New York, Jan 22, 2026, 07:08 EST — Premarket
- China’s battery-grade lithium carbonate price climbed roughly 3.8% to 164,500 yuan per ton, continuing its rebound from January.
- Guangzhou’s lithium futures saw sharp swings, leading the exchange to expand daily price limits.
- On Wednesday, U.S.-listed lithium stocks closed up, led by Albemarle among the big caps.
Lithium prices in China climbed once more on Thursday, with battery-grade lithium carbonate hitting 164,500 yuan ($20,855) per metric ton, VAT excluded. 1
The recent surge is crucial since lithium underpins nearly all EV and grid-battery chemistries, with its price quickly impacting miner profits and battery expenses. Following a prolonged slump caused by oversupply, the rebound is pushing miners and cathode producers to rethink their contracts and inventory strategies.
Futures continue to stir the pot. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange raised the daily trading limit from 9% to 11%, reacting to multiple limit hits this month. A spokesperson cited “heightened price volatility” and “increased market attention” as reasons. 2
In the physical market, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index climbed to 164,857 yuan per ton, with spot transactions reported between 161,000 and 168,000 yuan, it said. SMM also noted a pickup in upstream quotes, ongoing maintenance at certain lithium chemical plants, and downstream purchases driven by “rigid demand” alongside stockpiling ahead of February. 3
On Wednesday in U.S. trading, Albemarle finished at $180.06, marking a roughly 4.3% rise. Chile’s SQM climbed around 2.1%. Lithium Americas dropped close to 2.0%, while the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF jumped about 3.7%.
Wall Street is backing the rally. Truist’s Peter Osterland bumped Albemarle up to a “buy” rating and lifted his price target to $205, Barron’s noted. The move reflects surging lithium prices and growing demand from utility-scale battery storage projects. 4
The rally has been boosted by China’s policy timing. Beijing announced it will reduce battery export VAT rebates from 9% to 6% starting April and plans to eliminate them altogether by January 1, 2027. Analysts believe this move could accelerate battery exports and drive near-term lithium demand, despite the rebate targeting batteries rather than lithium carbonate itself. 5
Last week in Washington, lawmakers from both parties unveiled a bill proposing a $2.5 billion Strategic Resilience Reserve focused on critical minerals like lithium. The goal: steady markets and shore up domestic supply chains. “Providing targeted investments and stockpiling key inputs will help insulate the U.S. from foreign threats,” Senator Jeanne Shaheen said. 6
The core question is whether energy storage can continue to tighten a market that’s still seeing fresh supply. A Reuters review from earlier this month, referencing UBS calculations, showed lithium demand for energy storage surging in 2026, even as supply is also projected to increase — a scenario likely to keep prices volatile rather than on a steady upward path. 7
However, the trade could flip quickly. Should maintenance outages run short, or the export surge ease after the initial push, spot prices may retreat just as fast—particularly if Chinese futures regulators clamp down on speculative activity. Add in any weakness in EV demand early next year, and gains could vanish swiftly.
Investors are now focused on whether Guangzhou will tighten risk controls again amid volatile futures, if spot prices can stay steady through February restocking, and Albemarle’s Q4 2025 earnings due Feb. 11, with the conference call set for Feb. 12. 8
