Sydney, March 3, 2026, 17:00 (AEDT) — Trading wraps up after-hours.
- Macquarie shares slipped further, with investors reacting to a new oil shock and rising market volatility.
- Oil extended its rally into a third straight session as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions kept inflation worries simmering.
- Attention now turns to risk sentiment for the coming session, with Macquarie’s May results schedule on watch.
Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG.AX) slid 1.6% to close at A$196.71 on Tuesday, adding to Monday’s sharp 6.4% loss. The stock moved between A$195.80 and A$202.42 for the day, with roughly 711,000 shares traded.
Sydney stocks took a hit, with the S&P/ASX 200 ending down 1.34%. Volatility picked up: the S&P/ASX 200 VIX jumped 8.15% to 14.05, a level not seen in three months.
Oil grabbed the spotlight. Brent crude climbed 2.2% to $79.44 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate advanced 1.6%, settling at $72.40—a move driven by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran ratcheting up worries over supply. Roughly a fifth of global oil and gas moves through the Strait of Hormuz. “No quick de-escalation in sight … upside risks remain,” IG’s Tony Sycamore said. Reuters
Macquarie CEO Shemara Wikramanayake sees the conflict putting pressure on both oil supply and prices. “There is going to be a deliverability issue there,” she said, using the term traders rely on for the logistical headaches that come up when shipping lanes or insurance get knocked off course. Macquarie ranks among the largest oil and gas traders globally. Reuters
Markets kept a cautious tone. The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index dropped 1.5%, while the dollar stuck close to its six-week peak, as investors tried to figure out if rising energy prices would push up inflation and shape rate bets. “Economic policy uncertainty was already elevated and now with the Iran conflict, the geopolitical risk is expected to rise too,” said Bernstein’s Rupal Agarwal. Reuters
Tuesday’s company diary was thin, and with no fresh ASX statements out of Macquarie, the stock simply moved with the broader market.
Macquarie sits in a tricky spot. Its reach covers asset management, banking, a markets unit offering risk management, market access, physical execution, logistics, and an investment banking operation. When clients scramble to hedge, that breadth can play in its favor. But the same mix can turn on the stock fast if sentiment sours.
Contingency plans are now in play. JPMorgan and Citigroup have told certain staffers in the Middle East to stay home, according to people with direct knowledge cited by Reuters. The move underscores just how fast cross-border operations can falter if travel or infrastructure face pressure.
MQG holders are watching to see if the oil shock morphs into stubborn inflation. Rising fuel and freight expenses threaten to eat into company margins, leaving central banks wary—a setup that usually drags on financial stock valuations.
The downside scenario isn’t clean. Volatility that spills over into funding pressures or a deeper chill for dealmaking could easily erase gains for trading desks—thanks to slumping underwriting, advisory, and asset realization revenues. On the flipside, a rapid de-escalation flips the script: oil prices could slide, taking the volatility premium with them.
Macquarie’s full-year results drop Friday, May 8. That’s the next big date circled by investors. The ex-dividend date looms close behind, set for May 18, when shares lose the right to the upcoming payout.
