Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) enters the Dec. 22, 2025 market open with a familiar investment debate back in focus: can the company’s “platform” strategy—spanning TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp—keep delivering durable double‑digit growth while it layers on new AI and payments capabilities?
That debate intensified in recent weeks as Intuit announced a major OpenAI partnership and then followed with a new stablecoin infrastructure partnership with Circle (USDC)—all while the company heads into the early stages of the next tax season. [1]
Below is what investors and traders should know heading into Monday’s open (Dec. 22), including the most relevant headlines, the latest company guidance, Wall Street forecast ranges, and the near‑term calendar that could move INTU.
INTU stock price snapshot heading into the Dec. 22 open
Intuit shares last closed at $671.30 on Friday, Dec. 19, 2025, after trading between $665.44 (low) and $675.60 (high) during the session. [2]
A key level many investors keep referencing is the 52‑week high of $813.70 (hit on July 30). On a $671 handle, INTU remains roughly 17%–18% below that peak—a reminder that even high‑quality software franchises can see valuation resets when guidance or growth expectations wobble. [3]
One more practical note for traders: this is a holiday‑shortened week. U.S. markets are scheduled to close early (1:00 p.m. ET) on Wednesday, Dec. 24, and remain closed Thursday, Dec. 25. Liquidity can thin out, and price moves can look “louder” than usual. [4]
The headlines moving Intuit right now
1) Intuit + Circle: USDC stablecoin rails come to TurboTax, QuickBooks, and Credit Karma
On Dec. 18, Intuit announced a multi‑year strategic partnership with Circle to establish a framework for using Circle’s stablecoin infrastructure and USDC across the Intuit platform. Intuit positions stablecoins as a “programmable, 24/7, low‑friction money rail,” highlighting potential use cases such as refunds, remittances, savings, and payments. [5]
Why it matters for INTU stock:
- It signals Intuit wants to become more than “software + tax”—it wants deeper participation in money movement, where payments rails and settlement speed can unlock new product experiences.
- It also introduces a new execution layer: stablecoin infrastructure is still evolving, with policy, compliance, and consumer trust all playing outsized roles.
Market reaction commentary varied across outlets, but the core fact pattern is straightforward: Intuit is explicitly attaching its product roadmap to a next‑gen settlement rail (USDC) at scale. [6]
2) TurboTax + Credit Karma push into tax season: “Now This Is Taxes”
Also on Dec. 18, Intuit announced a new integrated marketing push tied to TurboTax and Credit Karma—positioning the company’s consumer platform around expert‑assisted filing and maximized refunds messaging ahead of the upcoming filing season. [7]
Why it matters:
- Investors often view Intuit through the lens of tax-season execution. Even if the stock trades on AI narratives in the short term, the underlying unit economics still depend heavily on consumer conversion, attach, and service mix.
3) The OpenAI partnership: “more than $100 million,” and deeply tied to product UX
In mid‑November, Reuters reported Intuit signed a multi‑year deal worth more than $100 million with OpenAI to integrate advanced AI models into its products and power AI agents across apps like TurboTax. [8]
The Financial Times added important context: customers must opt in, and Intuit emphasized that it retains control over what data is shared—an important point given how sensitive tax and personal finance data is. [9]
Why it matters:
- Investors are rewarding “AI that monetizes,” not just AI demos. Intuit’s pitch is that AI agents can reduce friction, improve outcomes, and create pricing power across its ecosystem.
- But it also increases scrutiny around privacy, governance, and whether AI features drive measurable retention, ARPU, and margin improvement.
Earnings reality check: what Intuit guided, and what Wall Street is watching
Intuit’s last major financial update was its fiscal Q1 2026 report (quarter ended Oct. 31, 2025). In its Q1 release, Intuit highlighted:
- QuickBooks Online Accounting revenue +25% in the quarter
- Credit Karma revenue +27%
- TurboTax revenue +6% (early seasonality dynamics apply)
- A $1.20 quarterly dividend, payable Jan. 16, 2026, described as a 15% year‑over‑year increase per share
- $851 million of stock repurchased in the quarter, with $4.4 billion remaining under authorization [10]
Q2 (fiscal) guidance: strong revenue growth, softer EPS range
For fiscal Q2 2026 (ending Jan. 31, 2026), Intuit guided:
- Revenue growth: ~14%–15%
- GAAP EPS:$1.76–$1.81
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$3.63–$3.68 [11]
Reuters summarized the setup this way: Q2 revenue growth guidance was above consensus, but the adjusted EPS range was below what analysts had been expecting at the time. [12]
Full‑year FY2026 guidance: still double‑digit
At Investor Day (and reiterated later), Intuit guided for FY2026:
- Revenue:$20.997B–$21.186B (about 12%–13% growth)
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$22.98–$23.18
- Segment growth guideposts: Global Business Solutions +14%–15% (excluding Mailchimp +15.5%–16.5%), and Consumer +8%–9% (including TurboTax +8% and Credit Karma +10%–13%) [13]
What this means heading into Monday’s open:
- The market will likely keep trading INTU on whether it can sustain those segment growth ranges while expanding margins—especially as it invests in AI and new payments infrastructure.
Regulatory and policy backdrop: IRS Direct File is out for 2026 filing season
A material headline for the consumer tax software category: the IRS Direct File program will not be available for the 2026 filing season, per reporting from the Associated Press. [14]
For Intuit, the impact is not automatically “bullish” or “bearish,” but it does change competitive framing:
- With Direct File absent, the competitive focus shifts back toward private-sector solutions (TurboTax and peers) and the differentiated value proposition becomes service, guidance, and integration with broader financial lives (which is exactly what Intuit is emphasizing with Credit Karma and AI agents).
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what the Street expects for INTU
Consensus snapshots vary by provider, but the broad takeaway is that analyst sentiment remains constructive.
- Yahoo Finance shows a 1‑year target estimate around $803.89 (at the time of the snapshot). [15]
- TipRanks lists an average price target around $829.80, with a high of $880 and low of $725 based on analysts in the last three months. [16]
- Zacks lists an average price target around $829.63 (as presented on its price target/forecast page). [17]
- MarketBeat’s consensus page (from earlier results) has also shown a “Moderate Buy/Strong Buy” style consensus with average targets in the high‑$700s range. [18]
Recent analyst commentary highlights to know
If you’re scanning “what changed recently,” one frequently cited example is Goldman Sachs’ Kash Rangan reaffirming a Buy with an $860 target (per a Yahoo‑distributed recap). [19]
Separately, MarketBeat’s roundup posts (compiled from multiple firm notes) referenced targets such as $850 (RBC) and $800 (Daiwa) among others—useful as a map of where targets cluster, though investors should always prioritize the original research when possible. [20]
Bottom line: Targets still imply upside from the high‑$600s, but those targets also assume Intuit continues to execute on AI monetization, payments expansion, and Mailchimp stabilization—without margin surprises.
Insider and governance signals investors may notice
Insider transactions aren’t a trading system by themselves, but they do show up in headline feeds:
- A director sale of 333 shares (reported as under a Rule 10b5‑1 plan) was covered in Form 4‑based reporting. [21]
- Reuters/Refinitiv‑style summaries also highlighted a Form 4 related to CEO Sasan Goodarzi involving an exercise/surrender sequence (often tied to equity compensation mechanics). [22]
On the governance side, Intuit announced board changes, including Goodarzi becoming CEO and Board Chair at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on Jan. 22, 2026, along with other board transitions. [23]
The near-term calendar: the next catalysts for INTU
Here are the dates that matter most for “what could move the stock next”:
- Holiday trading week mechanics: early close Dec. 24 (1:00 p.m. ET), closed Dec. 25, normal hours Dec. 26. [24]
- Dividend timing: Intuit’s Q1 release referenced a $1.20 quarterly dividend payable Jan. 16, 2026, and market data sources show an ex‑dividend date around Jan. 9, 2026. [25]
- Annual meeting / chair transition:Jan. 22, 2026. [26]
- Next earnings: calendars differ, but commonly cited windows cluster in mid‑ to late‑February 2026—MarketBeat estimates Feb. 24, 2026, while Zacks also points to Feb. 24, 2026 as the expected next release date on its calendar page. Always treat these as subject to confirmation until Intuit formally announces. [27]
What to watch before the opening bell on Dec. 22
If you’re preparing a pre‑market plan for Intuit stock (INTU), these are the practical items that can matter most in the first 30–60 minutes of trading:
- Follow‑through (or fade) after the Circle/USDC announcement
The market may need more time to price whether stablecoin rails are “incremental upside” or “new execution risk.” [28] - Any incremental AI headlines tied to OpenAI integration
Investors will want concrete signals: feature rollouts, adoption metrics, and monetization—especially given the reported $100M+ commitment. [29] - Tax-season tone
The “Now This Is Taxes” push is a reminder that consumer outcomes and service mix still drive real earnings power. [30] - Guidance credibility vs. valuation
Intuit’s revenue growth guide remains strong, but the market has shown it can be sensitive when EPS ranges disappoint. [31] - Holiday-week liquidity
With early closes ahead, smaller orders can push price more than usual—especially around headlines. [32]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. investors.intuit.com, 6. investors.intuit.com, 7. investors.intuit.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.ft.com, 10. investors.intuit.com, 11. investors.intuit.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. investors.intuit.com, 14. apnews.com, 15. finance.yahoo.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.zacks.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. finance.yahoo.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.stocktitan.net, 22. www.tradingview.com, 23. investors.intuit.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. investors.intuit.com, 26. investors.intuit.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. investors.intuit.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. investors.intuit.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com
