New York, March 20, 2026, 18:42 EDT
Lyft shares ticked up 0.7% to $13.47 late Friday in U.S. trading. The small gain followed Jefferies’ decision a day earlier to trim its price target to $15 from $15.50, sticking with a Hold rating. The firm cautioned that sluggish U.S. rideshare growth and Waymo’s rollout might drag on the stock.
It’s a key point for Lyft, which has been pitching investors on buybacks, a move into Europe, and lining up fresh AI and driverless-car deals to counter the squeeze in its main U.S. operations. But with Uber ratcheting up its robotaxi push, the argument is a harder sell—analysts are openly doubting Lyft’s ability to keep its foothold at home.
Jefferies flagged Lyft’s slowing U.S. rideshare numbers—growth dropped to 8.5% year over year in Q4 2025, down sharply from 20% back in Q1 2024. Even if things steady from here, analysts at the brokerage see 1% to 3% downside risk for Lyft’s 2026 and 2027 bookings, which covers the value of trips and transactions running through its platform. Waymo, meanwhile, saw weekly paid rides jump to 450,000 by December 2025, up from 150,000 in October 2024. That ramp could trim 0.4% to 0.6% off Lyft’s bookings growth for 2026 and 2027, according to Jefferies.
Mark Giarelli at Morningstar didn’t mince words on Friday, calling out a sharp divide: “The core strategic divide between Uber and Lyft is network depth versus price competition,” he wrote. Lyft, he noted, has just a single Waymo arrangement going in Nashville, while Uber’s setup with autonomous-vehicle partners goes further. Morningstar, Inc.
Lyft is leaning into its own tech effort. The company announced Monday it plans to deploy Nvidia’s AI tools for smarter rider-driver pairing, mapping upgrades, and support systems for upcoming autonomous fleets. Siddharth Patil, who heads rideshare and marketplace at Lyft, called the AI infrastructure the “backbone of modern mobility.” Lyft, Inc.
Uber on Thursday announced plans to invest as much as $1.25 billion in Rivian, aiming to roll out 10,000 autonomous R2 SUVs starting in 2028. The move stacks on top of Uber’s existing partnerships with Waymo, Baidu, Lucid, and Nvidia—clear evidence of the accelerating robotaxi race.
But Lyft faces pressure to prove its fresh partnerships actually boost demand, rather than just improve the narrative. Jefferies trimmed its 2027 bookings and EBITDA estimates, now sitting 3% and 7% under the consensus, and kept its price target only slightly higher than Friday’s close.
This isn’t a fresh worry. Back in February, Lyft put out a first-quarter adjusted core profit outlook that fell short, blaming tough winter storms and higher seasonal costs. The company also surprised markets with an unexpected 2025 operating loss, wiping out 16% from its shares in after-hours trade—despite announcing a hefty $1 billion buyback. “Uber, Lyft’s main competitor, is growing earnings much faster than Lyft,” said Andrew Rocco, stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research at the time. Reuters
Lyft isn’t building from the ground up. The company turned in record results for the fourth quarter and all of 2025, pulled in $1.12 billion in free cash flow, and said its 2027 goals remain in play. Still, Jefferies kept its Hold, and a Friday note from Morningstar flagged that investors want firmer signs U.S. ride demand will accelerate.
