Snapshot: Macquarie shares steady as big strategic moves land
Macquarie Group Limited (ASX: MQG) shares were trading around A$195.44 during Thursday’s session on 4 December 2025, up just over 1% intraday as the market absorbed a fresh dividend allocation update, the completed sale of a major asset-management franchise to Nomura, and the ongoing A$11.6 billion bid for logistics operator Qube Holdings. [1]
The stock is hovering slightly below the ~A$197 level where it has traded for much of the past week, after investors digested mixed half‑year results in November and a string of large strategic deals that are reshaping the group’s earnings mix and risk profile. TS2 Tech+1
Macquarie Group share price and valuation on 4 December 2025
Live data from the S&P/ASX 300 table shows Macquarie trading at about A$195.44, up A$2.02 (1.04%) on the day, with an intraday range between A$194.45 and A$195.67. [2] Separate live-pricing feeds put the stock in the A$196 area and show it roughly flat over the past week, confirming that recent price action has been relatively subdued after October–November’s volatility. [3]
On fundamentals, Macquarie’s key metrics look like this:
- Earnings & dividends: trailing earnings per share (EPS) of about A$9.70 and dividends per share (DPS) of A$6.70. [4]
- Valuation: at around A$195–196, that equates to a trailing price–earnings (P/E) multiple of roughly 20x and a trailing cash dividend yield of about 3.4%. [5]
- Book value: book value per share is just above A$90, meaning the stock trades at a bit more than 2x trailing book, in line with what Reuters commentary identifies as a premium to peers given today’s lower returns on equity. [6]
From a market-structure perspective, Macquarie remains one of the most systemically important names on the ASX. It is a top holding in multiple Australian equity and dividend ETFs, including SPDR S&P/ASX 200 (weight ~2.65%), SPDR MSCI Australia Select High Dividend Yield (~8.33%) and Vanguard Diversified High Growth (~1.07%), reinforcing constant institutional demand and liquidity in the stock. [7]
Half-year FY26 result: solid profit, softer returns
Macquarie’s latest numbers are the main anchor for current valuations. On 7 November 2025 the group reported 1H26 net profit of A$1,655 million for the six months to 30 September 2025, up 3% versus the same half a year earlier but down 21% versus the preceding half. Net operating income rose 6% year‑on‑year to A$8,691 million, while operating expenses increased 5%. Assets under management climbed to A$959.1 billion, up 5% year‑on‑year. The group reported an annualised return on equity (ROE) of 9.6%, materially below the high‑teens returns Macquarie delivered in the years before 2023. [8]
Capital and funding remain a key strength. Macquarie reported:
- Group capital surplus of A$7.6 billion above regulatory minimums.
- Bank Level 2 CET1 ratio of 12.4% (harmonised 17.3%).
- Liquidity Coverage Ratio of 173% and Net Stable Funding Ratio of 113%. [9]
The business-mix story, however, is increasingly nuanced:
- Macquarie Asset Management (MAM): net profit contribution of A$1,175 million, up 43% year‑on‑year, driven by performance fees from infrastructure and data‑centre assets such as AirTrunk and Aligned Data Centers. [10]
- Banking and Financial Services (BFS): net profit contribution of A$793 million, up 22%, supported by expansion in the Australian mortgage book and deposit growth, partly offset by margin compression and higher tech costs. [11]
- Commodities and Global Markets (CGM): profit fell 15% to A$1,113 million as subdued volatility in global commodities markets weighed on trading revenues and higher remediation and platform investment costs hit margins. [12]
- Macquarie Capital: profit contribution of A$711 million, up 92% year‑on‑year on stronger M&A advisory, brokerage fees and private credit income. [13]
Market reaction was cool. Reuters notes that while profit grew modestly year‑on‑year, it landed about 12% below consensus, prompting a 5.7% share-price fall on the day and leaving the stock down roughly 7.6% for the year at that point, versus a ~14% gain in the ASX financials index. [14]
Coverage from The Australian and other local outlets emphasised that the A$1.65 billion profit was dragged by writedowns and weaker returns in parts of the renewables portfolio, especially offshore wind, even as the group reiterated its long‑term commitment to green and transition assets. These reports also highlighted ongoing regulatory and legal pressure in Australia and Europe and Macquarie’s recent exit from the Net Zero Banking Alliance as it recalibrates its climate‑related commitments. [15]
Dividend, DRP pricing and the extended share buyback
Income remains a central part of the Macquarie investment case.
In conjunction with the 1H26 result, the board declared an interim ordinary dividend of A$2.80 per share (35% franked), up from A$2.60 a year earlier and below the A$3.90 final dividend for 2H25. The payout ratio sits at 64% – within the group’s 50–70% target range. The record date was 18 November and the dividend is scheduled to be paid on 17 December 2025. [16]
Macquarie also extended its on‑market share buyback of up to A$2 billion for another 12 months, citing its strong capital position. As at 6 November, the group had bought back about A$1,013 million of stock at an average price of A$189.80 per share. [17]
A short update published today notes that shares to satisfy the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) for the interim dividend are being allocated at around A$195.34 per share, broadly in line with the prevailing market price. [18] Together with a trailing DPS of A$6.70 and today’s share price just under A$200, Macquarie is offering a historic cash yield of roughly 3–3.5%, before franking credits. [19]
Strategic reshaping: Qube bid, Nomura deal and the Aligned sale
Qube takeover bid – deepening the logistics footprint
One of the biggest swing factors for Macquarie’s medium‑term earnings is its proposed acquisition of Qube Holdings via Macquarie Asset Management.
On 24 November, Qube disclosed that it had received a cash offer of A$5.20 per share from MAM, implying an enterprise value of about A$11.6 billion, including roughly A$2.3 billion of debt. The offer represents a 27.8% premium to Qube’s previous close; Qube’s shares jumped nearly 20% to a record A$4.89 on the news. Macquarie has been granted exclusivity until 1 February 2026 to conduct due diligence and finalise a binding bid. [20]
Qube owns ports, intermodal terminals and bulk facilities across Australia, and the deal would significantly deepen Macquarie’s exposure to long‑duration logistics infrastructure – a sector that often supports fee‑based income and stable cash yields that can underpin asset‑management performance fees. [21]
Recent analysis pieces aimed at ASX investors frame the Qube bid as a core pillar of Macquarie’s 2026 outlook, with successful execution seen as a potential driver of more stable, infrastructure‑linked earnings but with clear risks if the group overpays or if logistics valuations normalise. TS2 Tech+1
Nomura transaction – exiting public equities, doubling down on private markets
At the same time, Macquarie is significantly reshaping its asset‑management platform.
Back in April 2025, Macquarie and Nomura announced an agreement for Nomura to acquire Macquarie Asset Management’s US and European public investments business, managing about A$285 billion (roughly US$180 billion) in assets across equities, fixed income and multi‑asset strategies. [22]
That deal completed on 1 December 2025, with Nomura confirming a purchase price of around US$1.8 billion. The acquired unit is being folded into Nomura Asset Management to create a larger global platform. [23]
Crucially, the transaction includes a strategic partnership under which Nomura will distribute select Macquarie private funds to US high‑net‑worth and family‑office clients, and the two firms will co‑develop new investment strategies for investors in the US and Japan. [24]
For Macquarie, the sale crystallises value in a mature public‑markets franchise and further tilts the group towards higher‑margin private markets, infrastructure and alternatives, consistent with its commentary about focusing on areas with structural growth tailwinds. [25]
Aligned Data Centers sale – recycling capital in the AI build‑out
The Nomura deal follows another headline transaction: the sale of Aligned Data Centers.
In October, Macquarie Asset Management agreed to sell Aligned – one of the world’s largest data‑centre operators – in a US$40 billion enterprise‑value deal to an investor group including BlackRock, Microsoft and Nvidia. Macquarie’s funds held about 50% of Aligned, with co‑investors holding another 20%. [26]
The sale triggered a 5.1% jump in Macquarie’s share price on the day, to A$229, and Reuters reported that MAM sees this not as a call on the peak of the AI/data‑centre cycle but as disciplined capital recycling in a sector where it still plans substantial investment, including a separate commitment of up to US$5 billion alongside Applied Digital for new high‑performance computing facilities. [27]
Taken together – the Qube proposal, the completed Nomura sale and the Aligned exit – analysts view Macquarie as accelerating a pivot towards capital‑light fee income from infrastructure and private markets, funded by recycling from lower‑growth franchises and balance‑sheet‑intensive businesses. TS2 Tech+2TS2 Tech+2
Governance and regulatory overhang
Despite its strong strategic positioning, Macquarie faces a cluster of governance and regulatory issues that continue to influence sentiment.
Reuters’ coverage of the half‑year results highlighted:
- A A$321 million remediation program for investors in the collapsed Shield Master Fund, sold via one of Macquarie’s platforms.
- Intensifying engagement with Australian regulators over product‑governance and trading‑related matters. [28]
In parallel, Macquarie received a “first strike” on executive pay at its 2025 AGM, with more than 25% of shareholders voting against the remuneration report – crossing the threshold that would allow investors to call for a board spill if a second strike occurs next year. [29]
Reuters Breakingviews argues that shareholders are “living in the past”, pointing out that:
- Annualised ROE has slipped to around 9.6%, far below the high‑teens returns Macquarie delivered earlier in the decade. [30]
- Consensus forecasts do not expect returns to exceed roughly 13% in the next couple of years. [31]
- Yet the stock still trades at more than 2x forecast book value, a multiple that assumes a return to those higher historic profitability levels. [32]
Reports in the financial press also note ongoing legal actions in Europe and Australia and Macquarie’s departure from the Net Zero Banking Alliance, feeding a narrative of heightened ESG and compliance risk even as the group remains heavily invested in energy‑transition assets. [33]
This combination – an excellent franchise with lower but still solid returns, priced at a premium and under regulatory scrutiny – is central to the debate about how much investors should pay for Macquarie today.
What analysts and models are saying now
Earnings and revenue forecasts
Data collated by Simply Wall St suggests that, on average, analysts expect Macquarie’s earnings to grow about 9.7% per year over the next few years, with revenue rising roughly 5.5% annually and EPS increasing about 9.4% per year. Return on equity is forecast to recover towards 12–13% within three years. [34]
A recent Yahoo/Refinitiv consensus snapshot, based on 11 covering analysts, indicates projected FY26 revenue of around A$18.5 billion, modestly above the trailing 12‑month level. Reuters notes that the current consensus for full‑year net profit sits near A$4.2 billion, implying a meaningful step up from 1H26’s A$1.66 billion if the second half improves as expected. [35]
Price targets: clustered upside, but not a screaming bargain
Across multiple platforms, 12‑month price targets are remarkably tight:
- TipRanks reports an average target around A$223.95, based on eight analyst ratings, with an overall consensus rating of “Hold”. [36]
- Moomoo’s aggregation shows an average target of A$224.48, with estimates generally clustered between A$200 and A$255. [37]
- Simply Wall St and TS2’s synthesis of broker data point to a consensus target of roughly A$224–225. TS2 Tech+1
- TradingView cites an average target of A$230.69, with a low of A$200 and a high around A$265. [38]
- Yahoo’s post‑result analysis notes that brokers recently reaffirmed a target near A$225 after digesting the 1H26 numbers. [39]
- Fintel’s summary of analyst models shows an even higher average one‑year target of about A$233.91, with a low around A$202.57 and a high near A$267.75. [40]
Relative to today’s A$195–196 price, these target ranges imply mid‑teens percentage upside on average, with outliers suggesting potential gains above 20% if everything goes right – but they also reflect that Macquarie is already priced more richly than many global financials.
Quant and technical views
Short‑term trading models are more cautious than the fundamental analysts:
- StockInvest’s technical assessment recently upgraded Macquarie from “Sell” to a “Hold candidate”, describing the stock as having several positive signals but not enough momentum for a clean buy rating at current levels. [41]
- Meyka’s technical dashboard characterises the trend as “Bearish” overall, with strong trend strength (ADX close to 40) but an oversold RSI in the high‑20s and key support/resistance bands between roughly A$186 and A$232. [42]
The blend of signals boils down to: fundamentals pointing to steady, mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit growth and modest upside, while near‑term price action remains choppy and vulnerable to macro news, regulatory developments and deal headlines.
Key themes and risks for Macquarie shareholders heading into 2026
Looking beyond today’s snapshot, several major themes are likely to drive Macquarie’s share price through 2026:
1. Execution on big deals and capital recycling
Macquarie’s ability to close and integrate the Qube acquisition on attractive terms, while continuing to recycle capital from mature assets like Aligned into new infrastructure and digital platforms, will be a core determinant of whether it can lift ROE back into the low‑teens. [43]
The Nomura transaction frees up resources and management attention from a low‑margin public‑markets business and deepens distribution for Macquarie’s private funds – but it also shrinks fee income from traditional listed assets. The net effect on profitability and volatility will only become clear over the next several reporting periods. [44]
2. Mortgage and deposit growth versus margins
In Australia, Macquarie has quietly built a 6.5% share of the mortgage market, up from 3.5% five years ago, and grown deposits to nearly A$199 billion. [45] Maintaining that expansion while preserving net interest margins in a highly competitive banking landscape is a major swing factor for BFS earnings – especially if interest rates fall and deposit pricing comes under pressure. [46]
3. Volatility in commodities and capital markets
Macquarie’s commodities and trading businesses have historically been a powerful profit engine, but the latest half shows how quickly earnings can normalise when volatility fades. Unless commodity markets experience renewed dislocation, consensus expects only modest improvement from CGM, leaving more of the heavy lifting to asset management, lending and advisory. [47]
4. Regulatory and ESG trajectory
Ongoing remediation, legal cases and governance debates – including the Shield Master Fund settlement and the remuneration “first strike” – inject uncertainty and may justify a governance risk premium in Macquarie’s valuation multiple. [48] How credibly Macquarie demonstrates progress on compliance, culture and climate strategy will influence both regulatory outcomes and investor appetite, particularly among ESG‑sensitive institutions.
5. Valuation sensitivity
With the stock trading at roughly 20x trailing earnings and more than 2x book, while ROE sits below 10% and analysts only forecast a gradual climb towards the low‑teens, Macquarie is not obviously cheap on traditional bank or asset‑manager metrics. [49]
That valuation can be justified if:
- the Qube deal and other infrastructure investments deliver durable fee and investment income,
- Nomura‑linked distribution drives strong private‑markets fundraising, and
- returns recover towards the levels implied in consensus forecasts.
But it also means that any disappointment in earnings, deals or regulatory outcomes could trigger a meaningful de‑rating, especially if global financials fall out of favour.
Bottom line
As of 4 December 2025, Macquarie Group sits in a familiar but uncomfortable position: a premium franchise with strong strategic options, trading on a premium multiple, but with returns and headline risk that look more pedestrian than in its glory days.
The combination of a 3–3.5% fully franked yield, a sizeable ongoing buyback, mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and substantial exposure to long‑dated infrastructure and private markets continues to appeal to many long‑term investors. At the same time, softer ROE, volatile trading income and a busy regulatory agenda are clear counterweights to the bullish case.
References
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