Published: December 6, 2025
Joby Aviation Inc. (NYSE: JOBY) remains one of the most closely watched names in the emerging electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) sector — and its stock is reflecting that attention. After a powerful rally in 2025, shares are now trading around the mid‑$15 range, up nearly 90% year to date and valuing the company at roughly $14 billion. [1]
At the same time, Wall Street is deeply divided. Some analysts see Joby as a first‑mover shaping an entirely new market; others see an expensive, loss‑making aviation project that may not turn profitable for years. Today’s fresh institutional ownership data, valuation commentary and new international partnerships are sharpening that debate. [2]
JOBY stock today: price, performance and volatility
As of the close on Friday, December 5, Joby Aviation shares last traded around $15.27, after a 3.1% pullback during the session. Trading volume came in just under 18 million shares, below the stock’s average daily volume of about 26–27 million, highlighting how quickly sentiment can swing in this high‑beta name. [3]
Key trading metrics: [4]
- Share price: roughly $15.2–$15.3
- 52‑week range: $4.96 – $20.95
- Market capitalization: about $13.9 billion
- Beta: ~2.5 (meaning the stock tends to move more than the broader market)
- 50‑day moving average: ≈ $15.7
- 200‑day moving average: ≈ $13.9
According to Simply Wall St, the stock has delivered a year‑to‑date return of about 88% and a three‑year total shareholder return above 330%, while trading at a price‑to‑book multiple of roughly 15.5×, far above the ~1.7× average for North American airlines and transport peers. [5]
That rich valuation is a core theme of current coverage: investors are paying a substantial premium today for earnings that are still many years away.
Fresh December 6 update: institutional money and valuation worries
The newest headline on December 6, 2025 comes from a MarketBeat report on institutional ownership. Sassicaia Capital Advisers LLC disclosed a new position in JOBY, buying 36,900 shares in Q2 for about $389,000, making Joby its 26th‑largest holding. [6]
More importantly, the same filing roundup shows Toyota Motor Corp dramatically increasing its stake by 63.1% to 128.45 million shares, worth roughly $1.36 billion, underscoring the continued commitment of a major strategic backer. Other large investors, including Geode Capital, Rheos Capital Works, ARK Invest and Nuveen, have also built or expanded positions, contributing to institutional ownership of about 52.9% of the float. [7]
Yet this institutional backing sits alongside heavy insider selling. Data compiled by Quiver Quant and MarketBeat indicates insiders have made more than 40 open‑market sales and zero purchases over the past six months, unloading around 1.15 million shares worth about $17.8 million in the last quarter alone. Company insiders still hold roughly 28.5% of outstanding stock. [8]
For valuation‑focused investors, Simply Wall St’s December 6 note frames the stock as “richly valued,” flagging that Joby is not expected to be profitable within the next three years and that the current 15× price‑to‑book multiple implies extremely optimistic expectations about future commercialization. [9]
Q3 2025 results: huge revenue jump, wider losses
Joby’s latest full quarterly update is its third quarter 2025 report, released on November 5. The headline numbers: [10]
- Q3 revenue: about $22.6 million, versus a fraction of that a year ago
- Year‑over‑year revenue growth: roughly 7,900% as the company begins recognizing more services and contract revenue
- Q3 EPS:–$0.48, missing consensus estimates of around –$0.19 per share
MarketBeat notes that analysts had expected almost no revenue for the quarter, so the top‑line beat was dramatic — but it came with a much larger net loss than the Street had modeled. [11]
Joby’s own shareholder letter highlights: [12]
- Over 600 test flights conducted in 2025 so far, plus thousands of ground tests
- The first point‑to‑point flight from Marina to Monterey in California, demonstrating integration into shared airspace
- Two weeks of scheduled flights at World Expo 2025 in Osaka, carrying demonstration passengers
- The Blade passenger operation (acquired earlier in the year) transporting ~40,000 passengers in the quarter, providing real‑world operational experience and a ready customer base
On the balance sheet, Joby ended Q3 with $978.1 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities. In October, it then completed a $576 million underwritten equity offering, significantly bolstering its cash runway but diluting existing shareholders. [13]
October share sale: $500M+ raise and a sharp pullback
The October capital raise is one of the most controversial recent events for JOBY stock.
According to aviation outlet AeroTime and subsequent market coverage, Joby launched a $500 million secondary share offering on October 7, with an option to sell an additional $75 million in stock. The new shares were priced at $16.85, around 11% below the prior close, and the stock dropped more than 11% in the days that followed as investors digested the dilution and timing. [14]
Management framed the deal as necessary to fund:
- The expensive final stages of FAA type certification
- Expansion of manufacturing capacity
- Preparations for commercial passenger operations in the U.S. and abroad
From a balance‑sheet perspective, combining near‑$1 billion in Q3 cash with the October proceeds gives Joby what could be several years of liquidity — but at the cost of more shares outstanding and heightened scrutiny of future capital needs.
Certification progress: entering the final phase with the FAA
From a fundamental standpoint, the most important recent milestone for Joby is its progress toward FAA type certification of its flagship all‑electric air taxi.
On November 5, Joby announced it had begun power‑on testing of the first FAA‑conforming aircraft built for Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) — a key component of the final stage of the FAA type certification process. [15]
Key details:
- The aircraft is built to Joby’s intended type design and to FAA‑approved engineering and airworthiness standards. [16]
- Power‑on testing allows Joby to run thousands of hardware and software integration tests before “for‑credit” flight tests. [17]
- Joby expects company pilots to begin flight testing in late 2025, followed by FAA test pilots in 2026, subject to regulatory approvals. [18]
In its Q3 highlights, Joby emphasized that it has already flown more than 600 test flights in 2025 and is working with the U.S. government under the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP), an initiative created by Executive Order to allow mature eVTOL designs to operate in real‑world missions before full certification. [19]
Taken together, these developments reinforce Joby’s position as one of the furthest‑advanced eVTOL developers in the U.S. certification queue — a point repeatedly emphasized by bullish analysts and by Goldman Sachs even as it issued a Sell rating on valuation grounds. [20]
International expansion: Dubai, Saudi Arabia, Ras Al Khaimah and Kazakhstan
Joby is also building a global footprint, especially in the Middle East:
- Dubai & Ras Al Khaimah (UAE): Joby has signed long‑term agreements with Dubai’s Road and Transport Authority and the Ras Al Khaimah Transport Authority, alongside vertiport specialist Skyports, to launch an air taxi network. The company is targeting initial commercial operations in Dubai in 2026 and Ras Al Khaimah by 2027, including multiple vertiports and daily demonstration flights. [21]
- Saudi Arabia: On November 19, Joby announced a memorandum of understanding with Red Sea Global and The Helicopter Company to conduct pre‑commercial evaluation flights in the Kingdom in the first half of 2026. This builds on an agreement with the General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) to help craft the country’s air taxi regulatory framework, using FAA standards as a base. [22]
- Kazakhstan: Joby has signed a letter of intent to sell aircraft and services worth up to $250 million to Alatau Advance Air Group to support future air taxi operations in Kazakhstan. [23]
StocksToTrade’s December 4 analysis frames these deals, along with high‑visibility flights at the Dubai Airshow and successful local demonstrations, as key drivers behind the stock’s recent surge and elevated media attention. [24]
Blade acquisition and L3Harris partnership: the “two‑deal” inflection point
A widely cited August analysis from MarketBeat argues that two strategic deals executed within 48 hours in early August 2025 effectively changed the growth trajectory of Joby Aviation: [25]
- Acquisition of Blade’s passenger business
- Joby agreed to acquire the passenger operations of Blade Air Mobility for up to $125 million.
- This gives Joby immediate access to vertiport terminals and lounges in key markets like New York City, plus a premium customer base that already flies short‑haul helicopter routes.
- Blade flew over 50,000 passengers in 2024; Joby can eventually swap in its quiet, electric aircraft once certified, significantly lowering customer‑acquisition friction. [26]
- Partnership with L3Harris Technologies for a hybrid‑electric military VTOL
- One day earlier, Joby announced a collaboration with L3Harris to develop a hybrid‑electric, autonomous VTOL aircraft for defense applications, based on Joby’s S4 platform and the autonomous tech gained from its 2024 acquisition of Xwing. [27]
- Flight tests for the defense variant are anticipated as early as fall 2025, opening a path to sizeable, government‑funded contracts. [28]
MarketBeat argues these moves transform Joby from a single‑market, single‑product story into a multi‑segment platform spanning urban passenger transport and defense, and notes that the stock rallied to all‑time highs above $17 shortly after the announcements, briefly exceeding the then‑consensus price target by a wide margin. [29]
Social media buzz, insider flows and hedge fund positioning
Quiver Quant’s December 1 sentiment roundup provides a useful snapshot of how JOBY is being discussed across social media and institutional circles: [30]
- Commercialization optimism: X (Twitter) discussions focus on piloted flights in Dubai and the potential for passenger operations as early as late 2025 or 2026, reflecting excitement about Joby as a real‑world transport option rather than a distant concept.
- Volatility concerns: Many posts highlight sharp swings in the stock, especially following the October share sale and recent analyst downgrades, including Goldman’s Sell rating.
- Partnership buzz: Users frequently mention Joby’s collaborations with L3Harris and NVIDIA (for its IGX Thor compute platform), seeing them as validation of Joby’s technology.
- Insider & hedge fund flows:
- Insiders have exclusively sold shares over the last six months (no open‑market buys).
- 289 institutional investors have added JOBY positions while 175 have reduced exposure, with large moves including UBER trimming its stake and UBS Group, Vanguard and Toyota increasing holdings.
Combined with today’s Sassicaia filing, the picture is one of strong institutional interest but cautious insider behavior, reinforcing the narrative of high expectations paired with significant execution risk. [31]
Analyst ratings and price targets: wide dispersion, cautious consensus
Across the Street, the message is clear: Joby is polarizing.
Data compiled by MarketBeat, Quiver Quant and StockAnalysis shows: [32]
- Overall rating: between “Reduce” and “Hold” on average
- Ratings mix (approximate):
- 1–2 Strong Buy/Buy ratings
- Several Hold/Neutral ratings
- 2–3 Sell or Strong Sell ratings
- Average / median price target: around $13–$13.5 per share, below the current price in the mid‑$15s
Recent headline calls include: [33]
- Goldman Sachs (Dec 1, 2025): initiates with Strong Sell / Sell and a $10 target, citing valuation and a long road to profitability.
- Needham (Nov 6): reiterates Strong Buy with a $22 target, betting that Joby’s first‑mover advantage and global partnerships will justify a premium.
- JPMorgan (Oct 31): Underweight, nudging its target from $7 to $8.
- Morgan Stanley (Oct 9): Hold, lifting its target from $7 to $15 as the stock rerated on major deals and certification milestones.
- Canaccord Genuity (Aug 7): downgrades from Strong Buy to Hold, but raises its target from $12 to $17 after the summer rally.
StockAnalysis’ forecast data, based on Finnhub consensus, indicates analysts expect: [34]
- Revenue to grow from roughly $34.5 million in 2025 to about $114.6 million in 2026 (over 230% growth).
- EPS to remain negative, with average forecasts worsening to about –1.1 in 2025, improving to roughly –0.8 in 2026, and profitability not expected before the late 2020s.
In other words, Wall Street largely agrees on strong top‑line growth, but disagrees sharply on what that growth is worth today.
Bull case for Joby Aviation stock
Supporters of JOBY stock point to several main arguments:
- First‑mover advantage in eVTOL certification
Joby is now in the final stage of FAA type certification, with power‑on testing of conforming aircraft underway and a clear roadmap toward TIA flight testing with FAA pilots. Few competitors are as far along. [35] - Global launch playbook is taking shape
Deals in Dubai, Ras Al Khaimah, Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan show that regulators and government‑linked partners are willing to align on infrastructure, vertiports and operating frameworks ahead of certification — a strong signal of demand from high‑income, tourism‑heavy markets. [36] - Dual‑track revenue: commercial + defense
The Blade acquisition de‑risks initial passenger operations by giving Joby an existing network of terminals, routes and premium customers, while the L3Harris partnership opens a separate, potentially large defense revenue stream funded by government contracts. [37] - Scale, tech stack and partners
Joby operates a vertically integrated model (design, manufacturing, operations) and is layering advanced autonomy and compute through its Superpilot system and NVIDIA IGX Thor platform. Strategic investors like Toyota, and tech/defense partners, lend credibility that is hard for smaller rivals to match. [38] - Explosive early revenue growth
Even off a tiny base, Q3’s ~8,000% year‑over‑year revenue growth, combined with forecast triple‑digit growth through 2026, supports the idea that Joby is transitioning from a pure R&D story toward a real business with customers and contracts. [39]
For long‑term growth investors, the appeal is clear: if Joby can execute, the addressable market in urban air mobility and defense‑related VTOL applications could be enormous.
Bear case and key risks
Skeptics, including some of the most prominent firms on Wall Street, highlight a different set of issues:
- Valuation far ahead of fundamentals
With a market cap near $14 billion, a negative P/E, a price‑to‑book around 15×, and price‑to‑sales metrics in the hundreds, bears argue that Joby is priced for near‑flawless execution and rapid market adoption, even though the company is still pre‑profit and pre‑mass‑commercialization. [40] - Long, uncertain path to profitability
Consensus forecasts show years of negative EPS ahead. Several analyses, including Goldman’s, suggest positive free cash flow may not arrive until the next decade, leaving Joby reliant on capital markets for funding and at risk of further dilution if conditions worsen. [41] - Execution and regulatory risk
Moving from prototype and demonstration flights to safe, reliable, scaled commercial service across multiple countries is a massive challenge. Any delays in certification, accidents during test operations, or setbacks in international regulatory frameworks could derail the thesis. [42] - Competition
Joby is not alone. Other eVTOL developers — including players focused on different market segments or propulsion approaches — are pursuing similar certifications and may partner with airlines, logistics firms or governments that compete with Joby’s ecosystem. - Insider selling and secondary offering signal
Bears also point to continuous insider selling and the discounted $500M+ share sale as signs that those closest to the company are taking risk off the table while the stock trades at rich levels. [43] - High stock volatility
Short‑term traders have been very active in JOBY, with the stock experiencing sharp intraday moves. StocksToTrade highlights swings from $13.47 to $15.76 within a matter of days in early December, reflecting a level of volatility that may not suit more conservative investors. [44]
What to watch next for JOBY stock
For investors and traders following Joby Aviation into 2026, the key upcoming catalysts and questions include:
- Timeline to “for‑credit” flight testing and type certification with the FAA — any update on when FAA test pilots will begin TIA flights will be closely watched. [45]
- Launch plans and pricing for initial commercial services in Dubai, Saudi Arabia and the U.S., including details on fleet size, route networks, ticket prices and economics per flight. [46]
- Defense contracts and milestones under the L3Harris partnership, including potential U.S. government awards or demonstration programs beyond the current hybrid‑electric prototype work. [47]
- Further capital raises or debt financing, given the scale of investment required to build factories, vertiports and a global operations platform. [48]
- Earnings updates for Q4 2025 and FY 2025, particularly whether revenue continues to ramp as analysts expect and whether losses narrow or widen. [49]
For now, JOBY remains a high‑risk, high‑reward stock sitting at the intersection of aviation, autonomy, clean transportation and defense. The latest data from December 6 shows institutional support and tangible operational progress — but also stretched valuation metrics, ongoing losses and a divided analyst community.
Important disclaimer
This article is for informational and news purposes only and is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in individual stocks, particularly speculative and pre‑profit names like Joby Aviation, involves significant risk, including the potential loss of your entire investment. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
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