Dec. 15, 2025 — Linde plc (NASDAQ: LIN), the world’s largest industrial gases company, is back in the spotlight after a sharp move higher tied to fresh Wall Street commentary and renewed debate over whether the stock’s recent pullback has gone too far.
In the latest trading update available on Monday, Linde shares were last seen around $418.75, up about 0.6% on the day. Against a 52‑week range of $387.78 to $486.38, the stock remains closer to its lows than its highs—one reason analyst notes have been landing with outsized influence in December. [1]
Below is a full, publication-ready breakdown of all notable Linde-stock-specific news and filings dated Dec. 15, 2025, plus the latest analyst forecasts and fundamental drivers shaping the outlook into 2026.
What’s happening with Linde stock today
The most market-moving development in the Linde story is the shift in tone among major analysts after the company’s recent investor discussions.
A markets recap published today notes that Linde shares “closed up more than +3%” after Citigroup said the stock is a “new top pick,” reiterating a Buy and pointing to a $520 price target. [2] This matters for two reasons:
- It frames the recent weakness as potentially sentiment-driven, not purely fundamentals-driven.
- It positions Linde as a likely beneficiary of rotation into “industrial” and quality cash-flow names, even when higher bond yields pressure growth stocks. [3]
Citi’s “top pick” call also echoed across market-news wires: a summary of the note says Citi views the pullback as overdone, arguing investors are underappreciating Linde’s project backlog and its cyclical leverage if industrial production improves. [4]
The quick snapshot: price, range, and market cap
As of today’s market data, Linde is trading within a $387.78–$486.38 52‑week band. [5] MarketWatch’s quote page also lists Linde at roughly a $194 billion market cap level alongside that same 52-week range, reflecting how much of the mega-cap industrial complex Linde has become. [6]
Dec. 15, 2025: The “current news” — three fresh institutional filings move into view
Not all “news” is product launches or earnings. On Dec. 15, multiple institutional-ownership items hit the tape, reflecting how big holders are positioning.
1) Corient Private Wealth increases its Linde stake
A Dec. 15 filing summary reported Corient Private Wealth LLC increased its stake by 10.1%, adding 64,047 shares and bringing its holding to 697,524 shares (valued in the filing summary at about $327 million). [7]
2) Texas Permanent School Fund trims its position
A separate Dec. 15 item said Texas Permanent School Fund Corp reduced its stake by 32.7%, selling 19,934 shares and leaving 41,011 shares (valued around $19.24 million in the filing recap). [8]
3) B. Riley Wealth Advisors opens a new position
Another Dec. 15 note indicated B. Riley Wealth Advisors initiated a new position with 3,702 shares (valued at roughly $1.74 million in the filing recap). [9]
Why these filings matter for LIN stock: Linde is widely held by institutions, and these updates reinforce that the shareholder base is dominated by professional allocators. The same filing summaries peg institutional ownership at roughly ~82.8%, which can support valuation stability—but can also amplify “risk-off” drawdowns when funds rebalance. [10]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: the December 2025 reset
Linde’s near-term narrative has become less about “Did they beat earnings?” and more about what multiple investors should pay for a company with durable pricing power—but cyclical end-market exposure.
UBS: Buy rating, $500 target — and a clear “10%+ EPS growth” framework
In a widely circulated note published Dec. 12 (still shaping sentiment today), UBS reiterated a Buy rating and a $500 price target following Linde’s investor event. UBS said it believes Linde can deliver 10%+ EPS growth over time, arguing the market may be pricing in only mid-single-digit EPS growth. [11]
UBS also laid out the mechanics behind that “10%+” view:
- 4–6% from management actions (price/cost, productivity)
- 4–6% from capital allocation (capex deployment, backlog conversion, buybacks)
- Plus an additional potential lift if industrial production returns to 1–2% macro growth, which UBS suggests could push EPS growth into the low-to-mid teens. [12]
Citi: “New top pick” and a $520 price target
Today’s market recap linked Linde’s jump to Citigroup calling it a new top pick with a $520 price target. [13] A separate synopsis of the Citi note emphasizes two pillars behind that stance: Linde’s “high-quality” project backlog and the stock’s leverage to an industrial rebound. [14]
RBC, Mizuho, and others: targets come down, but ratings often stay constructive
Even among firms trimming targets, the tone has generally remained positive. For example, recent analyst-roundup coverage highlights that RBC reduced its target (while keeping an Outperform stance) and that Mizuho adjusted its target while maintaining an Outperform view. [15]
Takeaway: The Street’s near-term disagreement isn’t “Is Linde a good business?” It’s how quickly volumes recover, especially in Europe, and what valuation is justified while that recovery remains uncertain.
The fundamentals behind the debate: Linde’s latest earnings, guidance, cash flow, and backlog
To understand why analysts keep circling back to Linde, it helps to look at the company’s operating model—and the numbers.
Q3 2025 highlights: resilient margins and strong cash generation
In its third-quarter 2025 report, Linde posted:
- Sales of $8.6 billion, up 3% year over year
- Adjusted operating profit margin of 29.7%, up 10 basis points
- Adjusted EPS of $4.21, up 7% year over year
- Operating cash flow of $2.948 billion, up 8%
- Free cash flow of $1.672 billion after capex of $1.276 billion
- $1.685 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and repurchases (net of issuances) [16]
CEO Sanjiv Lamba’s commentary in the release is consistent with the “quality industrial” framing: Linde delivered record EPS despite “stagnant industrial activity,” while also signaling caution on the timing of a recovery. [17]
Guidance: Q4 and full-year 2025 expectations
Linde guided for Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $4.10 to $4.20 and full-year 2025 adjusted EPS of $16.35 to $16.45. [18]
Capex and backlog: the “multi-year visibility” piece
A key line that underpins the bullish thesis is Linde’s disclosed contractual sale-of-gas project backlog of $7.1 billion, alongside full-year capex expected at $5.0 to $5.5 billion. [19]
That backlog is exactly what “top pick” notes tend to highlight: it can provide multi-year earnings visibility even if spot industrial demand is soft.
The biggest swing factor: Europe volumes and the pace of industrial recovery
If the bull case is “quality + backlog + pricing + buybacks,” the bear case centers on one theme: macro softness, especially in Europe.
A Reuters report on Linde’s Q3 results noted the company’s cautious Q4 outlook and tied it to weakness in its European business, citing volume declines in the EMEA region and expectations that softness could continue. [20]
This is why analysts can land on different price targets while keeping similar ratings: the timing of a European rebound and broader industrial upcycle is the variable that changes the near-term earnings slope.
Why long-term investors still keep coming back to LIN stock
Even after a period of underperformance, Linde continues to appear in “best ideas” and “top rated” screens.
A recent Kiplinger analysis of Strong Buy-rated S&P 500 names included Linde, noting the stock was pressured by a weak environment for large industrial projects (especially in Europe), but that bulls argue the selloff is overdone. [21] The same piece points to Linde managing a significant project backlog and expects improved macro conditions in 2026. [22]
This aligns with what UBS and Citi are effectively underwriting: a high-quality compounding model that looks most attractive when the market is skeptical about growth.
Dividend: what income investors need to know right now
Linde declared a quarterly dividend of $1.50 per share, with payment scheduled for Dec. 17, 2025, to shareholders of record on Dec. 3, 2025. [23]
Dividend growth isn’t the only reason investors buy Linde—but it reinforces the “total return” thesis that many industrial-quality investors favor.
Outlook for 2026: catalysts, risks, and what to watch next
Potential catalysts for Linde stock
- Industrial production rebound: Both Citi and UBS point directly to leverage if industrial activity improves. [24]
- Backlog conversion: The $7.1B contractual project backlog provides a tangible runway that can turn into earnings over time. [25]
- Operating discipline and capital returns: Linde’s ability to generate cash and return capital remained evident in Q3 shareholder payouts. [26]
Key risks investors are watching
- Europe demand softness: Linde itself and Reuters coverage have highlighted ongoing weakness in Europe volumes as a central constraint. [27]
- Valuation sensitivity to rates: When bond yields rise, high-quality compounders can still de-rate even if fundamentals are intact—especially if the market doubts near-term volume growth (a theme visible in today’s broader market framing). [28]
- Execution timing: Backlog is valuable, but project timing, permitting, customer schedules, and energy-cost dynamics can all shift when revenue and margin show up.
The next major date: Q4 earnings season
Linde’s next major catalyst will be its fourth-quarter reporting cycle in early 2026. Investors will likely focus on:
- Any update to the 2026 macro assumptions
- Backlog conversion pace and capex discipline
- Margin durability and pricing vs. volume mix
- Buyback cadence and free cash flow trends
Bottom line: why Dec. 15 matters for Linde stock
Dec. 15, 2025 is shaping up as a “sentiment inflection” day for LIN stock—not because of a new earnings print, but because:
- Citi’s “new top pick” framing and $520 target has helped re-anchor the bull narrative around backlog quality and industrial cyclicality. [29]
- Fresh institutional filings show active positioning in the shareholder base, reinforcing how professionally owned the stock is. [30]
- UBS’s detailed “10%+ EPS growth” algorithm gives investors a clean framework to debate what’s priced in—and what might be missing if macro conditions improve in 2026. [31]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.tipranks.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.marketwatch.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.businesswire.com, 17. www.businesswire.com, 18. www.businesswire.com, 19. www.businesswire.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.kiplinger.com, 22. www.kiplinger.com, 23. www.linde.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.businesswire.com, 26. www.businesswire.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.nasdaq.com, 29. www.nasdaq.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.investing.com
