reporting has made clear that external customers are central to the foundry thesis—and that Intel itself has framed the stakes bluntly. [25]
- Macro calendar: a light week, but not “nothing”
- MarketWatch’s economic calendar flags Pending Home Sales (Nov.) at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday among the next notable U.S. data points. In thin trading weeks, even “second-tier” data can move rates and risk sentiment. [26]
- Next major Intel catalyst: earnings timing
- Yahoo’s earnings calendar lists Intel’s next report around January 29, 2026 (4:00 p.m. ET) (as scheduled/expected at time of publication). [27]
- Treat the exact timing as subject to company confirmation—but it’s close enough that positioning often starts earlier than people expect.
Bottom line for INTC right now
Intel stock is trading in a market that’s flirting with record highs and re-centering on AI narratives—helpful wind at the sector’s back. [28]
But Intel’s specific rerating case still comes down to a few hard, testable questions:
- Can Intel scale 18A beyond internal products and into credible foundry relationships? [29]
- Can it land (and keep) the kind of external commitments that make 14A economically defensible? [30]
- Can it do all of that while navigating the new reality of industrial-policy involvement—a liquidity support that also introduces political and governance risk? [31]
That’s why the stock can be up a fraction of a percent on a calm holiday session… and still feel like it’s sitting on top of a spring-loaded trapdoor into 2026.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. newsroom.intel.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. newsroom.intel.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.intc.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.intc.com, 15. www.intc.com, 16. www.intc.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.nyse.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. finance.yahoo.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. newsroom.intel.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com
