NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 2:50 a.m. ET — Market Closed. [1]
Li Auto Inc. stock (NASDAQ: LI) heads into the final week of 2025 with investors balancing a late-week bounce in China-linked EV names against a still-cautious analyst backdrop and a year-end trading environment that can amplify volatility. With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, the focus shifts to what could move LI when trading resumes Monday—especially fresh China policy headlines, sector sentiment around efficiency and pricing, and the next set of delivery and margin signposts. [2]
LI stock price action: where Li Auto stands after Friday’s session
Li Auto ended Friday’s session at $17.44, up about 4% on the day, after trading in a roughly $16.8 to $17.5 range on volume near 4.9 million shares. [3]
In extended trading late Friday, the stock was indicated slightly lower around $17.39. [4]
That move played out in a broader tape defined by thin, post-Christmas participation. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished marginally lower Friday in light volume as investors returned from the holiday break, a backdrop that often makes single-stock moves look “louder” than they’d be on a normal liquidity day. [5]
Why Li Auto and other China EV stocks rose: the “efficiency rules” headline
A key sector-level catalyst Friday was a policy development out of China: a new mandatory national standard setting energy-consumption limits for electric passenger vehicles, scheduled to take effect Jan. 1, 2026. TechNode reported the standard as GB 36980.1—2025 and noted that for passenger vehicles around two tons, the cap is 15.1 kWh per 100 kilometers, with compliance expected to improve driving range on average (assuming battery capacity is unchanged). [6]
Benzinga framed the same development as a market-moving rule that “picks efficiency winners and losers,” highlighting the 15.1 kWh/100 km benchmark for a two-ton vehicle and emphasizing that models failing to meet the standard after the effective date could face sales constraints. [7]
For Li Auto specifically, the nuance matters: Li Auto is widely associated with extended-range EVs (EREVs) in its high-volume L-series, while also building out battery-electric offerings. Benzinga argued that Li Auto’s EREV-heavy mix sits under a different regulatory framework than pure EVs and suggested its positioning under the new efficiency push may differ versus some peers. [8]
The macro tape: year-end thin liquidity and the “Santa Claus rally” lens
The final three trading days of the year (Monday through Wednesday) arrive with the market’s seasonal narrative in full swing. Reuters highlighted investor attention on the so-called “Santa Claus rally” window and quoted Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, describing the market as “catching our breath” after a strong run—an idea many traders keep in mind when interpreting late-December price action. [9]
For LI, that matters because U.S.-listed China ADRs can be especially sensitive to shifts in risk appetite and headline momentum, and thin year-end books can exaggerate both upside spikes and downside air pockets. [10]
What Li Auto investors are watching beneath the headlines: deliveries, capacity, and margins
While day-to-day moves often follow sentiment, Li Auto’s medium-term narrative still comes down to deliveries, product cadence, and profitability as competition persists in China’s EV market.
Most recent delivery snapshot: November 2025
In its November 2025 delivery update, Li Auto reported 33,181 vehicles delivered and said cumulative deliveries reached 1,495,969 as of Nov. 30. The company also said it expects monthly production capacity for the Li i6 to reach 20,000 units by early next year, alongside an over-the-air software update (OTA 8.1) planned for early December. [11]
Those details matter because capacity ramp and software iteration both feed into the “execution” debate around Li Auto’s transition from an EREV-dominant lineup toward a broader portfolio that includes battery-electric models. [12]
Third-quarter 2025 results: pressure points and the Q4 delivery outlook
Li Auto’s most recent quarterly report (Q3 2025) showed notable year-over-year pressure:
- Total revenue: RMB 27.4 billion (down 36.2% year over year)
- Vehicle sales: RMB 25.9 billion (down 37.4% year over year)
- Vehicle margin:15.5% (versus 20.9% a year earlier); the company said vehicle margin would have been 19.8% excluding estimated recall-related costs tied to Li MEGA
- Net loss: RMB 624.4 million
- Q4 2025 delivery outlook:100,000 to 110,000 vehicles (a projected year-over-year decline) [13]
The recall-related cost line item remains part of the market’s “how quickly do margins normalize?” question. In late October, Investing.com reported a recall affecting over 11,000 Li MEGA EVs tied to a coolant issue described as a potential safety risk in extreme cases. [14]
Analyst outlook: “Hold” consensus, but wide dispersion in targets and frameworks
Analyst sentiment on Li Auto remains mixed—less a single verdict than a tug-of-war between valuation arguments (cheap versus history/peers) and execution/margin concerns (competition, model mix transition, and ramp costs).
MarketBeat snapshot: average target above spot, but targets have been trimmed
MarketBeat summarized the Street view as an average “Hold” rating with an average price target of about $21.66, while noting that targets have been coming down. It cited examples including:
- HSBC: reiterated Hold and cut its price objective to $18.60 (from $30.30)
- Barclays: cut price target to $18.00 and kept Equal Weight
- Citigroup: reduced target to $20.20 with Neutral
- CLSA: previously raised the stock to Strong Buy [15]
The takeaway: the average target still sits above current levels, but the direction of revisions recently has leaned cautious. [16]
Goldman Sachs: Buy rating maintained, target cut, 2026 rebound thesis
In early December, Investing.com reported Goldman Sachs lowered its price target on Li Auto to $27 from $30.90 while maintaining a Buy rating. Goldman’s thesis leaned on a 2026 recovery profile, forecasting:
- 2026 sales volume:539,000 units (34% year-over-year growth forecast)
- 2026 revenue:+26% year over year (after a projected decline in 2025)
- 2026 EBIT margin:3.0% (vs. a negative margin forecast for 2025) [17]
Goldman’s note also pointed to recall costs and slower-than-expected i6 production ramp (battery-related constraints) as factors behind lowered earnings estimates. [18]
Zacks/Nasdaq angle: estimate revisions and a bearish rank
A separate framework comes from earnings-estimate revision models. A Zacks Equity Research piece published on Nasdaq described downward estimate revisions and assigned Li Auto a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), while listing consensus EPS and revenue expectations and noting recent estimate changes. [19]
For investors, the practical point isn’t that one model “wins,” but that LI currently sits in a market crosscurrent: valuation bulls can point to upside-to-target and long-run product expansion, while revision-based models flag near-term fundamental downdrafts. [20]
If markets are closed: what LI investors should know before Monday’s open
Because U.S. exchanges are closed for the weekend, LI’s next real liquidity test is Monday’s session—starting with premarket access for many brokers.
1) Know the clock for Nasdaq trading and extended hours
Nasdaq’s standard schedule is 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET for the regular session, with typical extended-hours windows described as 4:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. ET (premarket) and 4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. ET (after-hours), broker-dependent. [21]
That means any weekend digestion of China policy headlines won’t show up in U.S. pricing until those windows reopen Monday. [22]
2) Expect year-end liquidity effects to remain real through Dec. 31
Reuters and AP both emphasized how light participation was in Friday’s session. With only three trading days left in 2025, that “thin book” character can persist, making gap moves and quick reversals more common—especially in higher-beta corners like China ADRs. [23]
3) Watch the policy thread: efficiency rules and who benefits
The China energy-consumption standard is scheduled for Jan. 1, 2026, and the market is already gaming out which automakers are best positioned. For Li Auto shareholders, the key question is whether the rule changes competitive dynamics for Li Auto’s battery-electric ambitions (including i-series products) without undermining its cash-generating core. [24]
4) Keep the next delivery update and margin narrative in view
Li Auto’s November delivery update put a spotlight on capacity ramp for the Li i6 and ongoing expansion of its retail and charging footprint. The next monthly delivery release (typically early in the month, based on the company’s cadence) is often a near-term catalyst for the stock—especially when sentiment is already elevated by macro or policy headlines. [25]
5) Holiday schedule check: New Year’s is the next hard stop
Investopedia and Nasdaq’s trading calendar both indicate that U.S. markets are closed on Jan. 1, 2026 for New Year’s Day, while New Year’s Eve remains a full stock trading day (with bond-market timing differences). That matters for anyone planning entries/exits around reduced liquidity and news risk. [26]
Bottom line for Li Auto stock heading into Monday
Li Auto (LI) enters the last stretch of 2025 with a constructive short-term tailwind from sector momentum—helped by fresh China EV efficiency-rule headlines—while the “bigger” debate remains about execution: delivery trajectory, BEV ramp, and margin normalization after a quarter that included recall-related costs and a weaker profitability profile.
For Monday’s session, investors will likely focus on whether Friday’s bounce was a one-day, thin-volume sentiment burst—or the start of a more durable repricing as policy, product cadence, and analyst expectations converge into early-2026 positioning. [27]
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.benzinga.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. technode.com, 7. www.benzinga.com, 8. www.benzinga.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.globenewswire.com, 12. www.globenewswire.com, 13. www.globenewswire.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. technode.com, 25. www.globenewswire.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. www.reuters.com
