Updated: Friday, December 12, 2025 (after U.S. market close)
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) ended a volatile week on a firmer note, recovering sharply after a one-day selloff that reminded investors of a simple truth about mega-bank stocks: earnings power matters—but so does spending discipline.
Shares closed Friday at $318.52, up 0.36% on the day and roughly +1.05% for the week (from Monday’s close). [1] But the calm at week’s end masks the drama in the middle: JPM dropped nearly 5% on Tuesday after management flagged a higher-than-expected 2026 expense outlook, then rebounded over the next three sessions as investors refocused on rate policy, capital markets momentum, and the bank’s dominant competitive position. [2]
Below is a detailed recap of the latest JPMorgan stock news, what drove the move this week, and the key catalysts in the week ahead that could shape JPM stock’s next leg.
JPM stock price action this week: a sharp dip, then a near-complete recovery
JPMorgan’s week can be summarized in two phases: (1) expense shock, then (2) rebound on macro + sentiment.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) closes this week:
- Mon, Dec 8: $315.21
- Tue, Dec 9: $300.51 (-4.66%)
- Wed, Dec 10: $310.11 (+3.19%)
- Thu, Dec 11: $317.38 (+2.34%)
- Fri, Dec 12: $318.52 (+0.36%) [3]
That puts JPM up about $3.31 week-over-week, despite Tuesday’s air pocket. [4]
Why it matters for investors: the tape shows JPM still has strong dip-buying support—but the market is also willing to punish the stock quickly when cost growth threatens to outpace revenue growth.
The big catalyst: JPMorgan’s 2026 expense outlook jolts the market
The week’s defining headline came from comments by Marianne Lake, CEO of JPMorgan’s Consumer & Community Banking business, speaking at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference.
Key takeaway: JPMorgan expects about $105 billion of expenses in 2026, above analysts’ average expectations of about $100.84 billion, according to Reuters. [5]
Lake emphasized that the increase is driven primarily by growth and volume-related costs plus strategic investments, especially in the consumer bank. [6] The Financial Times and Barron’s reported that spending priorities include investments tied to AI, marketing, credit card growth, branch expansion, and advisor compensation, with some inflation-related pressure also in the mix. [7]
Why the market sold first—and then reconsidered
A $105B expense run-rate isn’t automatically “bad” if revenue and operating leverage keep pace. The problem for JPM stock in the moment was expectations: when investors hear “costs up,” they immediately model pressure on near-term efficiency and incremental margins—especially in a world where the Federal Reserve is cutting rates (which can weigh on net interest income for lenders).
But JPM’s quick rebound suggests the market ultimately framed the message this way: JPM is choosing to invest from a position of strength—and investors believe it can earn attractive returns on that spend over time.
Q4 revenue tone: investment banking and markets seen improving
Alongside the cost outlook, JPM also offered a read on near-term business momentum.
Reuters reported JPM expects:
- Investment banking revenue to rise low-single-digit percent in Q4
- Markets revenue to rise low-teens percent in Q4 [8]
That matters because it reinforces the narrative that Wall Street activity is healthier than it was earlier in the cycle—helpful for a bank with a large, diversified investment banking and trading platform.
The Wall Street Journal similarly highlighted that big banks are tracking toward one of their strongest years in recent memory, supported by trading and investment banking strength—context that has helped underpin broader financial-sector sentiment into year-end. [9]
JPMorgan dividend update: $1.50 per share, payable Jan. 31, 2026
In a separate shareholder-friendly headline, JPMorgan’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $1.50 per share.
According to the company’s Investor Relations release:
- Dividend: $1.50 per share
- Payable date:January 31, 2026
- Record date:January 6, 2026 [10]
For income-focused investors, the dividend anchors part of the total return story—particularly when the stock experiences short-term volatility around guidance headlines.
Blockchain headline: J.P. Morgan arranges $50M on-chain commercial paper on Solana
JPM also made waves in digital finance this week.
Reuters reported that J.P. Morgan arranged a $50 million U.S. commercial paper issuance for Galaxy Digital on the Solana blockchain, with Coinbase and Franklin Templeton purchasing the instrument. The transaction used USDC for settlement and was described by J.P. Morgan as a milestone connecting traditional securities issuance with public blockchain rails. [11]
Why this matters to JPM stock (even if it doesn’t move the next quarter’s EPS):
- It signals that JPM continues to push into tokenization and next-gen settlement workflows—areas investors increasingly view as strategic for large, scaled financial institutions.
- It reinforces JPM’s role as a “plumbing” leader in capital markets infrastructure, where even incremental wins can compound over time.
Altice controversy: investors scrutinize JPMorgan’s role in a contentious refinancing
Not all headlines were purely positive.
The Financial Times reported that JPMorgan is facing pushback from some investors over its role as administrative agent in a controversial $2 billion refinancing tied to Altice USA, describing anger among distressed-debt and credit investors over deal mechanics and perceived market precedent. [12]
Why it matters for shareholders: this is less about immediate earnings and more about reputational and relationship risk in parts of leveraged finance and private credit—an area where trust and repeat business are major assets. It’s unlikely to be a core driver of JPM’s next week of trading by itself, but it can color sentiment when combined with other headlines.
Compensation headline: JPMorgan to provide up to $1,000 for many lower-paid employees
Another notable development: Barron’s reported JPMorgan will provide a payment of up to $1,000 to employees earning under $80,000, primarily as a 401(k) plan contribution for eligible U.S. workers (cash for some non-U.S. employees), with payments scheduled for late January 2026. [13]
This story intersects with the week’s broader “cost” narrative. On its own, it’s not likely to change the long-term investment case—but it highlights how wage, benefits, and retention dynamics remain part of the expense backdrop investors are watching closely.
Macro backdrop: the Fed cut rates—and investors are recalibrating the path ahead
This week’s bank-stock tape also reflected a major macro event: the Federal Reserve’s December decision.
On Dec. 10, 2025, the Fed cut the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%. [14] The decision was notable for dissent:
- Stephen Miran preferred a larger 50 bp cut
- Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid preferred no change [15]
Reuters added that some dissenters cited persistent inflation risk and the difficulty of policymaking amid missing or delayed data tied to the recent shutdown-related reporting disruption. [16]
Why Fed cuts can be a mixed signal for JPM stock
Rate cuts can:
- Support credit demand and reduce recession fears (positive)
- But also pressure net interest income (NII) if deposit pricing and asset yields reprice in unfavorable ways (potentially negative)
For JPM specifically, the market often weighs whether strength in fees, trading, and investment banking can offset any NII headwinds—one reason the bank’s Q4 “markets up low-teens” tone mattered this week. [17]
Broader market context: tech drag, but financials held up
Friday’s session also underscored sector rotation dynamics.
The broader market sold off from record levels, led by tech weakness, with the S&P 500 down 1.1% and the Nasdaq down 1.7% on Dec. 12. [18] Yet financials showed relative resilience—JPM finished green on the day even as risk appetite cooled elsewhere. [19]
Week ahead: what could move JPMorgan (JPM) stock next week
With JPM earnings still about a month away, next week’s trading setup is likely to be driven more by rates, economic data, and sector sentiment than by company-specific catalysts—unless unexpected headlines hit.
1) A heavy slate of delayed U.S. economic data
Reuters’ “week ahead” preview highlights that investors are eager for delayed data releases to clarify the U.S. growth picture. [20] S&P Global Market Intelligence’s preview points to a week featuring key U.S. releases including a delayed employment report and CPI, alongside retail sales data. [21]
Why JPM investors should care: these reports can move Treasury yields and the yield curve—direct inputs into bank valuation math (NII expectations, credit risk, and risk appetite).
2) Rate-path uncertainty after a split Fed vote
The fact that the Fed decision drew dissent in both directions makes next week’s data even more consequential for rate expectations. [22]
3) Bank-sector momentum and regulatory sentiment
Large banks have been strong performers into year-end, helped by a mix of rate trends and changing expectations for the policy environment. Barron’s noted the backdrop of a more favorable political climate for banks and highlighted broader bank-stock strength (e.g., Bank of America making a record high). [23] Bloomberg also flagged that major bank stocks have been tracking a multi-week winning streak, though JPM was singled out as an exception during the expense-related pullback. [24]
JPM stock forecast: what Wall Street price targets imply right now
Consensus targets vary by provider, but the overall message is consistent: analysts see modest upside, with the caveat that cost guidance can pressure near-term sentiment.
TipRanks reports:
- Average 12-month JPM price target: about $336.07
- High:$370
- Low:$250
- Based on recent coverage counts over the last three months [25]
Relative to Friday’s close ($318.52), the average target implies roughly mid-single-digit upside (about 5%–6%, depending on the reference price). [26]
A notable example of how the expense narrative is feeding into target tweaks: TheFly/TipRanks reported Morgan Stanley lowered its JPM price target to $331 from $338 on Dec. 9. [27]
Key levels and near-term setup for JPM shares
From this week’s trading range:
- JPM’s Tuesday close ($300.51) marked a major “line in the sand” after the expense headline. [28]
- The rebound brought shares back toward the $318–$320 zone by week’s end. [29]
For short-term traders and longer-term investors alike, the immediate question is whether JPM can hold above the post-selloff rebound level if next week’s data pushes yields meaningfully higher or lower.
Bottom line: JPMorgan stock heads into next week with momentum—but costs are the headline risk
JPMorgan Chase stock (JPM) enters the week ahead with a constructive finish, having recovered sharply from an expense-driven drop. [30] The near-term narrative is now a balancing act:
- Bull case: resilient capital markets revenue tone + leadership scale + shareholder returns (dividend) + strategic investments that widen the moat over time [31]
- Bear case: expense growth above expectations, plus a rate-cut environment that can complicate NII and reopens debates about operating leverage [32]
- Wildcard: macro data volatility next week, given delayed reports and an unusually split Fed vote [33]
Next major company-specific checkpoint: JPMorgan’s Q4 2025 earnings on January 13, 2026, per the company’s Investor Relations schedule. [34]
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.ft.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.wsj.com, 10. www.jpmorganchase.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.ft.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.federalreserve.gov, 15. www.federalreserve.gov, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. apnews.com, 19. www.nyse.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.spglobal.com, 22. www.federalreserve.gov, 23. www.barrons.com, 24. www.bloomberg.com, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. stockanalysis.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.spglobal.com, 34. www.jpmorganchase.com
