WASHINGTON, Feb 1, 2026, 04:18 EST
- Analysts anticipate the average refund will climb to around $4,167, approximately $1,000 higher than last year.
- The IRS is moving away from paper refund checks, encouraging taxpayers to use e-file and opt for direct deposit instead.
- Refunds linked to EITC and ACTC claims are being held until mid-February. The IRS expects most early filers to receive them by March 2 through direct deposit.
U.S. taxpayers may receive bigger IRS refunds this filing season, with analysts estimating the average refund at around $4,167—about $1,000 higher than last year. The increase is driven by new tax-law changes affecting 2025 returns. At the same time, the IRS is phasing out paper refund checks, pushing filers to opt for electronic payments.
The IRS kicked off the 2026 filing season on Jan. 26, anticipating around 164 million individual income-tax returns by the April 15 deadline. IRS Chief Executive Officer Frank Bisignano encouraged taxpayers to “speed the processing of their returns by using e-file,” instead of mailing paper forms. irs.gov
The IRS announced new tax-law provisions now claimed on a fresh Schedule 1-A, covering deductions for tips, overtime pay, car loan interest, and a boosted deduction for seniors. Taxpayers are also urged to have their banking details ready as paper refund checks are being phased out. Refund status is usually accessible about 24 hours after e-filing, or four weeks after mailing a paper return.
A KOMO News report noted the law increases the standard deduction to $15,750 for singles and $31,500 for married couples filing jointly. It also introduces a $6,000 “senior bonus” deduction for those aged 65 and up. Garrett Watson, policy analysis director at the Tax Foundation, put the average tax cut at about $610 but cautioned results will differ depending on the taxpayer. KOMO
The timing of refunds still depends on what’s in the return. The IRS says it can’t send out refunds tied to the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), a benefit for low- and moderate-income workers, or the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC), which is the refundable part of the child credit, until at least mid-February. For those who opted for direct deposit and have no other return issues, most early EITC and ACTC refunds should arrive by March 2, the agency said.
The IRS warns taxpayers not to view the 21-day refund timeline as guaranteed. Paper returns or corrected filings often take more time. According to a WTOP report referencing the Associated Press, the IRS workforce has shrunk from 102,000 to roughly 74,000 due to layoffs and resignations, intensifying challenges during tax season.
Tax prep companies are gearing up for the rush. The IRS highlights its Free File program, which provides free guided software via private partners for taxpayers with an adjusted gross income (AGI) of $89,000 or less. Names involved include TaxAct, TaxSlayer, and TaxHawk (FreeTaxUSA).
The White House framed the changes as a win for working families, dubbing this the “largest tax refund season” ever in U.S. history. It cited outside analysis suggesting refunds might climb “as much as 30% more” this year. The White House
The Wall Street Journal points to new deductions and expanded credits — like the bigger child tax credit — as factors that could boost refunds on 2025 tax returns.
