December 12, 2025 — Linde plc (NASDAQ: LIN) is back in the spotlight today as a wave of analyst updates hit the tape following a recent investor event and a notable valuation “reset” after weeks of weakness. By late morning, LIN was trading higher on the day (roughly +3%) around the low-to-mid $400s, according to MarketScreener’s real-time estimate feed. [1]
Below is a detailed roundup of today’s news, fresh analyst calls, and what the latest forecasts say about Linde’s earnings trajectory, project backlog, and the key risks investors are still debating heading into 2026.
What’s driving Linde stock today: a cluster of analyst notes (and a clearer 2026 setup)
The dominant theme on Dec. 12 is not a single blockbuster contract or earnings release. Instead, it’s a stack of Wall Street updates that collectively reinforce a similar message:
- Linde’s long-term EPS “algorithm” still looks intact, especially when industrial activity normalizes. [2]
- The company’s sale-of-gas backlog and large projects starting in 2026 could add meaningfully to earnings, even if near-term macro conditions stay choppy. [3]
- At the same time, several firms are acknowledging macro and pricing uncertainty, particularly tied to European volumes and the timing of industrial recovery. [4]
Today’s analyst actions on Linde (Dec. 12, 2025): ratings and price targets
The big picture: targets cluster around ~$490–$535
Multiple analysts reiterated bullish stances today, with price targets largely centered in a tight band—suggesting Wall Street sees solid upside from current levels, but is calibrating expectations around the timing of a recovery and pricing momentum.
Here are the major Dec. 12 calls captured across analyst note roundups:
- UBS: Reiterated Buy, $500 target; referenced an investor event and reiterated confidence in Linde’s ability to deliver 10%+ EPS growth over time. [5]
- Evercore ISI: Reiterated Outperform, $490 target; argued Linde is seeing a “rare valuation reset” and highlighted 2026 project catalysts. [6]
- Jefferies: Reiterated Buy, $535 target (unchanged). [7]
- Deutsche Bank: Maintained Buy, $495 target (unchanged). [8]
- RBC Capital: Kept Outperform but cut target to $490 from $540 (headline update). [9]
- Mizuho: Maintained Outperform but cut target to $495 from $520 (headline update). [10]
“Forecast” signal from consensus targets
Different aggregators show slightly different consensus values (because of coverage lists and timing), but both point to meaningful upside:
- MarketScreener lists a “BUY” mean consensus, 26 analysts, and an average target price of $502.88 versus a $403.30 last close in its snapshot. [11]
- MarketBeat reports an average target around $507.25 with a “Buy” consensus, citing a mix of Buy/Strong Buy/Hold ratings. [12]
- Investing.com’s summary of InvestingPro data flags a target range of $381 to $565, underscoring that the Street is bullish overall—but not uniform on timing and upside. [13]
UBS vs. Evercore: two bullish frameworks, two different emphases
UBS: “EPS algorithm” + industrial normalization could be powerful
UBS’s Dec. 12 update (after Linde’s investor event) centers on Linde’s long-term earnings framework:
- UBS reiterated a 10%+ EPS growth view “over time.” [14]
- The firm describes the EPS algorithm as 4–6% from “management actions” (price/cost/productivity) plus 4–6% from capital allocation (capex/backlog/buybacks)—before any macro lift. [15]
- UBS adds that if industrial production returns to even modest growth (it references 1–2% macro growth), total EPS growth could push into the low-to-mid teens, though investors are debating how macro assumptions will be reflected in 2026 guidance. [16]
Evercore: valuation reset + 2026 project ramp is the bridge
Evercore’s Dec. 12 note leans heavily into what changes in 2026, even if 2025 remains mixed:
- Evercore highlighted a valuation shift to ~22.6x 2026 EPS and framed it as a “market parity” valuation and a multi-year low relative premium. [17]
- It also pointed to a $7+ billion sale-of-gas backlog expected by end of 2025, with major projects coming online in 2026—including supply tied to TSMC Arizona (Fab 2 / fabs 1+2), Samsung’s Taylor plant, Woodside low-carbon ammonia, and a SpaceX Brownsville ASU. [18]
- Evercore estimates these projects could contribute roughly ~3% to earnings in 2026, supporting management’s confidence in high single-digit EPS growth even with weak industrial activity. [19]
Company fundamentals that underpin the forecast: Q3 resilience, cautious Q4 guidance
While today’s headlines are analyst-driven, the baseline for most models still traces back to Linde’s most recent quarterly disclosure.
From Linde’s Q3 2025 earnings release:
- Sales:$8.6B, up 3% YoY [20]
- Adjusted EPS:$4.21, up 7% YoY [21]
- Adjusted operating profit margin:29.7% (up 10 bps) [22]
- Operating cash flow:$2.9B, up 8% YoY [23]
- Full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance:$16.35–$16.45 (5–6% growth) [24]
- Q4 2025 adjusted EPS outlook:$4.10–$4.20 [25]
- Capex plan:$5.0B–$5.5B for full-year 2025, supporting growth + maintenance, including the company’s $7.1B contractual sale-of-gas project backlog [26]
The macro friction point: Europe volumes
Linde’s own segment detail shows why Europe remains central to the “bear case” debate:
- In EMEA, Linde reported underlying sales down 1%, with +2% pricing more than offset by -3% volumes (notably in metals & mining and manufacturing end markets). [27]
Reuters has also highlighted the same pressure point: after Q3, Linde guided Q4 EPS below consensus at the time, citing weakness in Europe and noting the volume decline trend in EMEA. [28]
The 2026 catalyst list: why “sale-of-gas” backlog matters so much for LIN
For industrial gas leaders like Linde, the market often assigns premium valuation when investors believe the company can compound earnings through long-duration, contracted projects—not just ride the industrial cycle.
Today’s updates repeatedly circle the same “2026 bridge”:
- Linde’s Q3 materials explicitly reference a $7.1B contractual sale-of-gas project backlog tied to planned investment. [29]
- Evercore’s Dec. 12 note details expected 2026 start-ups and customer-linked projects across semiconductors and low-carbon energy, which could add incremental earnings even if industrial production stays soft. [30]
In plain English: if project start-ups land on schedule and ramp smoothly, 2026 becomes the year where Linde can potentially “earn through” macro softness via backlog conversion—exactly the setup that supports the higher price targets you’re seeing today.
Risks investors are still watching (even with bullish targets)
Even as analysts reiterate Buy/Outperform ratings, today’s notes also surface the key watch-items:
1) Pricing momentum (a near-term tell)
Evercore notes investor scrutiny after 0% price in Q3 and suggests Q4 pricing improvement is important—especially given the heavy concentration of price renewals near year-end. [31]
2) European industrial demand
Both Linde’s segment details and Reuters coverage keep Europe demand weakness front-and-center. [32]
3) Macro assumptions in 2026 guidance
UBS explicitly flags that macro assumptions and how they flow into 2026 guidance remain an area of debate. [33]
Dividend and shareholder returns: what matters right now
For income-focused investors, Linde’s next dividend is near-term and clearly defined:
- Linde declared a $1.50 quarterly dividend payable Dec. 17, 2025 to shareholders of record Dec. 3, 2025. [34]
On capital returns more broadly, Linde’s Q3 release shows the company returned about $1.685B to shareholders in the quarter through dividends and repurchases (net of issuance). [35]
Institutional and insider-related headlines circulating into today
A few “positioning” headlines are also adding color to sentiment:
- MarketBeat published Dec. 12 stories pointing to new positions disclosed in filings (e.g., Ilex Capital Partners UK LLP disclosed a new position during the second quarter, per the report). [36]
- GuruFocus reported that Linde CEO Sanjiv Lamba bought shares on Dec. 8, 2025, citing an SEC filing. [37]
- GuruFocus also reported on Dec. 12 that Citi identified Linde as a “top sector pick,” citing project pipeline/positioning and valuation metrics “near historical lows.” [38]
(Important context: institutional filing-based stories often reflect prior-quarter positioning, not necessarily real-time trades. Still, they can influence headlines and investor perception.)
What to watch next for Linde stock (LIN)
If you’re tracking LIN into year-end and early 2026, today’s analyst coverage suggests these are the key checkpoints:
- Q4 pricing progress (watch for evidence of improved pricing vs. Q3). [39]
- Europe volume stabilization (still the biggest macro overhang in many models). [40]
- Backlog conversion and project start-ups heading into 2026 (the “bridge” behind bullish targets). [41]
- Next earnings timing: MarketScreener’s calendar snapshot lists Feb. 4 as a projected Q4 earnings release date. [42]
Quick FAQ (SEO-friendly)
Is Linde stock a Buy or Sell on Dec. 12, 2025?
Most analyst updates published today lean bullish: UBS reiterated Buy ($500), Evercore reiterated Outperform ($490), Jefferies reiterated Buy ($535), and Deutsche Bank maintained Buy ($495)—with RBC and Mizuho still at Outperform despite target cuts. [43]
What is the Wall Street price target range for LIN right now?
InvestingPro’s cited range is $381 to $565, while MarketScreener’s snapshot shows an average target around $502.88 (26 analysts). [44]
What is Linde’s latest 2025 EPS guidance?
Linde guided full-year 2025 adjusted EPS of $16.35–$16.45, with Q4 adjusted EPS expected at $4.10–$4.20. [45]
When is Linde’s next dividend paid?
Linde’s declared quarterly dividend of $1.50 is payable Dec. 17, 2025 (record date Dec. 3, 2025). [46]
Investor note: This article summarizes publicly available reporting and analyst commentary as of Dec. 12, 2025. It is not investment advice.
References
1. www.marketscreener.com, 2. uk.investing.com, 3. uk.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. uk.investing.com, 6. uk.investing.com, 7. www.marketscreener.com, 8. www.marketscreener.com, 9. www.marketscreener.com, 10. www.marketscreener.com, 11. www.marketscreener.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. uk.investing.com, 14. uk.investing.com, 15. uk.investing.com, 16. uk.investing.com, 17. uk.investing.com, 18. uk.investing.com, 19. uk.investing.com, 20. assets.linde.com, 21. assets.linde.com, 22. assets.linde.com, 23. assets.linde.com, 24. assets.linde.com, 25. assets.linde.com, 26. assets.linde.com, 27. assets.linde.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. assets.linde.com, 30. uk.investing.com, 31. uk.investing.com, 32. assets.linde.com, 33. uk.investing.com, 34. www.linde.com, 35. assets.linde.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. www.gurufocus.com, 38. www.gurufocus.com, 39. uk.investing.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. uk.investing.com, 42. www.marketscreener.com, 43. uk.investing.com, 44. uk.investing.com, 45. assets.linde.com, 46. www.linde.com
