HOUSTON, August 14, 2026, 11:57 EDT — U.S. cash markets remain open.
Shares of Intuitive Machines, Inc. NASDAQ:LUNR rose 9.2% on Friday as analysts emphasized a record-setting backlog despite a miss in quarterly results. The company’s order book stands at $1.762 billion, amounting to 1.85 times the midpoint of its revenue forecast for 2026.
The coverage figure is significant. Achieving conversion remains the bigger challenge. Intuitive Machines must generate approximately $557 million in revenue for the second half to attain its $950 million midpoint target, which is 41.8% higher than sales in the first half.
The company posted second-quarter revenue of $206.2 million, marking a 310% rise compared to the same period a year ago. Revenue fell short of the FactSet consensus of $216.3 million by 4.7%. Adjusted EBITDA came in at negative $13.8 million, while analysts had projected a positive $3.2 million.
| Second-quarter measure | Reported | Benchmark | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $206.2 million | $216.3 million estimate | 4.7% lower |
| Revenue growth | 310% | $50.3 million year-ago | $155.9 million higher |
| Adjusted EBITDA | -$13.8 million | +$3.2 million estimate | Shortfall of $17.0 million |
| Operating loss | $47.1 million | $28.6 million year-ago | Loss increased by $18.5 million |
The backlog shifted market sentiment. It increased by $706.5 million, or 67%, since March. This rise came after $920 million in second-quarter contracts, the largest being a deal worth over $600 million for three commercial geostationary satellites.
| Backlog date or component | Amount | Change | Investor significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | $213.1 million | Base | Prior to Lanteris deal |
| March 31, 2026 | $1.055 billion | +$842.4 million | Includes $612.8 million in acquired backlog |
| June 30, 2026 | $1.762 billion | +$706.5 million from previous period | Highest quarter-end backlog on record |
| Commercial GEO program | Estimated at over $600 million | $45 million with notice to proceed | Roughly 34% of backlog by value estimate |
Currently, $45 million in authority to proceed backs the satellite program, representing 7.5% of the projected total value. The remaining amount hinges on program performance and subsequent contractual developments.
Chief Executive Steve Altemus said Intuitive Machines achieved “unprecedented bookings and backlog.” According to Altemus, the company is set for its next phase of growth. Orders were driven by commercial, civil, and national-security clients.
The business is diversifying. National-security income accounted for 30% of sales in the quarter, compared to 3% in the same period last year. In July, the company secured a contract for 18 spacecraft as part of the Accelerated Missile Defense Tranche 3 constellation.
| 2026 conversion test | Amount | Required change |
|---|---|---|
| Yearly revenue forecast | $900 million-$1.0 billion | No revision |
| Revenue for first six months | $392.9 million | Reported |
| Revenue needed in second half for midpoint | $557.1 million | Must rise 41.8% from first half |
| Required average quarterly revenue in latter half | $278.6 million | 35.1% higher than second quarter |
| Adjusted EBITDA, first half | -$11.1 million | More than $11.1 million needed in second half for positive full-year |
Stifel’s Jonathan Siegmann raised his rating on the stock to Buy from Hold, citing “It’s the backlog surge that is important.” His price target now stands at $26, down from a previous $32, citing weaker results in the near term. Barron’s
Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its Buy rating while lowering its price target to $32 from $43. Meanwhile, B. Riley increased its target to $45 from $43. The revisions highlight a divergence between improved contract visibility and a slower pace of near-term profit realization.
| Analyst or firm | Recommendation | Target | Latest action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andres Sheppard, Cantor Fitzgerald | Buy | $32 | Reaffirmed August 14 |
| Jonathan Siegmann, Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | $26 | Raised to Buy August 14 |
| Suji Desilva, Roth MKM | Buy | $30 | Rating held August 14 |
| Mike Crawford, B. Riley Securities | Buy | $45 | Rating held; target increased |
| Gregory Pendy, Clear Street | Buy | $44 | Maintained May 27 |
| Austin Moeller, Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $41 | Reaffirmed May 15 |
| Michael Leshock, KeyBanc | Buy | $27 | Maintained April 29 |
According to Google Finance, eight analysts have assigned a Buy rating to Intuitive Machines. Their mean price target stands at $34, representing a 77.4% premium over the $19.17 price quoted in late morning trading. Shares reached an intraday peak of $20.47, with volume surpassing the usual daily level.
Liquidity continues to be sufficient, though funds are being utilized. Cash totaled $367.4 million in June, compared to $582.6 million in December. Free cash flow for the first half was negative $145.8 million, reflecting capital used for acquisitions, inventory and increased production capacity.
Risks: Backlog does not represent assured revenue. Contract terms may shift, launches could be delayed, and customer base is still concentrated. Shares face execution, financing, dilution, and spacecraft failure risks, and profitability has yet to be demonstrated.
