Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) stock is back in focus on December 15, 2025, as Wall Street recalibrates expectations for the TurboTax and QuickBooks owner heading into the heart of U.S. tax season. Shares were trading around $659 in the latest session, down roughly 1.8% after a choppy stretch that saw strong up-days last week followed by renewed selling pressure today. [1]
The day’s headline catalyst is a fresh analyst move from Wolfe Research, which lowered its price target on Intuit to $830 from $870 while maintaining an Outperform rating—a sign that bullish long-term conviction remains, even as near-term valuation and execution questions persist. [2]
Below is a detailed breakdown of what’s driving INTU stock today, the latest forecasts and guidance shaping expectations, and the key risks and catalysts investors are watching next.
INTU stock price action on December 15, 2025: What the market is doing
In the latest trading session (Dec. 15), INTU traded at $658.95, down 1.79% on the day, after opening near $670 and touching an intraday high around $671. [3]
That pullback matters because it comes after a brief rebound last week (including a strong move on Dec. 11). [4] The tape suggests investors are actively balancing a bullish structural story (AI-enabled financial workflows + recurring subscription economics) against typical late-year positioning, valuation sensitivity, and a visible wave of insider sales filings.
The big Dec. 15 analyst headline: Wolfe trims target, keeps bullish stance
On Dec. 15, 2025, Wolfe Research adjusted its price target on Intuit to $830 from $870 and reiterated Outperform. [5]
Why it matters:
- A target cut often reflects fine-tuning of assumptions (growth, margins, multiple) rather than a full thesis break.
- Importantly, the rating remained positive, implying Wolfe still sees favorable medium-term upside—just at a slightly more conservative level.
At today’s roughly $659 trading level, a $830 target still implies about 26% upside (before dividends), but the direction of revisions is what traders often react to first.
The core narrative still powering Intuit stock: AI agents + a $100M+ OpenAI partnership
Intuit has positioned itself as a major “applied AI” story in fintech and accounting software—less about building frontier models and more about monetizing AI through workflow automation and financial decisioning.
A key pillar is Intuit’s multi-year partnership with OpenAI valued at more than $100 million, announced in mid-November. Reuters reported that Intuit plans to use OpenAI models to power AI agents across products, and that Intuit tools like TurboTax, Credit Karma, and QuickBooks would be accessible through ChatGPT for actions such as estimating refunds and loan scenarios. [6]
Reuters also noted Intuit had raised prices for QuickBooks Online and payroll subscriptions in July following the launch of AI agents, signaling confidence in willingness-to-pay as the product evolves. [7]
From an INTU stock perspective, this AI strategy matters for three reasons:
- Pricing power: AI features can justify higher ARPU (average revenue per user) if the value is tangible.
- Retention: Workflow automation increases switching costs for SMBs and tax filers.
- Expansion: AI-assisted experiences can widen the addressable market by lowering the complexity barrier for non-experts.
Earnings backdrop investors are still digesting: strong Q1, cautious Q2 EPS outlook
Today’s movement in Intuit stock is also happening in the wake of Intuit’s latest earnings and forward outlook.
What Reuters reported from Intuit’s latest outlook
Reuters reported that on Nov. 20, Intuit forecast Q2 revenue growth of about 14% to 15%, above analyst expectations (LSEG data cited by Reuters). [8]
But the same Reuters report flagged the key sticking point for traders: Intuit’s adjusted EPS outlook of $3.63 to $3.68 for the quarter came in below the estimated $3.83. [9]
Reuters also highlighted Q1 strength, reporting:
- Revenue rose 18% to $3.89 billion (beating estimates)
- Adjusted EPS of $3.34 (also beating estimates) [10]
Guidance ranges in dollars (what the market is anchoring to)
A widely-circulated guidance summary also lists Intuit’s Q2 revenue guidance at roughly $4.52B–$4.56B and EPS guidance at $3.63–$3.68, consistent with the ranges reported around the Q1 release period. [11]
The market takeaway: growth looks healthy, but near-term profitability expectations are being managed carefully, which can trigger volatility when the stock trades at a premium multiple.
“Why did INTU fall if results were strong?” The recurring theme: guidance vs. buy-side expectations
This is a common dynamic in high-quality software/platform names:
- The company beats the quarter.
- The stock still sells off if forward guidance doesn’t exceed investor “whisper” expectations.
One investor commentary circulated in recent weeks described Intuit as trading lower despite strong results, attributing the drop to forward guidance not meeting buy-side expectations—an explanation that aligns with the way markets often trade “beat-and-raise” setups. [12]
Institutional buying shows up in filings, but insiders have been selling
Institutional positioning: new stakes and increases
Fresh SEC filing coverage points to continued institutional participation. For example, MarketBeat reported that Milestones Private Investment Advisors LLC initiated a position (1,748 shares valued about $1.38 million) and that institutional investors own roughly 83.66% of Intuit stock. [13]
A separate MarketBeat filing write-up said Advisory Services Network LLC increased its stake by 26.1% (holding 13,596 shares valued at about $10.675 million). [14]
It’s important context—but also important to remember: 13F-based stories can reflect prior-quarter positioning rather than real-time buying.
Insider selling: the headline that keeps surfacing
At the same time, insider selling has been notable in December headlines:
- Investing.com reported that Director Scott D. Cook sold about $98.0 million in Intuit shares across December 8 and 9, executed under a Rule 10b5-1 plan (adopted Sept. 3, 2025). After the transactions, the related trust still held ~5.82 million shares. [15]
- Investing.com also reported a smaller transaction: Director Richard L. Dalzell sold 333 shares on Dec. 11 for roughly $219,763, while noting Intuit’s valuation metrics (including a P/E in the mid-40s at the time). [16]
Insider selling is not automatically bearish—executives sell for many reasons, and 10b5-1 plans reduce the “signal” content—but the size of certain sales can still affect sentiment, especially during a soft tape.
Dividend: raised payout, next key dates ahead
Intuit’s shareholder-return story is a smaller part of the INTU narrative than growth, but it still matters—especially for long-only funds.
Reuters reported that Intuit’s board approved a quarterly dividend of $1.20 per share, representing a 15% increase from a year ago. [17]
Intuit’s investor materials list upcoming dividend details including an ex-dividend date of 2026-01-09 and a payment date of 2026-01-16 for the $1.20 quarterly dividend. [18]
At current prices, that works out to an annualized dividend of $4.80 (a yield under 1%), but the growth rate of the dividend can matter for total-return positioning.
Governance and leadership: chair transition and board additions on the calendar
Reuters also reported notable governance developments tied to Intuit’s forward-looking strategy:
- CEO Sasan Goodarzi is set to become board chair on January 22, 2026
- Intuit also named Bill McDermott (ServiceNow CEO) and Adena Friedman (Nasdaq CEO) to its board, effective August 2026 [19]
Separately, Intuit’s investor relations calendar lists an Annual Stockholder Meeting on Jan. 22, 2026—the same date Reuters highlighted for the chair transition. [20]
For investors, this is less about a near-term trading catalyst and more about signaling: Intuit is adding leadership with deep enterprise software and market-structure experience.
INTU stock forecast: what Wall Street price targets imply as of Dec. 15, 2025
Consensus targets remain constructive overall, even with some downward revisions.
MarketBeat’s analyst compilation shows:
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy
- Average 12-month price target: $798.20
- High target: $900
- Low target: $530 [21]
Meanwhile, the day’s Wolfe note (target $830) sits above the consensus average while still representing a trim versus its prior view. [22]
A reasonable way to interpret the current forecast landscape:
- Base case: mid-to-high $700s target range (consensus)
- Bull case: $800s to $900 (AI-driven monetization + tax season execution)
- Bear case: low-to-mid $500s (macro-driven multiple compression or execution stumble)
Technical and trading levels traders are watching
Technical analysis won’t change Intuit’s long-term fundamentals, but it does influence short-term flows—especially in mega-cap software names where systematic strategies are active.
TipRanks’ technical dashboard (based on recent data) shows:
- RSI (14) around 56 (neutral)
- Pivot “classic” levels with support near the low-to-mid $660s and $650s, and resistance in the high $680s to low $690s [23]
Given today’s move back toward the mid-$650s area, that support band becomes a practical “line in the sand” for short-term traders.
Fundamentals check: what Intuit is (and why the market pays up)
Intuit’s premium valuation is typically justified by a mix of:
- Recurring subscription revenue (QuickBooks ecosystem)
- Highly profitable seasonal cash generation (TurboTax)
- Credit Karma monetization tied to consumer financial products
- Expanding AI-driven workflows
Intuit reported full-year fiscal 2025 revenue of $18.8 billion (up 16%), along with segment highlights including Global Business Solutions revenue of $11.1B and Consumer Group revenue of $4.9B (TurboTax Live revenue $2.0B). [24]
And the company continues to emphasize platform scale: Intuit says it has about 100 million customers worldwide across TurboTax, Credit Karma, QuickBooks, and Mailchimp. [25]
What to watch next for Intuit stock
Here are the next concrete catalysts and checkpoints for INTU investors as of Dec. 15, 2025:
- Tax season execution: Early indicators from the quarter ending Jan. 31 will matter for sentiment.
- AI product monetization: Evidence that AI agents drive measurable time savings, conversion, or attach rates could re-accelerate multiple expansion.
- OpenAI integration rollout: Investors will look for clarity on how ChatGPT integration affects engagement and acquisition—especially with “no revenue share” language reported around the deal. [26]
- Insider sale overhang: Watch whether large planned sales continue to hit filings.
- Next earnings window: MarketBeat estimates Intuit’s next earnings date as Feb. 24, 2026 (after market close) based on historical reporting patterns. [27]
- Dividend timing: Ex-div Jan. 9, 2026 and pay date Jan. 16, 2026 are the next key shareholder dates. [28]
- Annual stockholder meeting: Scheduled Jan. 22, 2026, aligning with the reported chair transition. [29]
Bottom line on INTU stock on December 15, 2025
Intuit stock is slipping today as markets digest a mix of bullish long-term AI narrative and more cautious near-term framing: a target cut from Wolfe, earnings guidance that didn’t fully clear elevated investor expectations, and repeated insider-sale headlines.
Still, the backbone of the bull case remains intact: Intuit is growing at double-digit rates, expanding its platform with AI agents, and pushing into new distribution via a high-profile OpenAI partnership—right as tax season becomes the most important near-term demand catalyst.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.marketscreener.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.marketscreener.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.benzinga.com, 12. finviz.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. investors.intuit.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. investors.intuit.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketscreener.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. investors.intuit.com, 25. investors.intuit.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. investors.intuit.com, 29. investors.intuit.com
