Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock Outlook 2026: Talc Verdicts, Stelara Cliff and a 40% Rally

Published: December 8, 2025 – This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Key Takeaways

JNJ stock is trading around $202 per share as of December 8, 2025, near its 52‑week high of about $208 and up roughly 35% over the past year. ^[1]
Wall Street’s 12‑month analyst targets cluster just above today’s price (roughly $199–$203 on average), with a high estimate of $227 and a consensus “Moderate Buy” / “Buy” rating. ^[2]
Fundamentals remain solid: Q2 and Q3 2025 both beat expectations, and management has raised full‑year 2025 sales guidance to around $93–94 billion and EPS to about $10.80–$10.90. ^[3]
Major headwinds are real: the loss of U.S. patent exclusivity for blockbuster Stelara, thousands of talc lawsuits, MedTech pricing pressure in China, and an estimated 2025 tariff hit (now trimmed to about $200 million). ^[4]
Valuation debate is heating up: some models see J&J as deeply undervalued (one DCF fair‑value estimate is ~$384 per share, ~47% above the current price), while short‑term targets suggest only modest upside from here. ^[5]

JNJ Stock Today: Price, Performance and Dividend

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is trading around $202–203 per share in New York trading on December 8, 2025. Recent closing data show the stock finished at $202.48 on December 8 after a modest decline of 0.27%. ^[6]

Over the past year, JNJ has staged a strong recovery:

1‑year return: about +34.8%
5‑year return: roughly +32.5%
52‑week range: approximately $136.50 (low) to $207.81 (high) ^[7]

This rally has been strong enough that Simply Wall St describes 2025 as a “40.6% rally” year and still concludes the stock screens as undervalued on both discounted cash flow and P/E‑based metrics, with a fair‑value estimate near $384 per share and a current P/E around 19.4x, below its “fair” multiple estimate of 29.6x and beneath many large‑cap pharma peers. ^[8]

Dividend profile

J&J remains one of the market’s flagship dividend blue chips:

Quarterly dividend: $1.30 per share for Q4 2025
Payment date: December 9, 2025
Record / ex‑dividend date: November 25, 2025 ^[9]
Annualized dividend: $5.20 per share
Implied yield at ~$202: roughly 2.5–2.6%

With Street forecasts putting 2025 EPS near $10.9, the payout ratio is slightly under 50%, leaving room for continued annual increases if earnings hold up. ^[10]

Over the very long term, J&J has also delivered substantial total returns: a GOBankingRates analysis via Nasdaq notes that 10 shares bought in October 2015 at $97.15 would be worth $191.17 per share by October 2025 even before accounting for reinvested dividends, highlighting the stock’s compounding power. ^[11]

Today’s Headlines (December 8, 2025): Big Money Moves In and Out of JNJ

Fresh filings and analyst commentary on December 8, 2025 show how institutional investors and research desks are positioning around J&J after its big 2025 rally.

Heavy institutional activity

MarketBeat’s latest 13F coverage shows several notable Q2 moves in JNJ:

Ossiam sharply reduced its position, selling 506,439 shares and cutting its stake by about 79.4% to 131,580 shares (~$20.1 million). ^[12]
Natixis went the other way, boosting its holding by 944.3% to 635,153 shares, valued around $97 million. ^[13]
SVB Wealth LLC opened a new position of 33,224 shares (~$5.1 million). ^[14]
Bollard Group LLC increased its stake by 8% to 69,181 shares (about $10.6 million). ^[15]

Taken together, these filings reinforce that institutions own roughly 70% of JNJ’s float, and that while some are taking profits after the rally, others are building positions at current levels. ^[16]

Zacks: Can J&J offset 2026 headwinds?

A same‑day Zacks note titled “Can J&J Offset Stelara LOE, MedTech China and Legal Headwinds in 2026?” (linked via Yahoo/other feeds) frames the investment debate around three main overhangs: ^[17]

Stelara’s patent cliff and biosimilar erosion
MedTech China pricing and volume pressures
Ongoing talc litigation and related legal risk, plus tariff uncertainty

Zacks maintains J&J at a Rank #3 (Hold) but emphasizes its strong pipeline and raised 2025 guidance, while cautioning that 2026 will be a real test of how well the company can replace Stelara revenue and absorb legal and geographic headwinds. ^[18]

Earnings Momentum: 2025 Is a “Catalyst Year”

Q2 2025: Beat and guidance raise

In Q2 2025, J&J delivered:

Reported sales: $23.74 billion, up 5.8% year‑on‑year
GAAP EPS: $2.29, up 18.7%
Adjusted EPS: $2.77 (down slightly vs 2024 but ahead of consensus) ^[19]

Strong performance from oncology drug Darzalex and the MedTech division (MedTech sales up about 6.1% to $8.54 billion) was enough for management to raise full‑year 2025 sales guidance to roughly $93.2–$93.6 billion and boost adjusted EPS guidance to $10.80–$10.90. ^[20]

Critically, J&J also cut its expected 2025 tariff hit from $400 million to about $200 million, thanks to a pause in certain U.S. trade measures. ^[21]

Q3 2025: Another beat, more confidence

Q3 2025 results, released in October, continued the positive trend:

Sales: $23.99 billion, up 6.8% vs Q3 2024
GAAP EPS: $2.12 vs $1.11 a year earlier
Adjusted EPS: $2.80, up 15.7% year‑on‑year ^[22]

Segment performance:

Innovative Medicine: 6.8% reported growth, driven by Darzalex, Carvykti, Erleada, Rybrevant/Lazcluze, Tremfya and Spravato, partially offset by the Stelara decline. ^[23]
MedTech: 6.8% reported growth, supported by cardiovascular products (including Abiomed and Shockwave), wound closure in surgery, and Surgical Vision. ^[24]

Management nudged full‑year reported sales guidance up again to about $93.7 billion, implying roughly 5.7% growth, and reaffirmed adjusted EPS guidance around $10.85 at the midpoint. ^[25]

Pipeline and Recent Product News

Despite patent and pricing pressures, J&J’s pipeline keeps generating headlines:

CARVYKTI® (BCMA‑targeted CAR‑T therapy) – New data presented in late 2025 show “lasting treatment‑free remissions at 2.5 years” in certain multiple myeloma patients when used earlier in the treatment sequence, reinforcing its role as a key growth driver. ^[26]
INLEXZO™ (gemcitabine intravesical system) – A company release highlighted 74% disease‑free survival at one year in high‑risk, BCG‑unresponsive non‑muscle invasive bladder cancer (papillary‑only NMIBC), a tough‑to‑treat group. ^[27]
IMAAVY® (nipocalimab) – On December 1, 2025, J&J received European Commission approval for this FcRn‑blocking antibody for generalized myasthenia gravis, opening a new high‑value autoimmune indication in Europe. ^[28]

These launches and data readouts complement J&J’s strategy of focusing on six priority areas: oncology, immunology, neuroscience, cardiovascular, surgery and vision, where management believes it can drive durable mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit sales growth. ^[29]

The Big Headwinds: Talc, Stelara, MedTech China and Tariffs

1. Talc litigation: large numbers and high‑profile verdicts

Talc remains J&J’s most visible legal overhang:

Law‑firm trackers estimate over 67,000–90,000 talc lawsuits pending against J&J as of late 2025. ^[30]
A California jury awarded $966 million in October 2025 to the family of a woman who died from mesothelioma allegedly linked to Johnson’s Baby Powder – one of several large verdicts this year. ^[31]
Other 2025 verdicts include a $20 million award in Florida and a $42.6 million award in Boston, adding to billions already paid out over prior years. ^[32]
J&J’s attempt to resolve ovarian‑cancer cases via an $8 billion bankruptcy plan was rejected by a Houston judge earlier this year, forcing the company back into the regular tort system. ^[33]

Legal‑analysis sites note that J&J has settled around 95% of mesothelioma‑related talc cases, but thousands of ovarian‑cancer claims remain active. ^[34]

For investors, the key point is uncertainty: while J&J maintains it can manage these liabilities within its balance sheet, the timing, magnitude, and accounting treatment of future settlements or verdicts are hard to forecast, and they remain a persistent overhang on sentiment. ^[35]

2. Stelara loss of exclusivity (LOE)

Immune‑disease biologic Stelara (ustekinumab) has been one of J&J’s largest profit engines:

Stelara generated $10.36 billion in sales in 2024. ^[36]
J&J lost U.S. patent exclusivity in 2025, and several Stelara biosimilars launched this year. ^[37]
Various analyst notes estimate Stelara accounted for around 18% of the Innovative Medicine unit’s sales in 2024. ^[38]
Stelara sales fell roughly 34–39% in early 2025 as biosimilars rolled out, with Zacks and Webull highlighting that the drug’s erosion, combined with Part D changes, is significantly pressuring J&J’s 2025 and 2026 profit base. ^[39]

J&J describes 2025 as a “catalyst year” in which new products like Darzalex, Carvykti, Tremfya, Erleada and others are expected to offset Stelara’s slide over time, but the transition is unlikely to be smooth quarter‑to‑quarter. ^[40]

3. MedTech China: growth market with near‑term pressure

China is now J&J’s second‑largest market and a focal point for its MedTech expansion, with initiatives like a strategic collaboration with the Beijing Municipal Health Commission to expand access to advanced surgical and cardiovascular technologies. ^[41]

At the same time, Zacks’ equity research report notes that sales in J&J’s MedTech business are facing headwinds in Asia‑Pacific, especially China, as volume‑based procurement, local competition and pricing reforms weigh on margins and growth. ^[42]

Investors therefore need to balance:

Long‑term opportunity: a large, aging population and increasing healthcare spend
Short‑term risk: pricing pressure, policy uncertainty and geopolitical trade tensions

4. Tariffs and policy risk

J&J has been candid about tariff risk in 2025:

In Q1 2025, the company projected up to $400 million in tariff costs but still guided to mid‑single‑digit adjusted EPS growth. ^[43]
By Q2, thanks to a pause in certain Trump‑era tariffs, J&J cut its estimate to about $200 million for 2025 while raising its sales outlook. ^[44]

While the near‑term impact looks manageable relative to J&J’s ~$94 billion revenue base, tariffs and broader pricing reforms remain a structural risk for global healthcare companies.

Analyst Ratings, Price Targets and Forecasts

Consensus targets

Data compiled by StockAnalysis, Benzinga and MarketBeat show a fairly tight band of 12‑month price targets: ^[45]

Average / consensus target: around $199–$203 per share
High target:$227 (Guggenheim, “Strong Buy,” boosted from $206 on December 5, 2025)
Other recent moves:
- Barclays: Hold, target raised from $176 → $197 (Dec 2)
- Citigroup: Strong Buy, target $213 → $215 (Oct 15)
- Freedom Capital Markets: downgrade from Strong Buy to Hold with target $190 (Oct 22)

Overall, these numbers suggest modest expected upside or near‑fair value in the short term, given today’s price around $202.

Street forecasts for 2025–2026

According to aggregated analyst data via StockAnalysis: ^[46]

2025 revenue: ~$94.7 billion, up 6.6% year‑on‑year
2026 revenue: ~$99.7 billion, up 5.3%
2025 EPS: ~$10.97, nearly 90% growth vs 2024 (distorted by one‑off items)
2026 EPS: ~$11.65, up 6.1% vs 2025
Forward P/E: roughly 17–18x based on 2026 EPS estimates

This paints a picture of J&J as a mid‑single‑digit growth, large‑cap healthcare compounder: not hyper‑growth, but potentially resilient, especially if legal and pricing overhangs abate.

Alternative valuation view: deep undervaluation?

Simply Wall St’s DCF‑based analysis takes a more aggressive stance, estimating intrinsic value around $384 per share, implying JNJ is trading at roughly a 47% discount to fair value, and calling it “UNDERVALUED” on both discounted cash flow and P/E metrics. ^[47]

That model assumes:

Healthy continuation of revenue and earnings growth
No catastrophic legal or regulatory outcomes beyond what’s already modeled

Investors should recognize that DCF models are sensitive to assumptions on growth, margins and discount rates; they can paint a much more optimistic picture than near‑term Wall Street price targets if one assumes a smooth path through today’s headwinds.

Technical and Momentum Picture

Technical and momentum‑oriented services highlight JNJ’s recent price strength:

Zacks notes that JNJ is up about 17% over the last three months (as of late November) and has been a top‑ranked momentum stock, even though its Zacks Rank is #3 (Hold). ^[48]
Barchart points out that JNJ has been trading above both its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages for roughly two months, a classic bullish technical pattern. ^[49]

That said, momentum indicators are backward‑looking: they reflect how strong the rally has been, not whether the stock is cheap or expensive today.

Long‑Term Story vs. Risks: How to Think About JNJ Now

Putting it all together, Johnson & Johnson’s current investment profile looks like this:

Positives

Diversified business model across Innovative Medicine and MedTech, reducing reliance on any one drug or device. ^[50]
Consistent earnings power, with 2025 guidance and Street forecasts pointing to high‑single‑digit EPS levels and strong free‑cash‑flow generation. ^[51]
Robust pipeline and new launches (Carvykti, Inlexzo, IMAAVY and others) designed to offset Stelara’s decline and support growth in oncology, immunology, neuroscience and MedTech. ^[52]
Shareholder‑friendly capital return, with a long history of dividend growth and a current yield around 2.5–2.6%. ^[53]
Reasonable valuation by many measures, with a forward P/E in the high‑teens and some fundamental models arguing for substantial undervaluation. ^[54]

Key risks

Litigation overhang: tens of thousands of talc lawsuits, with large and high‑profile verdicts making it difficult to quantify ultimate exposure. ^[55]
Patent and pricing pressure: Stelara’s LOE, Medicare Part D redesign and global pricing reforms could weigh on margins for several years. ^[56]
Geopolitical and policy risk: tariffs, local‑content rules and procurement policies, especially in China and Europe, may affect MedTech growth and profitability. ^[57]
Execution risk: management must successfully ramp newer drugs and devices to fill the Stelara gap while navigating legal and policy uncertainties.

Because of these cross‑currents, many research firms frame JNJ not as a speculative high‑growth play but as a defensive, blue‑chip healthcare holding that may appeal to investors who prioritize stability, dividends and long time horizons—but who are also comfortable living with ongoing legal headlines and slower long‑term growth than some biotech high‑flyers. ^[58]

Anyone considering JNJ should carefully assess:

Their risk tolerance for large, long‑running legal issues
Their time horizon (J&J’s story is multi‑year, not quarter‑to‑quarter)
How a stable, dividend‑paying healthcare giant fits within their overall portfolio mix

Consulting a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision is strongly recommended.

Key Dates and What to Watch Next

Looking ahead:

Dividend payment date: December 9, 2025 (Q4 2025 dividend). ^[59]
Next earnings release: Based on historical patterns, Zacks currently estimates J&J will report its next quarterly results around January 28, 2026 (date subject to change when the company sets its official calendar). ^[60]
2026 focus points for investors:
- Speed of Stelara erosion vs. ramp of new products
- Any major talc settlements or appellate decisions
- Trajectory of MedTech China growth after current pricing headwinds
- Updated tariff and policy commentary from management

Staying on top of these catalysts will be essential for anyone following Johnson & Johnson stock into 2026.

References

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock Outlook 2026: Talc Verdicts, Stelara Cliff and a 40% Rally – What Investors Need to Know Now