Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) stock was a standout mover on Thursday, December 18, 2025, as fresh analyst price-target increases collided with a broader rebound in semiconductor sentiment tied to Micron’s blockbuster outlook and a market-friendly inflation update. The result: a volatile session that ultimately leaned bullish for the wafer-fab equipment (WFE) leader that sits at the heart of advanced logic, DRAM, and next-gen memory buildouts. [1]
As of 17:19 UTC (12:19 p.m. ET), LRCX traded at $163.06, up about 5.2% on the day, after ranging from $156.90 to $168.20 intraday—an unusually wide swing that underscores just how headline-sensitive chip equipment stocks remain late in 2025.
What’s driving Lam Research stock today
Analysts lift targets as confidence builds around 2026 demand
The immediate catalyst cited across multiple market updates: a wave of price-target raises and reiterated bullish ratings.
- B. Riley lifted its Lam Research price objective to $195 from $180 and maintained a Buy rating, according to reports circulating Thursday morning. [2]
- Mizuho raised its Lam Research target to $200 from $170 and kept an Outperform rating, per a widely shared analyst-note recap. [3]
- Earlier in the week, Jefferies raised its price target to $200 from $175 and maintained a Buy rating, arguing that AI-driven capex can support demand across leading-edge logic, DRAM, and packaging. [4]
Market commentary on December 18 framed the move as a direct reaction to these target hikes, with Lam shares jumping sharply in morning trading as buy-side and retail traders re-priced near-term expectations. [5]
Micron’s “tight supply” message boosts the entire memory stack
Lam Research is often treated as a “picks-and-shovels” play on memory and AI infrastructure spending, and Micron’s December 18 earnings-driven surge helped reset the tone across semiconductors.
Reuters reported that Micron shares jumped after the company delivered a far stronger-than-expected profit outlook, citing soaring prices and tight supply for high-bandwidth memory (HBM)—a key component in AI servers—and management signaled that supply tightness could persist beyond 2026. [6]
For Lam, that matters because memory expansions and technology transitions tend to pull forward WFE spending, particularly in process steps where Lam has deep exposure (notably etch and deposition). Even if investors don’t assume a straight-line memory boom, Micron’s guidance helped re-open the “AI capex is durable” narrative that has powered much of the sector’s 2025 rally. [7]
A macro tailwind: stocks bounce after a softer inflation read
Lam’s upside move also played out in a broader risk-on tape. The Associated Press reported that U.S. stocks jumped Thursday after an encouraging inflation update and Micron’s results, with major indexes posting a strong session. [8]
Earlier in the day, market coverage also highlighted that traders were positioned around inflation data and that chip-linked moves were central to the market’s tone. [9]
The bigger picture: chip-equipment spending forecasts still look constructive for 2026–2027
Beyond the day’s trading catalysts, Lam investors are also digesting a forward-looking industry data point that’s become a key reference for “where the cycle is headed.”
Reuters reported this week that global sales of equipment used to manufacture semiconductor wafers are projected to rise 9% to $126 billion in 2026, followed by another 7.3% gain to $135 billion in 2027, citing SEMI forecasts. The same report noted that major WFE suppliers expected to benefit include ASML, Applied Materials, KLA, and Lam Research—essentially the core “tooling stack” for advanced nodes and AI-driven memory demand. [10]
For Lam Research stock, that SEMI outlook helps answer a question that has started to dominate late-2025 valuation debates: Is the equipment upcycle broadening beyond a short AI burst, or peaking? The SEMI projection supports the view that WFE demand could remain healthy into 2026 and 2027 even as investors rotate between subsectors (logic, DRAM, NAND, packaging).
Lam Research fundamentals: the most recent results and guidance investors are anchoring to
While December 18 headlines focused on analyst targets and sector momentum, Lam’s underlying story still traces back to its most recent earnings and outlook.
Last reported quarter: revenue beat, EPS beat
Lam’s most recent quarterly report (for the quarter ended September 28, 2025) delivered $5.32 billion in revenue and earnings ahead of consensus expectations in market coverage, reinforcing that the company was already seeing strong demand tied to advanced chip production. [11]
Guidance for the current quarter (ending Dec. 28, 2025)
Lam guided for the quarter ending December 28, 2025 to land around:
- Revenue: $5.20 billion ± $300 million
- Non-GAAP EPS: about $1.15 ± $0.10
Those figures appeared in the company’s published outlook table and were also echoed in broader financial reporting at the time. [12]
With the quarter nearing completion, the market’s debate is shifting from “can Lam hit guide?” to “what does Lam say about 2026 visibility?”—especially across memory and China-related demand.
Lam Research stock forecast: what Wall Street targets imply after today’s upgrades
Because Lam is heavily covered, “the” price target depends on which data source you’re looking at and how quickly it updates. But several widely referenced snapshots help frame the post-upgrade setup:
- MarketWatch’s analyst-estimate snapshot listed an average target price around $169.31 with 33 ratings in its dataset. [13]
- Yahoo Finance’s quote summary showed a 1-year target estimate around $164.47 (as displayed on its LRCX quote page). [14]
- Investing.com’s consensus view cited an average target in the mid-$160s, with a high estimate reaching into the low $200s depending on the analyst set. [15]
What changed on December 18 is less about the average and more about the re-assertion of the $200 “upper band”—with multiple firms now clustering around that figure (Jefferies and Mizuho at $200, B. Riley at $195). [16]
Earnings and revenue growth expectations into fiscal 2026–2027
A separate analytical angle gaining traction is the idea that Lam’s growth rate may look “moderate” compared with some chip makers, but still strong enough to justify premium attention if WFE spending expands.
A Nasdaq.com analysis published in December pointed to estimates that Lam’s fiscal 2026 revenue could grow about 14% with EPS up about 15.7%, and that fiscal 2027 projections imply ~20.6% revenue growth with ~16.2% EPS growth. [17]
(These are third-party consensus-style estimates rather than company guidance—but they help explain why “multiple expansion vs. earnings growth” is a recurring theme in Lam’s late-2025 valuation discussion.)
Key risks flagged in December 2025 coverage
Even on an up day, Lam Research stock isn’t trading in a risk-free vacuum. Several recurring concerns remain central to any serious LRCX investment thesis.
China exposure and export-control uncertainty
In prior Reuters reporting on Lam’s results, the company’s outlook has been discussed in the context of U.S. export controls and geopolitical constraints, with China and broader Asia remaining important semiconductor investment regions. [18]
Meanwhile, a December 18 analysis from Trefis highlighted investor worries tied to China and NAND-related slowing, and emphasized that historically Lam has sometimes been more volatile than the broader market during downturns—an important point for investors who are considering position sizing rather than just direction. [19]
Memory cycles can turn quickly
Micron’s strength helped today, but memory has historically been cyclical. If HBM capacity additions overshoot, or if broader DRAM/NAND pricing cools, WFE spending could normalize faster than bullish targets imply. That’s one reason Lam can swing sharply on guidance language even when quarterly numbers look solid.
Valuation and expectations risk
Lam’s 2025 run has lifted expectations and made the stock more sensitive to any “less-good” signals. That sensitivity showed up clearly on December 18 in the day’s wide trading range.
What to watch next: earnings timing, guidance, and the 2026 capex narrative
Next earnings date: late January or early February (estimates vary)
Lam has not clearly confirmed a single universal “next earnings date” across all trackers, and third-party estimates differ:
- Market Chameleon estimated an earnings window between Jan. 23 and Jan. 28, 2026 (not company-confirmed). [20]
- Nasdaq’s earnings page showed an estimated 02/04/2026 date derived algorithmically. [21]
- Zacks also listed an expected Feb. 4, 2026 earnings date. [22]
- Investing.com and other trackers referenced Jan. 28, 2026. [23]
For investors, the key takeaway isn’t the exact day (yet)—it’s that the market is already positioning for a guidance-heavy event that could either validate the $195–$200 targets or pull consensus back toward the mid-$160s.
The 2026 questions that matter most
Going into the next report, LRCX investors will likely focus on:
- Memory capex visibility (HBM-driven DRAM buildouts, NAND discipline). [24]
- WFE spending trajectory relative to SEMI’s 2026–2027 projections. [25]
- Any incremental constraint from export rules or shifts in regional demand. [26]
- Margins and mix—especially as customers prioritize advanced packaging, leading-edge nodes, and AI-linked process intensity.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. www.tipranks.com, 5. stockstory.org, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. apnews.com, 9. www.investopedia.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.marketwatch.com, 14. finance.yahoo.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.trefis.com, 20. marketchameleon.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.zacks.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com
