Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) heads into the final stretch of 2025 with multiple narrative “tailwinds” converging at once: a new stablecoin partnership aimed at speeding up money movement, a major AI tie-up with OpenAI, and fresh TurboTax/Credit Karma marketing initiatives designed to pull more consumers into its broader financial ecosystem.
As of Monday, December 22, 2025, Intuit shares traded at $675.71, up about 0.65% on the session, with an intraday range of $671.50–$679.26.
Below is what’s driving the story now, the forecasts that matter into early 2026, and the key risks investors should keep on the radar.
What’s moving Intuit stock on Dec. 22: the “digital dollar rail” thesis goes mainstream
The biggest new headline for Dec. 22 is Intuit’s executive-level messaging around stablecoins—framing them not as a crypto experiment, but as a practical new payments “rail” for everyday consumer and small-business workflows.
In a Fortune interview syndicated via inkl, CFO Sandeep Aujla described stablecoins as a new “digital dollar” rail that can help customers move money 24/7, settle near-instantly, and reduce costs versus legacy rails—positioning the shift as an infrastructure upgrade rather than a product gimmick. [1]
That commentary is directly connected to Intuit’s multi-year strategic partnership with Circle, announced Dec. 18, which establishes a framework for Intuit to use Circle’s stablecoin infrastructure and USDC across TurboTax, QuickBooks, and Credit Karma. [2]
The Circle partnership: why investors care beyond the crypto headlines
What Intuit actually announced
Intuit says the Circle partnership is designed to enable faster, lower-cost, and more global financial experiences across its products, leveraging USDC and Circle’s infrastructure. [3]
The company’s framing is important: Intuit isn’t pitching stablecoins as a speculative asset, but as a programmable mechanism that could improve refunds, payments, remittances, savings, and other money-movement flows that already sit at the center of its platforms. [4]
What it could mean in practice (near term vs. long term)
This matters because Intuit already operates at high money-flow volume through:
- TurboTax (tax refunds and filing-related payments),
- QuickBooks (invoicing, payroll, SMB payments),
- Credit Karma (consumer finance activity).
A stablecoin-enabled rail could, in theory, reduce friction for:
- refund disbursement speed,
- cross-border workflows for freelancers and SMBs,
- after-hours/weekend settlement where legacy rails slow down.
However, timelines and implementation details still matter. Crypto-focused coverage notes the companies have not publicly specified all technical rails (for example, which blockchain settlement layer will be used for USDC in this context). [5]
Regulation is part of the story now—not a footnote
One reason “stablecoins in mainstream fintech” became a more boardroom-friendly topic in 2025 is the arrival of a clearer U.S. policy framework.
The White House says the GENIUS Act, signed into law July 18, 2025, creates a federal regulatory system for stablecoins, including requirements described as 100% reserve backing with liquid assets and monthly public reserve disclosures, among other provisions. [6]
Intuit’s CFO specifically referenced regulation becoming clearer in the U.S. as stablecoin usage expands into everyday finance. [7]
TurboTax and Credit Karma go on offense for the 2026 filing season
Just days before the CFO’s stablecoin comments, Intuit launched the second year of its “Now This Is Taxes” campaign for tax year 2025 (taxes filed in 2026)—and the details reveal how Intuit wants to win share in a more competitive tax-prep environment. [8]
Key offers highlighted by Intuit include:
- DIY Free Mobile App Offer: Customers who didn’t use TurboTax last year can file for free through the TurboTax mobile app if they file by Feb. 28, 2026 (Intuit notes terms/eligibility apply). [9]
- Expert (Full Service) Offer: A flat $150 fee for federal + state filing (again, with timing/terms) if filed by Feb. 28, 2026. [10]
- A deeper emphasis on integrating TurboTax + Credit Karma experiences, including messaging around faster access to refunds and tools to use refunds strategically. [11]
For investors, the strategic point isn’t the marketing creative—it’s Intuit’s continued push to:
- bring more filers into its assisted/expert funnel, and
- keep them inside an “all-in-one” ecosystem spanning filing, credit, and money management. [12]
The OpenAI partnership: $100M+ deal that expands Intuit’s distribution
Another major pillar in Intuit’s 2025 narrative is AI distribution and automation.
Reuters reported that on Nov. 18, 2025, Intuit signed a multi-year deal worth more than $100 million with OpenAI to use OpenAI models to power AI agents across apps like TurboTax, and to make Intuit tools (including Credit Karma and QuickBooks) accessible through ChatGPT for tasks such as estimating refunds and exploring loan options. [13]
By Nov. 20, Reuters also noted Intuit said the integration would involve “no revenue share” and that privacy and security principles would remain unchanged. [14]
Why this matters for INTU stock:
- It potentially turns ChatGPT into a new top-of-funnel acquisition channel for Intuit’s products.
- It strengthens Intuit’s “done-for-you” positioning (AI + human expertise), which management has repeatedly emphasized in investor communications. [15]
The Financial Times also framed the partnership as enabling ChatGPT to connect to Intuit-powered financial services with customer opt-in controls. [16]
Earnings recap and guidance: what Wall Street is anchoring to
Intuit’s most recent earnings catalyst came in November.
Reuters reported that for the quarter ended Oct. 31, 2025 (Intuit fiscal Q1 2026), revenue rose 18% to $3.89 billion, and adjusted EPS was $3.34, both above consensus expectations. [17]
For the second quarter ending Jan. 31, Reuters said Intuit forecast:
- Revenue growth of about 14%–15% (above consensus growth expectations cited by Reuters),
- but adjusted EPS guidance of $3.63–$3.68, which Reuters noted was below the estimate referenced in the report. [18]
Intuit also reiterated confidence in delivering double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion for the fiscal year, according to Reuters. [19]
On capital return, Reuters reported Intuit’s board approved a quarterly dividend of $1.20 per share, a 15% increase from a year earlier. [20]
(An SEC filing summary also described the $1.20 dividend as payable Jan. 16, 2026, with a Jan. 9, 2026 record date.) [21]
Governance and leadership updates: board changes in motion
Alongside earnings updates, Intuit also announced governance changes and long-range board additions.
In a Nov. 20 release, Intuit said it appointed Bill McDermott (ServiceNow CEO) and Adena Friedman (Nasdaq CEO) to its board effective Aug. 1, 2026, and that CEO Sasan Goodarzi is set to become CEO and Board Chair on Jan. 22, 2026, with Vasant Prabhu becoming lead independent director at that time. [22]
Whether investors view this as a positive “AI and fintech credibility” signal or as a governance risk (combining CEO and chair roles) often depends on their broader philosophy—but it’s a concrete catalyst on the calendar. [23]
Competitive landscape: the IRS Direct File shift changes the backdrop
One of the biggest structural wildcards for consumer tax prep in 2026 is the competitive environment around “free” filing.
The Associated Press reported that the IRS Direct File program would not be available for the next tax season (the article framed it as a program being finished/ended). [24]
For Intuit, that kind of policy move can influence:
- the intensity of free-filing competition,
- consumer behavior around choosing DIY vs. assisted filing,
- and how aggressively Intuit needs to subsidize acquisition.
Intuit’s new tax season campaign and time-limited offers can be read as an effort to capture early-season momentum regardless of how the competitive map shifts. [25]
Analyst forecasts: price targets, ratings, and what “the Street” expects
As of Dec. 22, market data aggregators tracking Wall Street research show broadly constructive sentiment.
MarketBeat lists Intuit with a “Moderate Buy” consensus based on 29 analyst ratings, and a consensus 12‑month price target of $796.60 (with targets ranging from $530 to $900 on that page). [26]
Investors should treat consensus targets as directional rather than deterministic—especially for a premium software name where sentiment can shift quickly with guidance, tax-season trends, or competitive signals.
Outlook for 2026: the catalysts that could matter most for INTU
1) Early tax-season KPIs (January–April 2026)
Intuit’s own campaign details make clear the company is pushing hard into:
- early-season acquisition (free mobile filing for new customers through Feb. 28),
- and assisted/full-service conversion ($150 flat fee offer with a Feb. 28 deadline). [27]
Key investor question: does Intuit convert marketing into higher paid mix, not just higher volume?
2) “Money movement” product milestones (stablecoins)
The Circle partnership could become a multi-quarter narrative, but near-term investors will look for:
- implementation milestones,
- specific product use cases (refunds? payouts? cross-border?),
- and evidence the rail reduces costs or increases customer retention. [28]
3) AI agents: proving ROI, not just demos
The OpenAI partnership is headline-grabbing, but the market will likely reward:
- measurable productivity gains,
- improved attach rates (expert help, payroll, payments),
- and evidence AI reduces churn or increases ARPU. [29]
4) Mailchimp: the “execution gap” investors keep watching
Earlier in 2025, Reuters pointed to Mailchimp weakness weighing on Intuit’s outlook and share reaction at the time. [30]
If Mailchimp stabilizes, Intuit’s multi-product platform story looks cleaner; if not, it remains a drag on multiple expansion.
Risks to watch (and why they matter for Intuit stock)
Even with strong narratives, investors typically keep these risks in view:
- Guidance sensitivity: Intuit’s Q2 EPS outlook was described by Reuters as below the estimate referenced in its report, even as revenue growth outlook looked stronger—an example of how the stock can react to margin expectations. [31]
- Regulatory and reputational exposure: Tax filing is a trust business; policy shifts (like IRS Direct File changes) and consumer protection scrutiny can affect acquisition costs and product positioning. [32]
- Stablecoin execution risk: Even with regulatory clarity improving, product rollout, compliance burden, and customer adoption are not guaranteed—especially for mainstream consumers. [33]
- Valuation risk: With analyst targets implying upside but also a wide range, a premium multiple can compress quickly if growth disappoints. [34]
Bottom line: why INTU is in focus heading into 2026
On Dec. 22, 2025, Intuit stock is being pulled by three large, timely themes:
- Tax season execution (TurboTax + Credit Karma integration and aggressive early offers), [35]
- AI distribution and automation (OpenAI partnership and AI agents embedded into financial workflows), [36]
- A new payments narrative (Circle/USDC stablecoin rail positioning, supported by a clearer U.S. regulatory regime). [37]
References
1. www.inkl.com, 2. investors.intuit.com, 3. investors.intuit.com, 4. investors.intuit.com, 5. decrypt.co, 6. www.whitehouse.gov, 7. www.inkl.com, 8. investors.intuit.com, 9. investors.intuit.com, 10. investors.intuit.com, 11. investors.intuit.com, 12. investors.intuit.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.ft.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.stocktitan.net, 22. investors.intuit.com, 23. investors.intuit.com, 24. apnews.com, 25. investors.intuit.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. investors.intuit.com, 28. investors.intuit.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. apnews.com, 33. www.whitehouse.gov, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. investors.intuit.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. investors.intuit.com
