December 26, 2025
Macquarie Group Limited—often called Australia’s “millionaires factory” for its investment-banking pedigree and performance-linked culture—heads into the final week of 2025 with investors balancing three big forces: a diversified earnings engine that can shine when markets and dealmaking cooperate, a regulatory headline cycle that refuses to fully go away, and a set of analyst forecasts that still imply upside—just not the kind that comes without footnotes.
As of Dec. 26, 2025, Macquarie Group shares are quoted around A$205.03, reflecting the most recent close from Dec. 24 (with local market holidays affecting trading days). [1]
Macquarie share price today: where MQG stock stands on Dec. 26, 2025
Macquarie Group (ASX: MQG) is sitting near A$205 at the end of the year, within a 52-week range of roughly A$160 to A$242.90. [2]
On a calendar-year view, 2025 has been choppy: data providers tracking “This Year (2025)” performance show Macquarie’s shares down about 6–7% year-to-date, after swinging from a high near A$242.90 to a low around A$160. [3]
That “range” matters with Macquarie more than many banks. Unlike a plain-vanilla lender whose narrative is mostly margins and credit losses, MQG’s market identity is built around a portfolio of businesses—asset management, retail and business banking, commodities and markets, plus advisory and principal investing—whose earnings can rotate quickly depending on volatility, deal flow, and exits.
The headline that mattered most in December: Macquarie’s ASIC settlement path
The most market-moving Australia-focused development this month has been regulatory.
On Dec. 19, 2025, Macquarie noted an agreement reached with Australia’s corporate regulator, ASIC, to resolve civil proceedings related primarily to short sale transaction reporting by its securities unit, Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited (MSAL). The parties agreed to submit to the court that A$35 million is an appropriate civil penalty, subject to court approval. [4]
ASIC’s own announcement is blunter on the underlying conduct: MSAL admitted misleading conduct relating to misreporting millions of short sales over several years and acknowledged it failed to correctly report at least 73 million short sales between Dec. 11, 2009 and Feb. 14, 2024, with ASIC estimating total misreporting in a much wider band. [5]
Reuters reported the penalty amount and the time span of the alleged misreporting, and also captured the market’s immediate shrug: one analyst quoted described the fine as not material relative to Macquarie’s scale and profitability, with investor attention staying more focused on the macro backdrop and core banking and markets drivers. [6]
Macquarie, for its part, said MSAL had remediated the deficiencies with additional controls and emphasized its approach of reporting issues, engaging with regulators, fixing problems, and applying learnings across the group. [7]
What it means for MQG stock: This is the kind of story that rarely “breaks” a diversified financial in one day, but it can quietly tax valuation through a higher perceived governance and compliance risk premium—especially when shareholders are already sensitive to pay and risk culture.
That sensitivity showed up earlier this year at Macquarie’s AGM, where more than 25% of shareholders voted against the remuneration report (a “first strike” under Australia’s rules), reflecting broader investor frustration with risk and regulatory issues. [8]
A second major December catalyst: Macquarie completes the Nomura sale
While the ASIC matter speaks to risk control, Macquarie’s other notable late-2025 corporate milestone was strategic.
Macquarie announced it completed the sale of Macquarie Asset Management’s public investments business in North America and Europe to Nomura for approximately A$2.8 billion, with the completion dated Dec. 1, 2025. [9]
Nomura also published deal-completion disclosures and news releases confirming the acquisition completion around the same date. [10]
Why this matters for MQG investors: This transaction sharpens Macquarie Asset Management’s focus toward private markets and frees up capital—one of the recurring themes in Macquarie’s communications: rotate the portfolio, realize value, and re-deploy where long-term tailwinds (and fee pools) look strongest.
Earnings reality check: Macquarie’s 1H26 results were strong in parts—and soft where it hurts sentiment
Macquarie’s latest detailed financial snapshot is the half-year ended Sept. 30, 2025 (1H26), released Nov. 7, 2025.
Key topline takeaways:
- Net profit:A$1,655 million (up 3% vs 1H25, down 21% vs 2H25) [11]
- Assets under management:A$959.1 billion at Sept. 30, 2025 (up 5% year-on-year) [12]
- Group capital surplus:A$7.6 billion; bank CET1 ratio 12.4% (harmonised 17.3%) [13]
- Interim dividend:A$2.80 per share (35% franked), payout ratio 64% [14]
The interesting part for Macquarie stock isn’t just the headline profit—it’s where it came from:
- Macquarie Asset Management (MAM): net profit contribution A$1,175m, up 43%, largely driven by higher performance fees. [15]
- Banking and Financial Services (BFS):A$793m, up 22%, supported by loan and deposit growth but partially offset by margin compression and higher tech expenses. [16]
- Commodities and Global Markets (CGM):A$1,113m, down 15%, with higher expenses, remediation-related spend and transaction costs highlighted in the release. [17]
- Macquarie Capital:A$711m, up 92%, reflecting stronger M&A/brokerage fees and private credit income. [18]
The market’s emotional center of gravity tends to be CGM. When Macquarie’s “linchpin” commodities unit underperforms, investors worry about whether the group’s most famous earnings lever is losing its torque. A Financial Times report on the half-year period highlighted that the shares fell after results missed expectations, with softer commodities performance and an impairment tied to green investments adding to the caution. [19]
Dividends, franking, and what Macquarie is signaling to shareholders
Macquarie’s dividend profile is part of the MQG stock story because it’s a signal about confidence in capital generation—and about how management balances growth investment against returning cash.
For 1H26, Macquarie declared an interim dividend of A$2.80 per share (35% franked), with an ex-dividend date of Nov. 17, 2025 and payment date of Dec. 17, 2025. [20]
Macquarie has also kept buybacks in the toolkit. In its AGM and first-quarter FY26 update (released in July 2025), the company referenced an extension of an on-market share buyback of up to A$2 billion and provided progress figures as of late July 2025. [21]
Investor implication: MQG’s capital returns aren’t designed to be a boring “set and forget” yield play. They’re opportunistic—and that makes them sensitive to market conditions and management’s confidence in the opportunity set.
Leadership and governance: CFO transition and board refresh
Another thread investors watch in Macquarie stock is leadership continuity—because so much of Macquarie’s model relies on risk culture, incentives, and tight execution across global business lines.
Macquarie disclosed that CFO Alex Harvey would step down effective Dec. 31, 2025, with an intended retirement in mid-2026 after an extended handover. Frank Kwok, a long-tenured executive and then deputy CFO, was named as successor effective Jan. 1, 2026 (subject to approvals). [22]
On the governance side, Macquarie announced the appointment of William Vereker as an independent non-executive director, effective Feb. 1, 2026, as part of ongoing board renewal. [23]
These shifts land at an awkwardly relevant time: the ASIC settlement storyline is fresh, and investors are primed to judge whether governance changes translate into fewer compliance surprises.
Analyst forecasts for Macquarie stock: price targets point to modest upside, but dispersion is real
Forecasting Macquarie is a little like forecasting weather over the ocean: you can model it, but chaos always keeps a seat at the table.
Still, analyst consensus is meaningfully positive as of late December:
- Investing.com’s compiled analyst view shows an average 12-month price target around A$224.87, with estimates ranging roughly from A$200 to A$255 and an overall consensus rating described as Buy (with a mix of buy/hold/sell calls). [24]
- TradingView lists an analyst price target near A$231.10, with a broader published range that runs up to about A$264.98 on the high end (and roughly A$200 on the low end). [25]
- Fintel’s aggregated data shows an average one‑year target in the mid‑A$230s, with a wider low/high spread. [26]
With MQG near A$205, those targets translate to something like high-single-digit to mid‑teens upside on paper, depending on which dataset you use. [27]
Why price targets differ for MQG
Three reasons show up again and again:
- Earnings volatility: CGM can swing materially depending on commodities conditions, client hedging activity, and volatility regimes.
- Private markets timing: Performance fees and asset realizations can be lumpy—great when exits happen, quiet when capital markets slam the window shut. [28]
- Risk premium and regulation: Even when the dollars are “not material,” governance headlines can change the multiple investors are willing to pay. [29]
Bull case vs. bear case for Macquarie Group shares in 2026
This isn’t investment advice—just a map of the arguments sophisticated investors are likely to be running internally.
The bull case for MQG stock
Macquarie’s optimistic narrative is basically: diversification plus optionality.
- Performance fees and private credit momentum can lift asset management and Macquarie Capital contributions when markets cooperate. [30]
- Banking and Financial Services has been growing deposits and loans, providing a steadier earnings foundation even when markets revenue is uneven. [31]
- Strategic moves like the Nomura sale completion refine the group’s focus and can recycle capital toward higher-growth areas. [32]
- Forward-looking growth expectations (from analyst-forecast compilers) still assume mid-to-high single digit earnings and revenue growth over time. [33]
The bear case for MQG stock
Macquarie’s skeptics usually point to “the three R’s”: rates, realizations, and regulation.
- If commodities and global markets conditions stay subdued, CGM can under-deliver, dragging group sentiment (and the valuation multiple) even if other divisions perform. [34]
- Private market exits can slow if macro conditions tighten or buyers turn cautious—reducing the “pop” from realizations and performance fees. [35]
- Regulatory matters can keep resurfacing. The ASIC penalty may be moving toward resolution, but the reputational and governance discussion can linger well beyond a single court outcome. [36]
What to watch next for Macquarie Group stock
As MQG stock enters 2026, the near-term watchlist is less about a single magic number and more about whether the story stabilizes:
- Court approval and finalization of the ASIC-related penalty and orders (and whether any additional remediation costs emerge). [37]
- Post-Nomura-sale clarity: how Macquarie redeploys capital and how the reshaped MAM profile affects fee mix and growth rates. [38]
- Leadership transition execution as the CFO role changes hands at year-end. [39]
- CGM performance trend: whether the commodities and markets engine re-accelerates—or remains the recurring “yes, but” in the MQG narrative. [40]
Bottom line: Macquarie stock ends 2025 with upside potential—and plenty to prove
Macquarie Group’s share price around A$205 reflects a market that still respects the firm’s diversified earnings machine, dividend capacity, and deal-making DNA—but also demands evidence that governance and compliance issues are being handled with the same intensity Macquarie applies to finding profit pools. [41]
Analyst price targets generally sit above the current trading level, but the implied upside is measured, not moonshot. That’s consistent with a stock where the “base case” depends on steady banking performance, episodic private market wins, and a commodities division that can’t afford too many quiet quarters in a row. [42]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 4. www.macquarie.com, 5. www.asic.gov.au, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.macquarie.com, 8. www.theguardian.com, 9. www.macquarie.com, 10. www.nomuraholdings.com, 11. www.macquarie.com, 12. www.macquarie.com, 13. www.macquarie.com, 14. www.macquarie.com, 15. www.macquarie.com, 16. www.macquarie.com, 17. www.macquarie.com, 18. www.macquarie.com, 19. www.ft.com, 20. www.macquarie.com, 21. www.macquarie.com, 22. www.macquarie.com, 23. www.macquarie.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.tradingview.com, 26. fintel.io, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.macquarie.com, 29. www.asic.gov.au, 30. www.macquarie.com, 31. www.macquarie.com, 32. www.macquarie.com, 33. simplywall.st, 34. www.macquarie.com, 35. www.macquarie.com, 36. www.asic.gov.au, 37. www.asic.gov.au, 38. www.macquarie.com, 39. www.macquarie.com, 40. www.macquarie.com, 41. www.macquarie.com, 42. www.investing.com
