iRobot (IRBT) Stock Today: Short‑Squeeze Frenzy, Bankruptcy Risk and 2025

As of December 11, 2025, iRobot Corporation (NASDAQ: IRBT) is the latest meme‑style battleground stock on Wall Street: the share price has exploded, short interest is among the highest in the U.S. market, and yet the company continues to warn investors it may be forced to seek bankruptcy protection if new funding does not materialize. ^[1]

This article pulls together the latest news, numbers, forecasts and analyses as of December 11, 2025, to give a structured view of what is happening with iRobot stock right now.

1. IRBT stock today: price, volume and performance snapshot

According to TradingView data, iRobot stock is trading around $5.24, up roughly 48% in the last 24 hours, with trading volume near 128.8 million shares versus an average of about 11 million. ^[2]

Key performance metrics:

Price today: ≈ $5.24
Market cap: roughly $110–115 million ^[3]
1‑week move: up more than 140%
1‑month move: up about 130%
1‑year move: still down more than 40%
52‑week range: roughly $1.40–$13.06 ^[4]

In other words: IRBT has collapsed over multiple years, then suddenly tripled from its recent lows in a matter of days.

2. Why iRobot stock is surging: a classic short‑squeeze setup

Retail traders and meme‑stock dynamics

On December 10, Business Insider reported that IRBT shares were up 72% in just four days, reaching intraday levels around $5.20, with no major fundamental news from the company. Retail traders on Stocktwits and X framed the move explicitly as a short squeeze, with sentiment indicators on Stocktwits showing “Extremely Bullish.” ^[5]

Barchart, in a December 10 column titled “Nearly 45% of Its Float Is Being Sold Short. Should You Bet on iRobot Stock Here?”, notes that IRBT blew past key resistance at $4.82, with the stock trading at roughly 3.5× its price on November 20. The article calls IRBT a “perfect candidate for a short squeeze”, but argues that chasing the rally is risky because the move is largely detached from fundamentals. ^[6]

MarketBeat and Finviz similarly describe iRobot as a “broken company caught in a massive short squeeze,” highlighting that the stock was up about 133% in a single week despite deep operational challenges. ^[7]

Extreme short interest and days‑to‑cover

Several datasets now show extraordinary short interest:

Business Insider cites ~40% of the float short with a “days‑to‑cover” metric of just 0.14 days, reflecting heavy trading and high turnover. ^[8]
Barchart and MarketBeat point to “nearly 45%” of the float sold short by December 10. ^[9]
A Benzinga short‑interest report, using exchange‑reported data, says 14.11 million shares are sold short, equal to 63.27% of the float, and estimates 7.35 days to cover at recent trading volumes. ^[10]

Even allowing for methodology differences between data providers, all of these figures put iRobot in the extreme‑high‑short‑interest camp. Elevated borrow fees for shorts, documented by Fintel, reinforce that IRBT has become an expensive and crowded short. ^[11]

Policy headlines and the “White House robotics” narrative

Momentum has also been linked to recent U.S. robotics policy news:

A Seeking Alpha news item (widely syndicated) reported that traders piled into iRobot and Serve Robotics ahead of a White House robotics announcement. ^[12]
Finviz/MarketBeat’s robotics‑sector piece describes “new policy tailwinds” and notes that IRBT was the biggest robotics mover, despite being “deeply challenged” fundamentally. ^[13]
Barchart explicitly says meme‑stock enthusiasts “continue to flock into iRobot following reports the U.S. government is ‘all in’ on accelerating the domestic robotics industry.” ^[14]

So the current rally is best understood as a policy‑flavored, meme‑stock style short squeeze: heavy short interest, social‑media hype, and a government narrative have combined into a technical firestorm.

3. Under the hood: iRobot’s Q3 2025 results

The fundamentals behind the stock look very different from the chart.

Revenue, margins and losses

A detailed breakdown of Q3 2025 from Vacuum Wars (which summarizes iRobot’s own filings) shows: ^[15]

Revenue:
- $145.8 million in Q3 2025
- Down from $193.4 million in Q3 2024 (≈ 25% decline year‑over‑year)
Gross margin:
- 31.0% (GAAP), down from 32.2%
- 31.2% (non‑GAAP), down from 32.4%
Operating results:
- GAAP operating loss:$17.7 million, versus a $7.3 million profit in the year‑ago quarter
- Non‑GAAP operating loss:$9.9 million, versus $15.1 million profit a year earlier

Regionally, Q3 sales were down across all major markets: ^[16]

United States: –33%
EMEA: –13% (–14% on a currency‑adjusted basis)
Japan: –9% (roughly flat in constant currency)

Public.com’s earnings page confirms that iRobot reported Q3 EPS of –$0.23, beating a consensus estimate of –$0.65, but still firmly negative. Earlier in 2025, Q1 EPS came in at –$1.95 and Q2 at –$0.27, with Q4 2024 at –$2.06, underscoring a multi‑quarter pattern of losses. ^[17]

Cash burn and “no additional sources of capital”

The same Vacuum Wars analysis and The Verge’s November coverage highlight how quickly cash has been evaporating: ^[18]

Cash (including equivalents) fell from $40.6 million in June 2025 to $24.8 million at the end of Q3.
iRobot also had $5 million in restricted cash, which was fully used on September 30.
In its filings, the company states that it currently has no other sources of additional capital available.

CEO Gary Cohen attributed the weak quarter to “continuing market headwinds, ongoing production delays, and unforeseen shipping disruptions,” which pushed revenue below internal expectations and increased cash usage. ^[19]

Taken together, Q3 2025 shows a business with:

Shrinking revenue,
Compressed margins,
Consistent operating losses, and
Very limited liquidity.

That backdrop is crucial context for interpreting the current short‑squeeze driven price action.

4. Debt, Picea and bankruptcy risk

The Amazon deal that never closed

Many of today’s problems trace back to the failed Amazon acquisition:

In 2022, Amazon agreed to buy iRobot for $61 per share, valuing the deal at roughly $1.4–1.65 billion. ^[20]
Regulatory scrutiny from U.S. and EU antitrust authorities dragged on, and in January 2024 the companies jointly terminated the deal, citing “no path to regulatory approval in the European Union.” ^[21]
iRobot, which had burned cash while waiting for the deal, then cut about 31% of its workforce, and founder‑CEO Colin Angle stepped down. ^[22]

Since then, the company has repeatedly warned about its financial condition. In March 2025, it told investors there was “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue as a going concern over the following 12 months. ^[23]

The Carlyle loan and its sale to Picea’s affiliate

To plug the hole left by the failed deal, iRobot had earlier taken out a $200 million loan from the Carlyle Group in 2023. ^[24]

On December 1, 2025, Bloomberg reported that Carlyle sold roughly $191 million of outstanding debt (principal plus interest) to Santrum Hong Kong Co., a subsidiary of Shenzhen PICEA Robotics, which is also iRobot’s primary contract manufacturer. ^[25]

According to the related Form 8‑K summary:

Santrum assumed $190.7 million outstanding under iRobot’s credit agreement.
Picea, the parent company, is simultaneously owed $161.5 million for manufacturing iRobot products, of which $90.9 million was past due as of November 24, 2025. ^[26]
iRobot says it is in ongoing discussions with Picea regarding both the non‑payment and ways to obtain additional capital needed to keep operations going. ^[27]

In plain terms: iRobot’s largest creditor is now also its key manufacturer, and it owes that manufacturer a large sum it currently cannot pay.

Public warnings about potential bankruptcy

Recent coverage from The Verge and Business Insider emphasizes how close iRobot is to the brink: ^[28]

iRobot has repeatedly warned that without fresh capital or a buyer, it may have to “significantly curtail or cease operations and would likely seek bankruptcy protection.”
The company disclosed that its last serious potential buyer walked away in October 2025, after making an offer “significantly lower” than the stock’s recent trading price. ^[29]
Covenant waivers on its debt had only been extended through December 1, 2025; the 8‑K restructuring and the Santrum/Picea debt assumption are part of an effort to buy more time. ^[30]

As of December 11, 2025, there is no public indication that these structural problems have been resolved. The current rally does not remove the risk that iRobot could end up in a court‑supervised restructuring where existing equity might be heavily diluted or wiped out.

5. Business strategy: new Roomba lineup in a crowded market

While the financial picture is dire, iRobot is still trying to compete on product.

In early 2025, the company launched its largest robot‑vacuum product refresh ever, unveiling eight new Roomba models with a full design overhaul and, for the first time, lidar‑based navigation and mapping (a technology rivals had used for years). ^[31]

Highlights from The Verge’s coverage: ^[32]

New models range from entry‑level 105 and 205 series (around $299–$469) to higher‑end 405 and 505 combo robots priced up to $999.
All models adopt lidar for mapping, ultrasonic carpet detection for better mopping behavior, and an updated app with real‑time cleaning views.
The high‑end 505 model offers dual spinning mop pads and a dock that can wash and dry mop pads and empty the dustbin automatically.
The lineup is explicitly designed to look and behave more like competitors such as Roborock, Dreame and Ecovacs.

Analysts and reviewers are divided on whether this “if you can’t beat them, join them” strategy can revive iRobot’s fortunes:

The Verge calls the launch a bid to “save the struggling company,” but notes that iRobot appears to be “capitulating to the competition” rather than leading it. ^[33]
A Reason article citing market research notes that iRobot’s global shipments fell 6.7% in 2024, with global market share slipping to 13.7%, and points out that some major buying guides (like Wirecutter) have moved away from recommending Roombas in favor of Chinese rivals. ^[34]

The new lineup is therefore a necessary but unproven pillar of any turnaround thesis.

6. What traditional Wall Street analysts are saying

One striking element of the IRBT story is how little conventional analyst coverage remains.

The StockAnalysis.com forecast page shows: ^[35]

No 12‑month price targets published in the last year.
A consensus rating of “Hold” based on one analyst (Needham’s James Ricchiuti), who has repeatedly reiterated “Hold” with no explicit target.
Wall Street revenue and EPS forecasts (aggregated from Finnhub data) that still model a recovery:
- Revenue 2025: about $535.6 million, down 21% from 2024.
- Revenue 2026: about $907.3 million, implying 69% growth from 2025.
- EPS 2025: around –$3.57;
- EPS 2026: around –$1.13, still negative but improving.

Barchart’s analysis explicitly flags that IRBT “lacks broad‑based Wall Street coverage”, a point it uses to argue that price moves are likely to remain sentiment‑driven and volatile, with little institutional research anchoring valuations. ^[36]

In short: traditional sell‑side research is thin, and where it exists, it models continued losses, albeit with some hope of revenue recovery if the company survives.

7. Algorithmic & AI‑driven stock forecasts (2025–2030 and beyond)

A growing number of AI/quant sites publish public forecasts for IRBT. These are not fundamental research and should be treated as model outputs, not certainties, but they do shape online sentiment.

CoinCodex: mildly bearish long‑term

CoinCodex’s iRobot price‑prediction page, updated December 11, shows: ^[37]

Near‑term (next 5 days): minimal movement, with IRBT projected around $5.21–$5.22, implying a small decline from current levels.
Full‑year 2025: expected to trade in a narrow $5.20–$5.23 band, for a 0.22% theoretical return.
1‑year forecast: around $5.07, implying a –2.9% move from today.
2030 forecast: around $3.41, implying roughly –35% downside over five years.

CoinCodex labels the technical outlook “Bullish” (85% of indicators bullish, 15% bearish) based purely on moving averages and momentum – a reflection of the recent price surge rather than the balance sheet.

Intellectia.ai: short‑term “Strong Buy,” long‑term deterioration

Intellectia’s forecast page for IRBT mixes technical signals, seasonality and pattern matching: ^[38]

It describes IRBT as a “Strong Buy candidate” in the short run, citing multiple bullish technical indicators and a rising trend.
A 1‑month pattern‑matching model predicts about +3.6% upside from December 8 levels.
But its longer‑term projections are actually lower than today’s price:
- December 2026 average: about $2.99 (range $2.50–$3.08)
- December 2030 average: about $1.06 (range $1.03–$1.10)

Intellectia also notes that based on historical seasonality, December has the highest probability (≈72.7%) of a positive monthly return for IRBT, which may be feeding into short‑term optimism.

StockScan: extremely bullish long‑range scenarios

By contrast, StockScan publishes aggressively bullish long‑term projections: ^[39]

2026 average target: around $73.37, implying a >1,300% gain from ≈$5.24, with monthly targets as high as $138 in April 2026.
2035 average:$11.04 (a bit more than a double from today).
2040 average:$33.40 (≈ 540% above current levels).
2050 average:$149.68, implying a 2,700%+ gain.

These numbers are model outputs extrapolating historical volatility and price patterns; they do not incorporate the legal, operational and bankruptcy risks highlighted in SEC filings and mainstream reporting. They are best understood as a mathematical “what‑if” curve, not a probability‑weighted forecast.

Bottom line on forecasts

Across algorithmic sites, there is no consensus:

Some technical models see short‑term upside but long‑term drift lower.
Others, like StockScan, envision spectacular multi‑decade gains.
None of these models can easily handle the binary nature of bankruptcy risk, where equity can go to zero.

For anyone analyzing IRBT, the company’s survival is the first question; price targets come second.

8. Themes from recent fundamental analysis

Several fundamental‑oriented platforms have weighed in on the stock in the last few weeks:

A Seeking Alpha article titled “iRobot’s Rally Fooled Investors, But The Balance Sheet Doesn’t Lie” (December 8) argues that the recent rally is not supported by the company’s financial position, emphasizing debt, negative equity and thin liquidity. The title alone telegraphs its conclusion, and SimplyWallSt flags this analysis in its IRBT updates feed. ^[40]
SimplyWallSt also marks a “new major risk – financial position” and notes that auditors formally raised going‑concern doubts earlier in 2025. ^[41]
MarketBeat’s robotics‑theme article calls iRobot “a broken company caught in a massive short squeeze,” rated “Reduce” by the small number of analysts still covering it. ^[42]
Barchart concludes that IRBT shares are “a dangerous trap for investors seeking lasting returns,” citing shrinking revenue, margin compression and heavily overbought technical readings (RSI near 70). ^[43]

The consistent thread: recent price spikes are seen as trader‑driven, while the core business remains distressed and dependent on successful restructuring.

9. Key risks and potential catalysts

Major risks

Based on the latest filings and coverage, the key risk factors for IRBT equity include: ^[44]

Bankruptcy / restructuring risk: The company explicitly states that it may have to seek bankruptcy protection if it cannot secure new funding or a strategic transaction.
Debt overhang: Roughly $190+ million in senior debt (now held by Santrum/Picea) and $161.5 million payable to Picea, of which $90.9 million is past due, leave little room for error.
Liquidity crunch: Cash is under $25 million and the company says it has no current sources of additional capital.
Operational dependence on a single key manufacturer (Picea): That partner is now also a major creditor, creating a complex conflict between supply continuity and debt recovery.
Competitive pressure: Strong competition from Roborock, Ecovacs, Dreame, Shark, Samsung and others shows up in declining shipments and market share. ^[45]
Legal/market‑index overhang: IRBT has been dropped from the Russell 3000 Value Index, and there is at least one class‑action lawsuit filed in 2025, adding to uncertainty. ^[46]

Possible positive catalysts

There are scenarios in which IRBT equity could retain value or even appreciate further, though each carries significant uncertainty:

Successful refinancing or capital injection from Picea/Santrum or another investor that materially extends the runway. ^[47]
Out‑of‑court restructuring that reduces debt burdens while preserving some equity value.
Better‑than‑expected reception of the new Roomba lineup, stabilizing revenue and margins. ^[48]
Continued meme‑stock / short‑squeeze dynamics, where trading flows drive price well beyond what fundamentals alone would justify, as we’ve seen this week. ^[49]

10. How to interpret IRBT as of December 11, 2025

Bringing it all together, the story of iRobot stock today looks like this:

The chart: explosive upside in a few sessions, huge volume, very high short interest, elevated borrow fees – textbook short‑squeeze territory. ^[50]
The business: shrinking sales, persistent losses, almost no free cash, and explicit going‑concern warnings. ^[51]
The balance sheet: heavy secured debt now held by a key supplier, large past‑due payables, and a clear risk that equity could be wiped out in a restructuring. ^[52]
The forecasts: Wall Street sees ongoing losses but some chance of revenue recovery if the company survives; AI/quant models disagree wildly, from slow decline to multi‑bagger scenarios, none of which can fully account for binary bankruptcy risk. ^[53]

For traders, IRBT has become a high‑beta vehicle for short‑term speculation, with price anchored more by positioning and sentiment than by fundamentals. For longer‑term investors, the key question is whether there is a credible path through the debt and liquidity crunch that leaves something meaningful for common shareholders.

11. Brief IRBT FAQ – December 11, 2025

Why is iRobot (IRBT) stock going up right now?
Primarily because of a short‑squeeze dynamic: the stock has extremely high short interest (40–60%+ of the float), rising borrow costs, and intense retail trader interest, all amplified by recent robotics policy headlines from Washington. ^[54]

Is iRobot going bankrupt?
The company has not filed for bankruptcy as of December 11, 2025, but it has repeatedly warned that bankruptcy is a real possibility if it cannot refinance debt or find new capital. It also states that it “may be forced to significantly curtail or cease operations” without such relief. ^[55]

What is iRobot’s stock price and market cap today?
IRBT is trading around $5.24 per share, up roughly 48% on the day, with a market cap near $110 million. ^[56]

Do analysts have a price target on IRBT?
There are no active 12‑month price targets published in the last year. Only one analyst (Needham) currently rates the stock, with a “Hold” rating and no target price disclosed. ^[57]

Is this article investment advice?
No. This article summarizes publicly available information as of December 11, 2025. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. iRobot is a distressed, highly volatile stock, and any decision regarding it should be made only after independent research and, where appropriate, consultation with a qualified financial professional.

References

iRobot (IRBT) Stock Today: Short‑Squeeze Frenzy, Bankruptcy Risk and 2025–2030 Forecasts