New York, January 20, 2026, 07:29 EST — Premarket
- On Tuesday, China’s battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price climbed roughly 1%, reaching 152,500 yuan a tonne.
- China’s most-active lithium carbonate futures contract hit the limit-up at settlement; Guangzhou’s exchange plans to tighten trading limits starting with the Jan. 21 settlement.
- Premarket trading showed a mixed bag for U.S.-listed lithium miners.
China’s lithium prices moved higher again Tuesday. Spot battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 152,500 yuan ($/t), up 1,500 yuan from the previous working day. Meanwhile, the most-active lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange surged nearly 9%, hitting its daily upper limit at 160,500 yuan, according to SMM data. Upstream sellers held back spot volumes beyond their long-term contracts, while downstream buyers mostly stuck to “as needed” purchases, SMM noted. Overall trade activity slipped a bit. 1
This shift is crucial as lithium has reemerged as a key driver of battery costs, following a prolonged slump that saw much of the supply chain prioritize inventory clearance over securing materials. A swift price rebound could lure financial investors back into a market that remains volatile, particularly in China’s futures contracts.
Regulators are responding to the price swings. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced it will increase the daily price limit for lithium carbonate futures to 11%. It is also boosting margin requirements to 13% for speculative positions and 12% for hedging trades, starting after settlement on Jan. 21. 2
Before the Wall Street open, U.S.-listed lithium stocks showed mixed moves. Albemarle was marked down roughly 6.2%, Chile’s SQM slipped about 2.6%, and Lithium Americas edged up near 1.6%. The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF dipped around 1.7%.
China’s spot benchmark for lithium has jumped about 54% in the past month, according to widely followed price data tracking the domestic market. 3
The recent surge partly reflects policy shifts tied to battery exports. China announced earlier this month it will reduce value-added tax export rebates on battery products starting in April, phasing them out completely by January 1, 2027. Analysts say this move might accelerate shipments and boost battery production in the short term, pushing lithium demand higher. 4
Expectations for grid-scale storage demand have gained more traction in this year’s narrative compared to last. A Reuters analysis from earlier this month highlights forecasts showing robust growth in lithium consumption for energy storage by 2026. Still, analysts warn of risks, including slower electric vehicle adoption and the potential for sodium-ion batteries to capture some storage market share. 5
Still, the rally carries a major caveat. Prices could drop fast if downstream buyers hold off for pullbacks, or if wider limits and fatter margins sap the futures-driven surge. Liquidity remains patchy, and physical demand often fails to match what’s seen on screen.
Traders are eyeing how the Guangzhou exchange’s fresh price-limit and margin rules take effect following the Jan. 21 settlement. They’ll also watch if spot buying spreads beyond short-term restocking, with April’s battery export rebate cut looming.
