As Wall Street closes out a volatile Fed day, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is back in focus.
On Wednesday, December 10, 2025, JPMorgan stock closed at about $310.11, up roughly 3.2% on the day, recovering part of Tuesday’s steep sell‑off that followed a surprise warning on 2026 expenses. [1]
In after‑hours trading, the stock was essentially flat, hovering near $310, with small moves of about –0.01% to –0.03% as of just before 5 p.m. ET. [2]
Against the backdrop of a Federal Reserve rate cut and fresh company headlines about higher future costs, a $1,000 award for lower‑paid staff, and a major new hire from Berkshire Hathaway, investors have plenty to digest before the opening bell on Thursday, December 11, 2025. [3]
Below is a detailed breakdown of where JPM stock stands after the bell and what traders and investors should know heading into tomorrow’s session.
1. JPMorgan Stock Price Action After the Bell on December 10, 2025
- Closing price (Dec 10, 2025): ~$310.11
- Daily move: +$9.60, or +3.19% versus Tuesday’s close of $300.51 [4]
- Day’s range: roughly $298.5 to $311.2 [5]
- After‑hours price: around $310.08–$310.02, down only a few cents (≈0.01–0.03%) [6]
- 52‑week range: about $202.16 (low) to $322.25 (high), putting JPM now less than 4% below its record high. [7]
That 3.2% rebound follows a 4.7% decline on Tuesday, when JPMorgan suffered its biggest one‑day drop in about eight months after executives projected sharply higher expenses for 2026. [8]
Even after today’s bounce, the stock still trades a little over 1.5% below Monday’s close, so investors have only partially shrugged off the cost concerns.
From a liquidity standpoint, trading in JPM was heavy: one data provider shows volume above 16–18 million shares, above its typical daily average near 17 million shares. [9]
2. From 4.7% Sell‑Off to 3.2% Rebound: What Changed?
The shock: JPMorgan’s 2026 expense guidance
On Tuesday, December 9, JPMorgan’s consumer and community banking chief Marianne Lake told investors at the Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference that the bank expects total expenses of around $105 billion in 2026. [10]
Key points from management and subsequent coverage:
- The $105 billion estimate for 2026 is:
- Lake said the increase is driven largely by “growth‑related” and “volume‑related” costs and strategic investments, including:
- Artificial intelligence (AI) and technology
- Higher performance‑based compensation for advisers
- More marketing
- Credit‑card growth and product enhancements
- Continued branch expansion across the U.S. [13]
- Inflation, including real estate and wage pressures, is also adding to costs, though management framed the bulk of spending as “high‑quality” investment. [14]
The market didn’t love it. JPMorgan’s shares fell about 4.3%–4.7% on Tuesday, making it the worst performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and dragging the index lower. [15]
The tailwind: Fed cuts rates and stocks rally
What changed on Wednesday?
- The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, to a range of 3.5%–3.75%, its third cut of 2025, and signaled that another rate hike is unlikely in the near term. [16]
- Major U.S. indexes rallied:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.1%
- S&P 500: +0.7%, finishing just shy of a new all‑time closing high
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.3% [17]
Within that rally, JPMorgan shares “rebounded 3.2%” after the previous day’s slump, according to live market coverage from Investopedia. [18]
In other words: the macro backdrop turned supportive—lower policy rates, higher equity prices, slightly softer Treasury yields—giving bank stocks, including JPM, room to recover. But the structural concern about costs is still hanging in the air, which is why Wednesday’s move looks more like a partial relief rally than a full‑blown reversal.
3. New JPMorgan Headlines Tonight: Combs Hire and $1,000 Staff Award
Beyond the ticker flicker, two fresh corporate stories hit the tape on December 10 that could shape sentiment into tomorrow’s open.
3.1 National‑security investment push led by Todd Combs
Reuters reports that JPMorgan has made its “most senior external hire yet” by bringing in Todd Combs, a longtime deputy to Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway, to lead a major national security–focused investment initiative. [19]
Key details:
- Combs will head a team investing more than $10 billion of JPMorgan’s own capital in companies deemed strategic for U.S. national security, as part of a broader $1.5 trillion, 10‑year plan to finance and invest in critical industries. [20]
- Target areas include:
- Technology and cybersecurity
- Defense and aerospace
- Rare earths and critical minerals
- Robotics and advanced manufacturing
- Pharmaceuticals and key medicines [21]
- The initiative focuses on smaller and mid‑sized companies, not mega‑acquisitions, positioning JPMorgan as both lender and direct equity investor in strategically important supply chains. [22]
- The bank has already made moves under this umbrella, including an investment in Perpetua Resources, which raised $255 million to boost U.S. rare‑earth magnet capacity. [23]
Analysts quoted by Reuters note that Combs brings a “very impressive long‑term investment track record”, effectively importing a Buffett‑style capital allocation skillset into JPMorgan’s strategic investing arm. [24]
Why it matters for the stock:
This initiative is both a growth story (billions deployed into higher‑return, higher‑profile sectors) and another potential explanation for rising expenses. The market may spend the next few sessions deciding whether this is prudent long‑term capital deployment or additional risk and cost layered onto an already expensive growth plan.
3.2 Up to $1,000 for staff earning under $80,000
In a separate memo, CEO Jamie Dimon told employees that JPMorgan will grant a special award of up to $1,000 to staff who earn less than $80,000 a year and have at least one year of service as of December 31, 2025. [25]
- U.S. staff will receive the payment as a 401(k) contribution.
- International employees will receive it in cash. [26]
- Barron’s notes this kind of year‑end award has been an annual tradition for over a decade, coming as the stock has climbed roughly 27% over the past year, outpacing the broader S&P 500. [27]
Investor lens: The award is small relative to a $100+ billion expense base, but it fits into the broader narrative: JPMorgan is willing to spend to keep talent and morale high, even while investors are increasingly sensitive to the overall cost trajectory.
4. What Wall Street Analysts Are Saying About JPMorgan Now
Despite the recent volatility, analyst sentiment on JPMorgan remains broadly constructive, with cost growth flagged as the main risk.
Consensus ratings and price targets
- TipRanks data show that 17 Wall Street analysts currently rate JPMorgan stock a “Moderate Buy”, with:
- 11 Buy ratings
- 6 Hold ratings
- 0 Sell ratings in the latest three‑month window [28]
- The average 12‑month price target sits around $344.31, implying roughly 14% upside from recent levels near $302–$310 per share. [29]
- According to a breakdown cited by TradingView, the spectrum of published targets runs from about $250 on the low end to $370 at the high end. [30]
Morgan Stanley’s view
A note highlighted by FinancialModelingPrep points out that Morgan Stanley recently set a $331 price target on JPMorgan, implying about 10% upside from a reference price near $300.47, even after the expense‑driven sell‑off. [31]
Morgan Stanley’s optimism comes despite acknowledging:
- The 2026 expense forecast of $105 billion, more than 4% above street expectations
- The nearly 5% one‑day drop in JPM stock when that forecast was first aired [32]
Valuation check: Slight premium, but not extreme
A December 10 analysis from Simply Wall St argues that: [33]
- JPMorgan’s fair value is around $328 per share, suggesting the stock is roughly 8% undervalued versus the recent price near $300–$310.
- However, JPMorgan trades at about 14.4× earnings, compared with 11.7× for the broader U.S. banks sector and 13.5× for peers, implying a valuation premium that depends on continued strong execution.
In other words, the market still pays up for JPM’s scale, profitability and balance‑sheet strength, but that premium leaves less room for missteps if expense growth isn’t matched by durable revenue and earnings growth.
5. Fundamentals Heading into 2026: Earnings, Growth and Costs
Earnings momentum
According to MarketBeat and other earnings trackers: [34]
- In Q3 2025, JPMorgan reported:
- Earnings per share (EPS): $5.07
- Consensus estimate: $4.83
- Revenue: $47.12 billion, up 8.8% year‑on‑year, and ahead of expectations around $44.4 billion
- Trailing 12‑month EPS is around $20–$20.2, implying a price/earnings ratio in the mid‑teens at current prices.
- Analysts expect EPS growth of roughly 7% next year, from about $18.10 to $19.42 per share on some estimates, even factoring in higher costs. [35]
Performance-wise, JPMorgan’s stock is up roughly 27% over the last 12 months, far outpacing many peers and the S&P 500. [36]
Cost trajectory: The crux of the debate
The core question for investors heading into 2026 is whether the bank’s higher expense base will be:
- A drag on profitability if growth slows, or
- A smart reinvestment that extends JPMorgan’s lead in areas like AI, payments, cards, and national‑security‑linked finance.
The numbers on the table: [37]
- 2025 planned expenses: ≈ $95.9 billion
- 2026 projected expenses: ≈ $105 billion
- ~9–10% increase year‑over‑year
- 3.6–4% above the ~$101 billion Wall Street expected
Where the money is going:
- AI and technology build‑out
- Advisor compensation and incentives
- Credit‑card growth and marketing
- Branch network expansion (about 1,000 new branches built in the past seven years, with more to come) [38]
- Plus the new national‑security investment push under Todd Combs discussed above [39]
If these investments produce sustainably higher revenue and returns on tangible common equity (ROTCE), the Street may ultimately see today’s spending as a value‑creating strategy. If not, investors may continue to push back on the multiple.
Next major catalyst: Q4 earnings in January
Several calendar providers and Wall Street Horizon indicate that JPMorgan’s next earnings report for Q4 2025 is scheduled for Tuesday, January 13, 2026, before the market opens (some data services still show alternative dates like January 21, but Jan 13 is currently listed as “confirmed” by specialized event trackers). [40]
That Q4 report will be the first full opportunity for management to:
- Reaffirm (or adjust) their 2026 expense guidance
- Update investors on the national security initiative, AI investments and consumer health
- Provide a formal outlook for 2026 revenues and profitability
Traders into December 11 will already be thinking about how today’s news sets the stage for that event.
6. What to Watch Before the December 11, 2025 Opening Bell
Here’s a practical checklist for anyone following JPM stock into tomorrow’s session. This is not financial advice, just a structured way to think about the setup.
6.1 Price levels and short‑term sentiment
- $300 zone:
Tuesday’s close near $300.51 and the round‑number level at $300 may act as a near‑term support area. A decisive break below could signal that traders are still unwinding positions after the expense shock. [41] - $315–$322 band:
Monday’s close around $315 and the 52‑week high near $322 mark an overhead resistance zone. Bulls will watch whether the stock can grind back toward those levels if market conditions remain favorable. [42]
6.2 Macro follow‑through after the Fed cut
- The Fed just delivered its third rate cut of the year, and Chair Powell downplayed the likelihood of raising rates again soon. [43]
- Tomorrow’s price action in:
- Long‑term Treasury yields
- The yield curve
- The U.S. dollar index
6.3 Reaction to the Todd Combs hire and national‑security initiative
- Expect more commentary from:
- Bank analysts (e.g., Morningstar, sell‑side banks)
- Macro and defense‑industry watchers
Any bullish framing—especially tying these deals to government‑backed programs or long‑term contracts—could support the stock. Skepticism about returns, governance or political risk could weigh.
6.4 Ongoing debate about expenses and “quality of spend”
- Commentaries from the Financial Times, Barron’s, and others have already framed the higher expenses as a potential template that other big banks may be forced to follow to remain competitive, especially on AI and technology. [45]
- Watch for:
- More sell‑side notes revising expense and EPS forecasts
- Any management clarification (interviews, conference Q&A recaps, or investor‑relations posts) that further explains how much of the $105 billion in 2026 spending is truly discretionary growth investment vs unavoidable inflation and regulatory cost. [46]
If analysts broadly conclude that a large share of the incremental spend is high‑return, some of Tuesday’s valuation compression could reverse.
6.5 Sector and index context
- JPMorgan is a pillar of the Dow and S&P 500 financials sector. After Tuesday’s drop, its Wednesday rebound contributed to the broader market’s push toward record highs. [47]
- Before the open tomorrow, many traders will:
- Watch S&P financials futures for direction
- Compare JPM’s pre‑market move with Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley
That relative strength/weakness can hint at whether Tuesday’s news is becoming a JPM‑specific story or a sector‑wide re‑rating of bank expense trajectories.
7. Bottom Line: JPMorgan Stock Heading into December 11
Summing it all up:
- Price: JPMorgan closed around $310, up ~3.2% on Wednesday and flat after hours, but still shy of recent highs. [48]
- Macro: A Fed rate cut and solid index gains provided a supportive backdrop for banks. [49]
- Company‑specific news:
- Street view: Most analysts still rate the stock a Buy or Moderate Buy, with double‑digit percentage upside implied by consensus targets in the low‑ to mid‑$300s, but they increasingly flag cost discipline as the critical swing factor for valuation. [52]
For investors watching the tape before tomorrow’s bell, JPMorgan looks like a high‑quality bank at a modest valuation premium, caught between:
- Bullish forces: Fed easing, strong earnings power, national‑security tailwinds, and a history of outperformance
- Bearish worries: A structurally higher cost base and the risk that growth investments may not fully pay off if the economy proves “a little more fragile,” as Marianne Lake cautioned.
References
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