JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) is trying to steady itself in Wednesday’s pre‑market session after a sharp sell‑off on Tuesday that wiped nearly 5% off the stock. The move came as investors digested a surprise jump in the bank’s 2026 expense guidance and a more cautious tone on the U.S. consumer—just hours before a closely watched Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.
Below is a breakdown of what’s moving JPM stock this morning, the latest forecasts and analysis published today (December 10, 2025), and what to watch once the opening bell rings.
JPM Stock Pre-Market Snapshot (December 10, 2025)
- Pre-market price (around 6:30 a.m. ET): about $300.79, up roughly $0.28 (+0.09%) from Tuesday’s close of $300.51, according to Public.com’s real-time indication. [1]
- Tuesday’s regular-session close (Dec 9):$300.51, down 4.7% from Monday’s close of $315.21. The stock traded between $300.02 and $318.80, marking its sharpest one-day drop since early April. [2]
- Market cap: roughly $800+ billion, with a 52‑week range of $202.16 – $322.25. [3]
- YTD performance: JPM shares remain up more than 28% in 2025, outpacing the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF), which is up about 11.4%. [4]
- Next major company catalyst: Q4 and full‑year 2025 earnings, currently expected on January 21, 2026. [5]
In other words, today’s pre‑market trade is a mild bounce after a violent re‑pricing of expectations yesterday, not a full‑blown reversal.
Note: Pre‑market quotes are indicative and can change quickly. Always check your trading platform for the latest price before acting.
What Hit JPMorgan Stock on Tuesday?
The $105 Billion Expense Shock
The main trigger for Tuesday’s sell‑off was new 2026 expense guidance unveiled by Marianne Lake, CEO of JPMorgan’s Consumer & Community Banking division, at the Goldman Sachs financial services conference in New York.
Key points from her remarks, as reported by Investing.com and summarized today by multiple outlets: [6]
- 2026 expenses are now expected to reach about $105 billion.
- That’s well above analyst expectations around $100 billion and even above the highest estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
- It’s roughly 9% higher than projected 2025 expenses, and notably higher than the $96 billion in expenses recorded year‑to‑date through Q3 2025.
- What’s driving the higher cost base?
- “Growth and volume” costs in cards and marketing—hiring, incentives, and acquisition spending in a fiercely competitive card market.
- Strategic investment in technology and AI, including infrastructure, software and talent.
- Real estate and inflation, including JPMorgan’s new flagship headquarters in New York and a planned London campus, plus structurally higher wage and operating costs.
- Consumer health: resilient but “more fragile.”
Lake said U.S. consumers still look resilient overall, but the environment is “a little bit more fragile” as pandemic-era savings are drawn down and lower‑income households feel more pressure. - Credit quality and cards:
JPMorgan now expects credit card charge‑offs of about 3.3% in 2025, with the rate potentially rising to around 3.6% in 2026 as the credit cycle normalizes. [7] - Business activity still solid:
Despite the caution on costs and consumers, Lake pointed to low‑single‑digit growth in Q4 investment banking fees and low‑teens growth in markets revenue year‑over‑year, along with a target of 10.5 million new credit card accounts in 2025. [8]
The market’s immediate reaction: JPMorgan became the biggest drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday, with its stock down about 4.6–4.8% by the close. [9]
A detailed analysis published today by INDmoney frames the move as the stock’s sharpest single‑day drop since early April, explicitly tying it to Lake’s comments about structurally higher costs and a more cautious consumer backdrop. [10]
How Much Is AI to Blame—or to Thank?
AI and Technology: Big Costs, Bigger Ambitions
One of the standout themes in today’s coverage is that AI is both a cost driver and a long‑term growth bet for JPMorgan.
A fresh piece from Stocktwits News this morning highlights: [11]
- JPM expects to spend about $18 billion on technology in 2025, up roughly $1 billion year‑on‑year.
- The bank has built an internal “LLM Suite” to tap large language models from leading AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, providing employees with AI tools for information retrieval, drafting, and analysis.
- The suite has scaled rapidly, going from zero to 200,000 onboarded users within eight months after a mid‑2024 roll‑out, according to company comments.
- AI is being embedded across the firm in:
- Process automation (e.g., document handling and AI voice tools),
- Employee assistance (from operations staff to bankers),
- Customer experience enhancements.
Lake described AI as a core enabler of productivity and growth, not just a cost item. In demonstrations earlier this year, JPM showed that its AI tooling can generate complex materials—like an investment banking deck—in seconds rather than hours. [12]
Analyst Take on the AI‑Driven Cost Spike
That same Stocktwits article captures emerging Wall Street reactions to the expense update: [13]
- TD Cowen’s Steven Alexopoulos sees the pullback as a chance to add exposure, calling JPM a “one‑of‑one” franchise whose elevated spending should ultimately support organic growth.
- Morgan Stanley cut its price target to $331 from $338, maintaining an Equal Weight rating and trimming 2026–2027 EPS estimates by 2–3% to reflect higher expenses.
- Consensus 2026 EPS forecasts now average around $21.31, rising to $22.95 in 2027, based on data compiled by Fiscal AI.
Interestingly, retail sentiment has swung sharply bullish: Stocktwits data shows message volume on JPM jumping roughly 600% in the past 24 hours, with retail sentiment labeled “extremely bullish” after yesterday’s slide. [14]
So while institutional models are marking down near‑term earnings on higher costs, many retail investors are treating the drop as a buying opportunity, betting that AI and tech investments will pay off over the medium term.
JPMorgan’s Broader Growth Story: Alternatives and Private Markets
The cost debate is unfolding against a backdrop of steady expansion in fee‑rich businesses like asset and wealth management and private markets.
On Tuesday, J.P. Morgan Asset Management released its 2026 Global Alternatives Outlook, which is getting some attention in today’s coverage because it underscores the firm’s ambitions in private markets and the AI‑driven economy. [15]
Highlights from the report and press release:
- The outlook maps 12–18 month opportunities across:
- Global real estate,
- Infrastructure,
- Transportation,
- Timberland,
- Hedge funds,
- Private equity,
- Private credit.
- Management argues that private markets are becoming a “structural mainstay” of global finance, particularly as:
- Global AI investment accelerates,
- Hyper‑globalization fades,
- Stock–bond correlations trend higher.
- J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
- Oversees about $600 billion in alternatives,
- And roughly $4 trillion in total assets under management.
- At the group level, JPMorgan Chase had $4.6 trillion in assets and $360 billion in stockholders’ equity as of September 30, 2025, underscoring its role as the largest U.S. bank by assets. [16]
For investors trying to reconcile Tuesday’s cost shock with the long‑term story, this alternatives push (plus AI and digital banking) is seen as part of the strategic justification for spending more today to defend and extend JPMorgan’s franchise.
Macro Backdrop: Fed Decision and Rate‑Cut Jitters
Tuesday’s JPM plunge didn’t happen in a vacuum. Markets are bracing for a Federal Reserve decision later today, widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut with “hawkish” guidance for 2026.
ChartMill’s market wrap, updated overnight, notes that: [17]
- The Dow Jones closed around ‑0.4%,
- The S&P 500 slipped roughly 0.1%,
- The Nasdaq Composite gained about 0.1%,
as investors largely sat on their hands “waiting for Powell.”
Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s cost guidance became a focal point for financials, serving as a kind of “yellow flag” on expense inflation across the banking sector, according to that same analysis. [18]
Zacks’ “Ahead of Wall Street” and Research Daily notes out this morning also stress that: [19]
- JPMorgan’s net interest income (NII) is still expected to grow at roughly a 3.3% CAGR through 2027, supported by loan demand and business expansion.
- But expenses are projected to rise even faster, about 4.4% annually over the same period.
- Loan‑loss provisions could climb around 10.5% in 2025 as the credit cycle normalizes, a reminder that asset quality remains a key risk.
Lower policy rates tend to pressure banks’ net interest margins, but they can also support capital markets activity, credit growth and asset prices—all crucial for a universal bank like JPMorgan. How Chair Powell frames the path of cuts for 2026 will be a big driver of where JPM trades into the close today.
Fresh Valuation Checks and Forecasts (as of December 10, 2025)
1. Fundamental and Analyst Views
INDmoney’s breakdown of yesterday’s move, updated today, includes a snapshot of Wall Street sentiment: [20]
- 31 analysts in its sample, with:
- ≈71% rating JPM a “Buy”,
- ≈29% rating it “Hold”,
- 0% “Sell” calls.
- The average 12‑month target price is about $327.91, implying ~9% upside from Tuesday’s close.
A separate MarketBeat note today, summarizing analyst actions following recent filings, paints a similar picture but with a slightly more cautious tilt: [21]
- Among brokers tracked there:
- 15 rate JPM as “Buy”,
- 9 as “Hold”,
- 3 as “Sell”.
- The average target price is $325.48, again implying mid‑single‑to‑high‑single‑digit upside from current levels.
- Overall, MarketBeat characterizes the stock’s consensus rating as “Hold.”
Meanwhile, the Zacks analyst report highlighted in Nasdaq’s blog this morning notes that JPMorgan shares are up about 32.1% over the past year, slightly lagging a 33.1% gain for the broader investment banking industry, and flags elevated costs and a tough macro backdrop as the main overhangs even as the bank’s core franchise remains strong. [22]
2. Intrinsic Value & P/E: Simply Wall St Perspective
A new valuation check from Simply Wall St, using Tuesday’s $300.51 close, estimates: [23]
- A “narrative fair value” of about $328.09 per share, suggesting JPM is ~8.4% undervalued on their intrinsic value model.
- However, they also note:
- JPM currently trades at roughly 14.4× earnings,
- vs. about 11.7× for the broader U.S. banks sector and 13.5× for peers.
So, in that framework, JPM looks modestly undervalued relative to their intrinsic model, but clearly trades at a premium multiple to the average bank, leaving “less margin for error if growth underwhelms.”
3. Short-Term Technical Forecasts
On the technical side, StockInvest.us updated its JPM analysis after Tuesday’s drop and downgraded the stock from “Hold” to a short‑term “Sell candidate.” [24]
Their model notes:
- The stock fell 4.68% on Tuesday, from $315.21 to $300.47, on higher‑than‑usual volume (~15 million shares).
- JPM is moving within a horizontal trading range, and with 90% probability, they expect it to trade between $291.55 and $318.13 over the next three months.
- For today (Wednesday, Dec 10), they project:
- A fair opening price around $306.43,
- An intraday range of roughly $296.99 – $303.95 based on recent volatility.
- Their system sees stronger resistance near $302.08 and support building around $298.54.
StockInvest’s conclusion: short‑term risk has risen after the high‑volume drop, and near‑term performance could remain weak until a clearer bottom “pivot” forms.
These technical forecasts are, of course, model‑driven and not guarantees—but they help explain why some short‑term traders remain cautious even as long‑term investors debate whether Tuesday’s sell‑off was overdone.
What JPMorgan’s Own Numbers Say
Today’s commentaries frequently reference JPMorgan’s Q3 2025 results, which underline that the bank is starting this cost debate from a position of strength. According to the Q3 earnings snapshot cited by INDmoney: [25]
- Revenue: about $47.1 billion in Q3 2025, up 8.8% year‑over‑year.
- Net income: around $14.4 billion.
- EPS:$5.07, ahead of consensus estimates (~$4.83).
- Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE): near 20%, a level few large peers can match.
- CET1 capital ratio: roughly 14.8%, well above regulatory minimums.
These metrics help explain why analysts and long‑term holders have been willing to accept above‑average spending on growth initiatives and technology—up to a point. Tuesday’s move suggests the market is now re‑drawing that line and demanding clearer visibility on when elevated expenses translate into incremental earnings.
Key Things for JPM Investors to Watch Today
As the regular session approaches, here are the pressure points traders and investors are watching based on today’s pre‑market commentary:
- Fed Decision & Forward Guidance
- A 25 bp cut is largely priced in. The bigger swing factor for JPM will be:
- How many cuts the Fed signals for 2026, and
- Whether Chair Powell emphasizes inflation risks (hawkish) or growth risks (dovish). [26]
- A 25 bp cut is largely priced in. The bigger swing factor for JPM will be:
- Treasury Yields and the Yield Curve
- A sharp drop in long‑term yields could pressure future NII but support valuations for fee businesses and alternatives.
- A steeper yield curve (long rates not falling as much as short rates) would generally be good for banks.
- Follow‑through in Bank Peers (C, BAC, GS, etc.)
- Lake’s comments already weighed on Citigroup and Bank of America on Tuesday. Continued weakness in peers would signal that investors see JPM’s cost issues as sector‑wide, not just idiosyncratic. [27]
- Price Action Around $298–$302
- Short‑term technicians are focused on the $298–302 zone highlighted by StockInvest as key support and resistance. A decisive move above or below that area could shape intraday momentum. [28]
- Any New Management Color or Sell‑Side Moves
- Additional analyst target cuts or upgrades following Tuesday’s conference—and any new commentary from JPMorgan executives in media interviews—could further influence the narrative around “investment vs. bloated costs.” [29]
Bottom Line: A Modest Pre-Market Rebound After a Reality Check
Going into the December 10, 2025 open, JPMorgan’s stock is slightly green in pre‑market trading, but the story is less about today’s small bounce and more about what Tuesday’s sell‑off revealed:
- The market is re‑pricing JPM’s cost of growth, especially around AI, technology, and physical footprint.
- Short‑term technical models now lean cautious, flagging the risk of further near‑term weakness. [30]
- Fundamental and valuation‑driven analyses published today still see medium‑term upside—with intrinsic value estimates and average analyst targets clustering in the mid‑$320s to high‑$320s, modestly above current levels. [31]
- Strategically, JPMorgan is doubling down on AI, technology and private markets, areas that many investors believe justify a premium multiple if executed well. [32]
Whether today marks the start of a constructive consolidation or just a pause before another leg lower will likely depend on two things:
- How hawkish or dovish the Fed sounds tonight, and
- How convincingly management continues to explain that $105 billion expense line as an investment, not just overhead.
For now, JPM remains a high‑quality, high‑expectation bank: the pre‑market recovery shows that plenty of investors are willing to look past a single “cost shock”—but they’ll want evidence, quarter by quarter, that those extra billions are buying durable earnings power.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
1. public.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockinvest.us, 4. stocktwits.com, 5. stockinvest.us, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.indmoney.com, 11. stocktwits.com, 12. stocktwits.com, 13. stocktwits.com, 14. stocktwits.com, 15. www.prnewswire.com, 16. www.prnewswire.com, 17. www.chartmill.com, 18. www.chartmill.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.indmoney.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. simplywall.st, 24. stockinvest.us, 25. www.indmoney.com, 26. www.chartmill.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. stockinvest.us, 29. stocktwits.com, 30. stockinvest.us, 31. simplywall.st, 32. stocktwits.com
