Published: December 6, 2025
Nokia Oyj stock has quietly turned into one of 2025’s more interesting transformation stories. After a strong rally earlier in the year – helped by a big AI push, a $1 billion strategic investment from NVIDIA, and improving credit quality – the shares have recently pulled back, leaving investors wondering what comes next for NOK stock.
Below is a deep dive into the latest Nokia Oyj stock news, forecasts and analyses as of December 6, 2025, with a focus on what matters most for holders and potential buyers.
Nokia Oyj stock today: price, performance and volatility
As of the latest close:
- New York (ADR: NOK) – Nokia closed at $6.07 on December 5, 2025, down about 1.5% on the day. [1]
- Helsinki (NOKIA.HE) – The Finnish listing ended at €5.23, also down about 1.6%. [2]
Short-term trading has been choppy:
- Over the last five sessions, NOK has oscillated between roughly $6.05 and $6.28. [3]
- A MarketWatch recap notes that the ADR fell 1.46% on Friday, underperforming U.S. indices and marking a second straight day of losses, with volume (about 17.8 million shares) well below its 50‑day average. [4]
- Over the past year, Nokia ADRs are still up around 43%, with a 52‑week range of $4.00 to $8.19. [5]
So while NOK is currently trading about one-quarter below its 52‑week high, it’s still significantly higher than where it started 2025 – reflecting a mix of optimism around the AI strategy and nerves about execution and valuation.
2025 earnings: strong Q3 puts Nokia back on the radar
The turning point for sentiment this year was Q3 2025.
Q3 2025 at a glance
Nokia’s third-quarter numbers, reported in late October, comfortably topped expectations: [6]
- Revenue: about €4.83 billion, up ~11.5% year-on-year, beating consensus by roughly €190 million.
- Comparable net sales: up around 12%, driven by strength in Optical Networks (about 19% growth) and other network infrastructure lines.
- Earnings: non‑GAAP EPS came in around €0.06, in line to slightly ahead of market forecasts.
- Margins: the quarter wasn’t perfect – gross margin slipped by about 150 basis points to roughly 44%, signaling cost or mix pressures. [7]
Market reaction was immediate. One recap notes that the stock jumped more than 10% intraday on the results, as investors welcomed the rebound in profitability and momentum in high‑capacity optical and AI‑focused cloud networking. [8]
Guidance and dividends
Following Q3, Nokia:
- Raised its 2025 operating profit guidance to a range of €1.7–2.2 billion, up from €1.6–2.1 billion. [9]
- Declared a €0.03 per share dividend, paid in November 2025. [10]
Taken together, Q3 signaled that the company’s investments in optical networks, AI‑driven cloud infrastructure and defense‑oriented connectivity are beginning to offset earlier headwinds in traditional mobile networks.
Capital Markets Day 2025: Nokia leans fully into the AI networking supercycle
On November 19, 2025, Nokia used its Capital Markets Day to outline a sweeping strategic reset around the AI-driven transformation of networks. [11]
New operating model from 2026
From January 1, 2026, Nokia will reorganize into:
- Network Infrastructure – focused on AI‑ready networks and data‑center growth (optical, IP and fixed networks).
- Mobile Infrastructure – core and radio networks, including 5G and the path to 6G.
The company also introduces a “Portfolio Businesses” bucket for non‑core assets that may be divested or restructured. External analysis from GSMA Intelligence notes that parts of Nokia’s private wireless offering (e.g., Enterprise Campus Edge and some industrial devices) land in this segment, while the core focus tightens around mission‑critical enterprise and defense customers. [12]
Long-term financial targets
Nokia’s new strategic KPIs and targets to 2028 are ambitious: [13]
- Network Infrastructure net sales CAGR (2025–2028): 6–8%, with 10–12% targeted for the optical and IP combination.
- Network Infrastructure operating margin: 13–17% by 2028.
- Mobile Infrastructure gross margin: 48–50% by 2028, with operating profit growing from a base of about €1.5 billion.
- Group central costs: cut to about €150 million from a current run-rate around €350 million.
- Free cash flow conversion: 65–75% of comparable operating profit.
Separately, Nokia has indicated a 2028 operating profit goal in the €2.7–3.2 billion range, underlining management’s confidence that the AI networking boom can support double‑digit profit growth over time. [14]
NVIDIA’s $1 billion bet on Nokia: why it matters
One of the headline catalysts in 2025 was NVIDIA’s decision to invest $1.0 billion into Nokia and deepen a strategic partnership in AI networking.
According to Nokia’s official announcement from October 28, 2025: [15]
- NVIDIA is subscribing to roughly 166 million new Nokia shares at $6.01 per share, giving it about a 2.9% ownership stake.
- Proceeds are earmarked to accelerate Nokia’s AI and cloud networking ambitions, especially in 5G/6G radio access (AI‑RAN) and data‑center aligned switching and optical solutions.
- The two companies will co‑develop AI networking architectures, tying Nokia’s optical/IP strength into NVIDIA’s AI infrastructure stack.
For equity investors, the partnership matters less because of the exact ownership percentage and more as validation that Nokia’s network technology is relevant to the AI data‑center build‑out led by hyperscalers.
Moody’s turns positive: credit profile and liquidity
On December 4, 2025, Moody’s revised Nokia’s outlook to “positive” from “stable” while affirming its Ba1 rating. [16]
Key points from Moody’s rationale:
- Moody’s expects profitability to strengthen in 2026–2028, powered mainly by growth and margin expansion in network infrastructure, especially in optical and IP networking, where demand from hyperscalers and cloud providers is accelerating.
- The agency highlights Nokia’s strategy in AI-based network solutions and notes NVIDIA’s roughly 2.9% equity stake as supportive of that trajectory.
- Liquidity is strong, with:
- Around €6.1 billion in cash as of September 2025.
- A €1.5 billion revolving credit facility maturing in 2030.
- A €500 million facility maturing in 2027 (with extension options).
- Moody’s expects Nokia to maintain a net cash position and reduce adjusted leverage to below 2x by 2026. [17]
The positive outlook doesn’t change the speculative‑grade rating yet, but it reinforces the idea that Nokia’s balance sheet is no longer a central concern – an important backdrop for long‑term investors.
Deal flow: Telefónica Germany, KPN, Bharti Airtel, Tampnet and du
Alongside its strategic reset, Nokia has been busy signing network infrastructure contracts across key geographies:
- Telefónica Germany (O2 Telefónica) – A new 5‑year RAN and Cloud RAN deal will see Nokia modernize the operator’s radio access network and help expand 5G coverage across Germany. [18]
- Bharti Airtel (India) – Recent announcements highlight Nokia’s role in rolling out a network‑as‑code platform and exposing 5G network APIs to developers and enterprises, effectively turning connectivity features into a programmable service layer. [19]
- KPN (Netherlands) – Nokia is set to deploy IP and optical networks for KPN’s “FabriQ” upgrade, enhancing backbone capacity for Dutch fixed and mobile traffic. [20]
- Tampnet (Gulf of Mexico) – Nokia’s technology will power offshore 5G connectivity for energy and maritime customers in the Gulf of Mexico via Tampnet’s network. [21]
- du and other Middle East operators – Nokia has also highlighted autonomous 5G network slicing and related innovations with partners in the Gulf region. [22]
These deals underscore Nokia’s shift from being seen mainly as a “telco gear vendor” to a B2B infrastructure partner for AI, cloud and mission‑critical industries.
Valuation check: are Nokia shares expensive after the rally?
After a significant move higher in 2025, investors are divided on whether Nokia Oyj stock is now fairly valued or stretched.
Multiples and fundamentals
A GuruFocus analysis of Nokia after Q3 points to: [23]
- P/E ratio around the high‑20s.
- Price‑to‑sales and price‑to‑book close to the upper end of the company’s historical range.
- Net margin in the mid‑single digits and operating margin just below 4%, leaving room for improvement if the AI and network infrastructure strategy delivers.
From a trading perspective, the same piece notes that some indicators (such as RSI) have been in or near overbought territory, consistent with the strong post‑earnings rally.
A separate StocksToTrade breakdown emphasizes similar themes: revenue around $22 billion equivalent, but modest returns on assets and equity, with a P/E in the mid‑20s and a price‑to‑book ratio above 1.5. The article also highlights that the stock has been volatile, closely tied to investor reactions to downgrades, restructuring news and the Paris delisting plan. [24]
DCF-based concerns
Fundamental valuation site Simply Wall St recently asked whether Nokia is “still attractive” after a roughly 34% share price rally. Their DCF model suggests an intrinsic value of about €1.99 per share, implying the stock could be significantly overvalued on their assumptions (they estimate over 160% overvaluation). [25]
They also note:
- Nokia shares are up around 33–34% over the past 12 months and roughly 23% year‑to‑date, despite a noticeable pullback in the last month.
- The market is balancing enthusiasm over network infrastructure progress, 5G rollouts and strategic contracts against the risks of restructuring and cyclicality in telecom spending. [26]
To be clear, DCF results depend heavily on the chosen cash‑flow and discount‑rate assumptions, so different models can produce very different “fair values.” But the takeaway is that there is now a serious valuation debate around Nokia, rather than the clear “deep value” narrative it sometimes enjoyed in earlier years.
What are Wall Street analysts saying about NOK?
Analyst opinion is mixed, but overall tilts positive.
Consensus ratings & price targets
According to MarketBeat’s aggregation of 12 Wall Street analysts over the last year: [27]
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”.
- Breakdown: 8 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell.
- Average 12‑month price target: $6.10 – only slightly above the current price – with a range from $3.60 to $8.00.
Another dataset from StockAnalysis, focused on a smaller group of covering analysts, paints a more bullish picture: [28]
- Average price target: $7.50, implying roughly 24% upside from around $6.07.
- Rating: “Strong Buy” from this subset.
- Recent actions include:
- J.P. Morgan lifting its target from $7.10 to $8.00 and maintaining a Buy stance on December 1, 2025.
- Jefferies upgrading Nokia from Hold to Strong Buy in late October.
A separate report via Nasdaq notes that J.P. Morgan’s coverage sees average one‑year targets around $6.60, implying high‑single‑digit upside from recent levels and highlighting rising institutional ownership, with over 750 million shares held by funds. [29]
Not all sell-side views are upbeat
On the other side, some regional banks and brokers have turned more cautious:
- A November analysis cites Danske Bank and SEB Equities downgrading Nokia from Buy to Hold, with price targets around €6.50 and €5.50, respectively.
- Grupo Santander shifted its call to Neutral, arguing that the NVIDIA partnership, while strategically positive, may not translate into outsized near‑term earnings gains on its own. [30]
This divergence – some houses moving to “Strong Buy,” others stepping back to “Hold” – is exactly what you’d expect in a stock sitting at the crossroads of cyclical telecom exposure and structural AI growth potential.
Algorithmic and technical forecasts: what the models say
Quant and technical‑indicator platforms offer another, more mechanical lens.
Crypto‑adjacent analytics site CoinCodex currently estimates that: [31]
- NOK could rise about 6.9% to around $6.49 by early January 2026.
- Over the next week, its short‑term model projects a gain of about 2–3%, with a maximum around $6.24 in the near term.
- Technical sentiment is labeled “Neutral”, with the Fear & Greed Index at 39 (Fear) and 11 of the last 30 days (37%) counted as “green days”.
- The 50‑day SMA sits just above $6.00, and the 200‑day SMA near $5.18, suggesting that the longer‑term trend remains upward even as near‑term signals flip between buy and sell across shorter moving averages.
However, the same model forecasts a potential decline over the next year, with a mechanical 1‑year target near $5.19, and long‑term projections around $5.06 by 2030 under its baseline scenario. [32]
CoinCodex is explicit that these are not investment recommendations, and like any purely technical model, they ignore fundamental developments that could materially change the picture.
Institutional interest and ownership trends
Institutional ownership has been creeping higher in 2025:
- Penserra Capital Management, for example, recently disclosed an increase of about 51.7% in its Nokia ADR holdings, buying roughly 1.9 million additional shares in Q2. [33]
- J.P. Morgan data cited via Nasdaq notes that around 576 institutions report positions in Nokia ADRs, with total institutional holdings above 750 million shares and an increasing average portfolio weight over recent quarters. [34]
Rising institutional ownership doesn’t guarantee performance, but it does suggest Nokia is back on the radar of large, diversified investors, not just retail and niche telecom funds.
Key risks investors are watching
Despite the AI story and improving credit profile, several risk themes keep showing up in analysis and commentary:
- Mobile network cyclicality
Moody’s and others still expect growth in mobile infrastructure (especially radio access networks) to remain muted as many telcos digest earlier 5G investments. [35] - Execution risk on restructuring
Nokia is simplifying its structure and earmarking some units for potential sale. External observers have praised the focus on mission‑critical enterprise but also flagged uncertainties about what happens to the non‑core portfolio and whether cost and margin targets will be met on schedule. [36] - Valuation and over‑optimism
DCF‑based analyses and some fundamental screens argue that the stock may already be pricing in a lot of the AI upside. If growth or margins disappoint, the valuation could compress. [37] - Competitive intensity
The company faces strong rivals – particularly Ericsson and Chinese vendors – in both RAN and core networking, as well as competition from hyperscalers and specialist players in cloud, optical and data‑center interconnect. - Macro and capex risk
Large network deals are inherently tied to operator and enterprise capital‑spending cycles, which can slow sharply in a weaker macro environment.
What to watch next for Nokia Oyj stock
For investors tracking Nokia into 2026, a few dates and themes stand out:
- Q4 and full‑year 2025 results – Scheduled for January 29, 2026, these will provide the first full‑year read on Nokia’s AI‑era repositioning and updated guidance for 2026. [38]
- Transition to the new segment structure – From Q1 2026, Nokia will start reporting under its Network Infrastructure / Mobile Infrastructure / Portfolio Businesses setup, with recast 2024–2025 financials promised in early 2026. [39]
- Execution on AI‑driven contracts – Progress on the NVIDIA collaboration, major cloud and hyperscaler contracts, and delivery on the Telefónica, Bharti Airtel, KPN, Tampnet and du agreements will be closely watched as proof points that the AI supercycle thesis is translating into sustained revenue and margin expansion. [40]
- Further rating actions – With Moody’s outlook now positive, the market will monitor whether an eventual upgrade to investment grade becomes realistic if Nokia hits its profitability and deleveraging milestones. [41]
Bottom line: how the Nokia story looks as of December 6, 2025
As of December 6, 2025, the Nokia Oyj investment case can be summarized as a tension between:
- Bullish drivers
- Clear strategic pivot toward AI‑native networks and data‑center infrastructure.
- Stronger‑than‑expected Q3 2025 results and raised operating profit guidance.
- A $1 billion equity investment and partnership from NVIDIA, reinforcing Nokia’s role in the AI infrastructure stack.
- A Moody’s outlook upgrade to positive, underpinned by strong liquidity and expected margin improvement.
- Growing deal momentum with leading operators in Europe, India and the Gulf region.
- Bearish and cautious factors
- A richer valuation than in previous years, with some models flagging potential overvaluation relative to long‑term cash‑flow assumptions.
- Ongoing restructuring and portfolio pruning, which brings execution risk and uncertainty around non‑core assets.
- Mixed analyst sentiment, with downgrades from some European banks offsetting upgrades from global houses like J.P. Morgan and Jefferies.
- Structural challenges in the mobile network capex cycle, which could limit growth in parts of the business.
For now, Nokia looks less like a simple “deep value” turnaround and more like a controversial growth‑at‑a‑reasonable‑price (or not) play on the AI networking boom. Whether NOK stock is attractive at current levels ultimately depends on:
- How much confidence you have in management’s ability to hit its 2028 targets, and
- How much AI‑driven upside you believe is not yet reflected in today’s share price.
Important note
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Stock markets involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.nokia.com, 2. www.nokia.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. coincentral.com, 7. www.gurufocus.com, 8. coincentral.com, 9. www.gurufocus.com, 10. www.gurufocus.com, 11. www.nokia.com, 12. www.gsmaintelligence.com, 13. www.nokia.com, 14. www.businesstimes.com.sg, 15. www.nokia.com, 16. www.marketscreener.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.globenewswire.com, 19. www.marketscreener.com, 20. www.marketscreener.com, 21. www.marketscreener.com, 22. www.marketscreener.com, 23. www.gurufocus.com, 24. stockstotrade.com, 25. simplywall.st, 26. simplywall.st, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. www.nasdaq.com, 30. stockstotrade.com, 31. coincodex.com, 32. coincodex.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.nasdaq.com, 35. www.investing.com, 36. www.businesstimes.com.sg, 37. simplywall.st, 38. www.nokia.com, 39. www.nokia.com, 40. www.nokia.com, 41. www.marketscreener.com
