New York — Friday, December 26, 2025 (2:17 p.m. ET).
Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) is trading in the upper-$170s in a quiet, post-Christmas U.S. session—holding near recent highs as investors continue to price in an AI-driven semiconductor capex upswing that could extend into 2026 and beyond. Around mid-afternoon in New York, LRCX was about $178.70, up modestly on the day, with an intraday range roughly $177.44–$179.77.
The tone across Wall Street fits the calendar: thin liquidity, limited scheduled economic data, and a market hovering close to records as the year winds down. Reuters described equities as trading near peaks in muted post-holiday action, while also flagging that light volume can exaggerate moves—an important backdrop for a momentum name like Lam. [1]
LRCX stock price action in today’s market
As of the latest available mid-session quotes:
- Lam Research (LRCX): ~$178.70
- Semiconductor ETF (SOXX): ~$306.80 (slightly higher on the day)
- S&P 500 proxy (SPY): ~$690.16 (fractionally lower)
- Nasdaq 100 proxy (QQQ): ~$624.40 (fractionally higher)
Lam is also being watched alongside its closest U.S. wafer-fab equipment peers. Midday quotes show KLA (KLAC) and Applied Materials (AMAT) modestly higher, while Micron (MU)—often viewed as a “read-through” to memory spending—was slightly lower after a very strong run.
Barron’s characterized the day as “thin post-holiday trading” with Lam among notable movers, as the stock continues to flirt with record territory after a powerful 2025 rally. [2]
Why Lam Research stock remains in focus: the AI + memory capex narrative
Lam’s core business—etch, deposition, and related tools used in high-volume semiconductor manufacturing—tends to be cyclical. What’s different in the current cycle is the degree to which AI infrastructure demand is pulling on the entire supply chain, from leading-edge logic to memory.
A key 2025 theme has been the re-acceleration of memory investment, fueled by AI servers that require large amounts of advanced memory (including high-bandwidth memory, or HBM). Barron’s tied Lam’s surge to strong memory-chip demand for AI data centers and described bullish “supercycle” expectations among some analysts. [3]
Investor’s Business Daily also highlighted Lam’s late-December push to new highs and pointed directly to HBM/AI demand as a driver of improved 2026 prospects, citing analysts who see Lam as a way to gain AI exposure through the “picks-and-shovels” layer of the ecosystem. [4]
The fundamentals: Lam’s latest quarterly results and forward guidance
The most recent full quarterly report (for the quarter ended September 28, 2025) showed Lam operating at elevated revenue and margin levels:
- Revenue:$5.32 billion
- Non-GAAP gross margin:50.6%
- Non-GAAP diluted EPS:$1.26 [5]
CEO Tim Archer said in the release: “Lam’s innovations are helping our customers address major AI-driven semiconductor manufacturing inflections.” [6]
Lam also issued forward guidance for the quarter ending December 28, 2025, calling for:
- Revenue:$5.20 billion ± $300 million
- Net income per diluted share:$1.15 ± $0.10 [7]
Those guideposts matter because, in semiconductor equipment, the market often trades less on the last quarter and more on forward orders, customer spending intentions, and management’s view of the next two to three quarters.
Reuters similarly reported that Lam expected quarterly revenue above Wall Street estimates (at the time) due to demand for tools tied to AI semiconductor production. [8]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: why $200 is the number traders keep repeating
A wave of late-year optimism has pushed multiple sell-side targets higher. One headline that helped reinforce bullish sentiment: UBS raised its price target on Lam to $200 from $175 and maintained a Buy rating, according to a note reported by TheFly. [9]
For investors trying to benchmark “the Street,” consensus snapshots vary by data provider, but a widely cited range puts many targets between the mid-$100s and low-$200s, with some services showing an average around the mid-to-high $170s and a high-end target near $210. [10]
IBD’s coverage also pointed to $200-area targets becoming more common, referencing Oppenheimer analyst Edward Yang and Deutsche Bank analyst Melissa Weathers as examples of voices constructive on Lam’s 2026 setup. [11]
Important context for readers: price targets are not guarantees—they typically assume specific cycle conditions (memory recovery, leading-edge logic ramp, stable geopolitics) that can change quickly in semiconductor equipment.
The industry backdrop: SEMI sees equipment sales rising into 2026 and 2027
Macro forecasts from industry group SEMI are a major pillar behind the “multi-year upcycle” thesis.
Reuters reported SEMI’s forecast that global sales of equipment used to make chip wafers would rise about 9% to $126 billion in 2026, and then another 7.3% to $135 billion in 2027, with AI-related logic and memory capacity expansion a central driver. [12]
SEMI has also published longer-range projections pointing to continued strength in wafer-fab equipment and related segments. For example, SEMI projected global semiconductor equipment sales reaching $156 billion in 2027, with foundry/logic equipment spending expected to remain robust as AI accelerators and high-performance computing drive advanced-node capacity additions. [13]
And on the capacity buildout side, SEMI projected worldwide 300mm fab equipment spending surpassing $100 billion and continuing to grow in subsequent years. [14]
For Lam, these forecasts don’t translate 1:1 into revenue—share shifts and customer mix matter—but they help explain why the market is willing to pay up for leaders in etch and deposition when the capex tide appears to be rising.
CEO stock sale: what it means—and what it doesn’t
One item that can spook momentum investors is insider selling. Lam’s CEO Tim Archer sold a large block of stock in mid-December. Barron’s reported that he sold roughly 163,000 shares (about $27 million) on December 17, and emphasized the sale was under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan—the type of plan executives often use to diversify without signaling a near-term view on the stock. [15]
A filing summary reflecting the same general transaction timing also described a mix of option exercise and share sales on that date. [16]
How investors typically frame this: 10b5-1 selling can still pressure sentiment short-term, but markets usually focus more on fundamentals and the equipment spending cycle unless insider sales are unusually frequent, poorly timed around guidance changes, or accompanied by negative operational developments.
The biggest risk factor investors keep circling: China exposure and policy constraints
Lam’s geographic mix is a recurring debate because chip tools sit at the center of U.S.–China technology policy.
In Lam’s September 2025 quarter report, the company listed China as 43% of revenue (with Taiwan, Korea, Japan, and the U.S. following). [17]
That exposure can be a tailwind or a headwind depending on export rules and customer behavior. On the policy front, Reuters reported in November that U.S. lawmakers introduced legislation aimed at preventing CHIPS Act grant recipients from purchasing certain Chinese chipmaking equipment for a decade (with carve-outs). Reuters noted U.S. chip toolmakers, including Lam, have supported measures intended to protect R&D and curb dependence on rival supply chains. [18]
Investors generally watch this topic for two reasons:
- Demand shifts: restrictions can redirect where fabs buy tools and when.
- Compliance and uncertainty: even when rules don’t ban sales outright, uncertainty can delay capex decisions.
Capital returns: buybacks and the legacy of the 10-for-1 stock split
Lam has been aggressive on returning capital to shareholders in recent years. In 2024, Reuters reported the company announced a 10-for-1 stock split and a share repurchase authorization of up to $10 billion, alongside commentary that the buyback fit Lam’s plan to return a large share of free cash flow to stockholders. [19]
For long-term investors, buybacks can matter most when the cycle eventually cools: repurchases may cushion EPS and provide flexibility—though the timing and execution price always determine whether they’re value-enhancing.
What to watch into the close—and before the next session
Because it’s 2:17 p.m. ET in New York right now, U.S. markets are open and Lam is still actively trading.
Here’s what investors typically track from here:
1) Thin liquidity and headline sensitivity
Reuters warned that light holiday trading volume can amplify price swings, and that year-end positioning can add noise. That’s especially relevant for high-momentum semicap names. [20]
2) The broader “Santa Claus rally” and record-high psychology
The market is entering the final stretch of 2025 with major indexes near records, and Reuters reported investors are watching milestones like the S&P 500 approaching 7,000 as the year ends. [21]
3) Next week’s macro catalysts
Reuters flagged Fed meeting minutes due next week and ongoing sensitivity to rate-cut expectations—factors that often flow through to high-multiple tech and semiconductor names. [22]
4) The next Lam earnings window
Lam has not formally confirmed its next earnings date in all venues, but major market calendars broadly point to February 4, 2026 as an expected report date (estimates based on historical scheduling). [23]
5) If you’re reading this after the close
If LRCX is trading after-hours when you see this, the key things to check before the next regular session are:
- whether any new policy headlines dropped (export controls, CHIPS-related updates), [24]
- whether peers (AMAT, KLAC, ASML) moved materially on news,
- and whether Lam issued any 8-K / filing / IR update (rare, but impactful in equipment cycles).
Bottom line for Lam Research investors
Lam Research stock is trading like a market favorite: near highs, supported by a narrative that AI-driven compute demand is pulling forward multi-year wafer-fab investment, particularly in advanced memory and leading-edge logic. SEMI’s forecasts for equipment growth in 2026–2027 reinforce that broader backdrop, while Lam’s own results and guidance show the company operating with strong margins and scale. [25]
At the same time, investors should keep two realities in view:
- Semicap cycles turn—sometimes quickly—if customers digest capacity or if macro conditions tighten. [26]
- China-policy risk remains structural, especially given Lam’s reported revenue mix and the ongoing policy debate around semiconductor tool flows. [27]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.investors.com, 5. newsroom.lamresearch.com, 6. newsroom.lamresearch.com, 7. newsroom.lamresearch.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.tipranks.com, 11. www.investors.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.semi.org, 14. www.semi.org, 15. www.barrons.com, 16. www.stocktitan.net, 17. newsroom.lamresearch.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. newsroom.lamresearch.com
