December 15, 2025 — IREN Limited (NASDAQ: IREN) is back in the spotlight as one of the most volatile “AI infrastructure” trades in U.S. markets. After a breathtaking surge earlier in 2025—driven by its pivot from bitcoin mining toward high-performance AI compute—IREN shares are now fighting through a sharp drawdown, with investors weighing dilution, capital intensity, and execution risk against a blockbuster hyperscaler contract.
As of Dec. 15, 2025 at 17:29 UTC, IREN stock traded at $36.31, down 9.5% on the day, after swinging between $35.59 and $40.63 on roughly 30.3 million shares of volume.
This article rounds up the key news, analyst commentary, and forecast signals circulating on Dec. 15, 2025, and explains what matters most for readers tracking IREN stock into 2026.
What’s happening with IREN stock today
The big headline for Monday is simple: the selloff is back, and it’s happening in a name that has become a proxy for the broader “neocloud” trade—companies racing to build GPU-heavy data centers for AI customers, often funded by aggressive capital raises.
Several narratives are hitting the tape at the same time:
- “Buy the dip” analysts argue the pullback has become sentiment-driven rather than fundamental.
- Skeptics point to the sheer capex and financing load required to deliver AI capacity on schedule—and the dilution risks that come with it.
- Positioning and profit-taking are also in focus, as high-profile funds are reported to have trimmed exposure after the run.
B. Riley calls IREN’s slide a “buying opportunity” despite the drawdown
One of the most widely circulated notes today comes from B. Riley, which—according to a market recap referencing the research—maintained a Buy rating while framing IREN’s decline as a potential entry point.
Key points being repeated on Dec. 15:
- IREN is down about 47% from its Nov. 5 peak (B. Riley’s framing).
- The stock fell 8.2% to $36.82 in early trading in the session.
- The firm characterized the decline as sentiment-driven, not a sign of deteriorating fundamentals.
- The analyst discussion flagged a ~$2.7 billion “funding gap”, but also highlighted ~$8.85 billion in capital (including a $1.94 billion Microsoft prepayment, per the recap).
- The recap also points to recent financing activity including $2.3 billion in new notes and a $201 million capped call. [1]
It’s worth treating these figures as part of a sell-side framing exercise rather than a single definitive “balance sheet truth,” but they capture the core investor debate: Is the market over-penalizing IREN for raising capital to build, or underestimating the risks that come with that build?
Paul Tudor Jones reportedly trimmed IREN after a massive run
Another piece of Dec. 15 coverage focuses on institutional profit-taking.
A widely shared report says hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones’ Tudor Investment cut its IREN position by more than 90%, locking in gains after a dramatic rally. The same coverage frames IREN as one of 2025’s “explosive” AI infrastructure trades and ties the re-rating to the company’s Microsoft deal and GPU compute plans. [2]
Whether or not this selling changes the long-term thesis, it matters in the short term because IREN has traded like a momentum-heavy name all year: when big holders de-risk, it can amplify daily volatility, especially around catalysts like financings, lockups, and sector-wide “AI capex” headlines.
The deal that changed everything: IREN’s $9.7B Microsoft AI cloud contract
Any serious discussion of IREN stock still starts with Microsoft.
On Nov. 3, 2025, IREN announced a five-year GPU cloud services contract with Microsoft valued at approximately $9.7 billion, including a 20% prepayment. IREN also disclosed an agreement with Dell Technologies to purchase GPUs and equipment for about $5.8 billion to support the deployment. [3]
The company said the GPUs are expected to be deployed in phases through 2026 at its 750MW Childress, Texas campus, alongside liquid-cooled data centers supporting 200MW of critical IT load. [4]
Why this is so important for investors:
- It’s a marquee validation event. Many miners and data-center operators talk about AI pivots; far fewer land a contract of this scale with a hyperscaler.
- It sets expectations for execution. Reuters has reported that the contract may be terminable if IREN fails to meet delivery schedules, which makes construction timelines and commissioning progress market-moving variables. [5]
- It highlights the core constraint in AI: supply of usable compute. Microsoft’s CFO has publicly acknowledged that AI capacity constraints are expected to persist through mid-2026, reinforcing the backdrop for demand. [6]
The capital raise investors can’t ignore: $2.3B convertibles + a large equity issuance
If Microsoft is the upside narrative, financing is the stress test.
In early December, IREN announced and then closed a major package of transactions:
- A $2.3 billion convertible notes offering (split across 0.25% notes due 2032 and 1.00% notes due 2033, with a $300 million greenshoe exercised).
- A set of capped call transactions designed to hedge dilution up to an initial cap price of $82.24 per share.
- Repurchase of about $544.3 million principal amount of existing convertibles.
- A registered direct placement of ~39.7 million ordinary shares at $41.12 per share to fund the repurchase.
- Net proceeds from the convertible offering of about $2.27 billion (after discounts and estimated expenses), with remaining proceeds intended for general corporate purposes and working capital after deal-related uses. [7]
A Reuters summary of the earlier pricing also noted that the stock had tumbled 15% after the offerings were unveiled, underscoring how quickly the market can shift from “growth excitement” to “dilution fear” in this sector. [8]
Why dilution anxiety keeps resurfacing
Even when capped calls reduce some conversion dilution, investors tend to focus on:
- Share count expansion
- Convertible arbitrage / hedging pressure
- The risk that more capital raises may be needed if build costs rise or deployment schedules slip
That’s especially true for companies pursuing GPU-scaleouts, where hardware procurement + power + cooling + construction turns into a heavy-industry challenge, not a software story.
“Neocloud” sentiment has been fragile: Oracle headlines hit the group recently
IREN isn’t trading in isolation.
In the past week, commentary about AI spending and profitability has rattled the broader cohort of AI cloud capacity providers. For example, a recent market recap noted that shares of CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN fell in the wake of Oracle’s mixed quarterly report and related investor worries about near-term profitability and rising capex. [9]
This matters for IREN shareholders because cross-ownership and thematic funds often treat these names as a basket: a risk-off day in one can spill into the others.
IREN’s operational targets: $3.4B AI Cloud ARR and 140,000 GPUs by end of 2026
IREN’s bull case is not just “AI demand exists.” It’s that IREN can scale quickly into that demand with secured power and facilities.
In its Q1 FY26 update (released in early November), the company said it is targeting $3.4 billion in AI Cloud annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) by the end of 2026, alongside an expansion to 140,000 GPUs. [10]
The same update also highlighted:
- The Microsoft contract’s expected contribution of roughly $1.9 billion expected ARR (as presented in the release)
- Additional multi-year contracts (including Together AI, Fluidstack, and Fireworks AI) to support growth targets [11]
On the financial side, IREN reported record quarterly revenue of $240.3 million (up 355% year-over-year) and adjusted EBITDA of $91.7 million, while noting that reported net income included unrealized gains tied largely to financial instruments associated with convertibles and capped calls. [12]
In other words: headline profitability metrics need context—but the growth ambition is unmistakable.
IREN stock forecast: where Wall Street stands as of Dec. 15, 2025
Because IREN sits at the intersection of AI infrastructure, power scarcity, and capital markets, it’s no surprise that price targets are wide.
Here are the main consensus signals investors are citing:
- MarketBeat lists a “Moderate Buy” consensus based on 18 analyst ratings, with an average 12-month price target of $69.85 (high $105, low $29). [13]
- A Reuters / LSEG snapshot (via a Reuters market note) said that among 13 analysts, 9 rate IREN “strong buy” or “buy,” 2 “hold,” and 2 “sell,” with a median price target of $80. [14]
- B. Riley’s $74 target has become a frequently repeated reference point in today’s dip-buying narrative, stemming from the firm’s maintained Buy stance (and earlier target hike). [15]
What the dispersion is really saying
The Street broadly agrees on one thing: AI compute demand is real.
The disagreement is about whether IREN can convert that demand into:
- on-time delivery,
- stable unit economics,
- and shareholder-friendly financing.
High targets tend to assume fast ramps and strong utilization. Low targets reflect worries about capital structure, execution slips, or broader multiple compression across AI infrastructure.
The bear case in one sentence: capex and financing risk
A key theme today is that IREN’s AI buildout is expensive—and the market is increasingly intolerant of “growth at any cost.”
A Zacks note circulating on Dec. 15 emphasizes how rapidly mounting capex can challenge sustainability, while also pointing to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for IREN’s fiscal 2026 earnings of $0.79 per share (a sharp year-over-year improvement, per the note). [16]
Even bulls generally concede: this is a stock where execution and funding will drive the next major move, not just “AI hype.”
What investors should watch next
For readers tracking IREN stock into 2026, these are the catalysts most likely to matter:
1) Microsoft deployment milestones through 2026
Each update on:
- construction progress at Childress,
- liquid-cooling readiness,
- and GPU delivery timelines
can change sentiment quickly—because delivery schedules are explicitly tied to contract credibility. [17]
2) Additional hyperscaler or enterprise AI contracts
IREN has positioned itself as a platform with “scarcity assets”: power + land + data centers. New contracts would support the argument that Microsoft is not a one-off. [18]
3) Financing strategy and cost of capital
Investors will be watching whether IREN can:
- fund capex without repeated dilution shocks,
- manage convertible overhang,
- and maintain flexibility if markets tighten again. [19]
4) Sector-wide “AI capex” sentiment
Moves in mega-cap and large-cap cloud names can spill into neocloud valuations—especially when earnings or guidance raises doubts about the near-term profit picture. [20]
Bottom line on IREN stock on Dec. 15, 2025
IREN remains one of the market’s clearest examples of the new AI infrastructure trade: companies that look less like software firms and more like utilities-plus-construction-plus-finance—trying to deliver scarce compute capacity at hyperscaler scale.
Today’s coverage captures the tension:
- Bulls see a sentiment-driven pullback in a company that landed a defining Microsoft contract and is building into a real capacity crunch. [21]
- Bears see a capital-intensive build with dilution and deadline risk, where one or two execution missteps could reset the valuation fast. [22]
References
1. phemex.com, 2. www.benzinga.com, 3. www.globenewswire.com, 4. www.globenewswire.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.globenewswire.com, 8. www.tradingview.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.tradingview.com, 15. phemex.com, 16. www.zacks.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.globenewswire.com, 19. www.globenewswire.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.globenewswire.com, 22. www.globenewswire.com
