Maduro captured in U.S. strike: what happens next for Venezuela’s oil, politics and markets

Maduro captured in U.S. strike: what happens next for Venezuela’s oil, politics and markets

WASHINGTON, January 4, 2026, 12:47 ET

  • PDVSA is asking some joint ventures to curb crude output as exports stall under a U.S. tanker blockade.  Reuters
  • A Venezuelan court ordered Vice President Delcy Rodriguez to serve as interim president; Maduro is due in Manhattan court on Monday.  Reuters
  • OPEC+ held output policy steady and investors braced for higher headline risk when markets reopen.  Reuters

Venezuela’s state-run oil company PDVSA has asked several joint ventures to curb crude production as exports grind to a halt under a U.S. tanker blockade, three people close to the decision said on Sunday. The move adds pressure to an interim administration in Caracas after U.S. forces captured President Nicolas Maduro and flew him to New York to face drug charges, U.S. officials said.  Reuters

Oil exports are Venezuela’s main source of hard currency, and PDVSA’s partners include Chevron and China’s CNPC, turning the disruption into a test of whether Washington can translate Saturday’s strike into leverage over the economy. Trump said an oil embargo was in full force, and shipping data showed even Chevron-linked cargoes that had been moving under a U.S. license have not left Venezuelan waters since Thursday.  Reuters

The seizure of Maduro is Washington’s most direct intervention in Latin America since the 1989 invasion of Panama, and it has drawn condemnation from regional governments and the United Nations as a breach of international law. France’s Emmanuel Macron said he hoped Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, whom he described as the winner of Venezuela’s 2024 election, would lead a quick transition, while South Africa urged the U.N. Security Council to convene. Investors said the episode adds fresh geopolitical risk as global markets head into the first full trading week of 2026.  Reuters

Trump said the United States would place Venezuela under temporary American control until what he called a safe transition, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth overseeing the effort. He also ruled out working with opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, according to Reuters.  Reuters

In Caracas, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez appeared on state television describing Maduro’s removal as a kidnapping and demanding his return, before a Venezuelan court ordered her to assume the role of interim president. Defense Minister General Vladimir Padrino said much of Maduro’s security detail had been killed in the U.S. raid and that the armed forces had been activated nationwide.  Reuters

Two sources with knowledge of PDVSA’s operations said oil production and refining were operating normally and suffered no damage from the U.S. strike. Exports are now paralyzed because port captains have not received requests to authorize loaded ships to depart, sources close to operations said. No tankers were loading at Jose, the main oil port, and PDVSA is running short of diluents — lighter oils used to thin heavy crude for shipment — as it begins ordering some joint ventures to cut output.  Reuters

The cutback requests were sent to ventures including CNPC’s Petrolera Sinovensa and Chevron projects such as Petropiar and Petroboscan, the sources said. Venezuela exported about 950,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, but the U.S. measures knocked that down to around 500,000 bpd last month, preliminary ship-tracking figures showed.  Reuters

Chevron is the only U.S. oil major currently operating in Venezuela, under an authorization from Washington that limits payments to the Maduro administration. Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips have long-running disputes tied to past nationalizations, and analysts said any broader return of Western oil companies would hinge on security and clear rules on sanctions and contracts.  Reuters

Maduro is expected to make an initial appearance in Manhattan federal court on Monday on charges that include a narco-terrorism conspiracy, according to a Justice Department official. His wife, Cilia Flores, also faces charges, including a cocaine importation conspiracy, the official said.  Reuters

But Trump has not explained how Washington would run a country whose government and military are still functioning, and Rodriguez’s camp has signaled it will not cooperate. “A botched political transition that has a feeling of U.S. dominance can lead to years of resistance,” said Thomas O’Donnell, an energy and geopolitical strategist. Traders will watch Monday’s court hearing for Maduro’s next legal steps and look ahead to OPEC+ — the alliance of OPEC and other producers including Russia that pumps about half the world’s oil — which is next due to meet on Feb. 1 after keeping output policy steady on Sunday.  Reuters

Stock Market Today

  • Raymond James Financial appears undervalued after multi-year rally, intrinsic value around $223 vs $169 price
    January 6, 2026, 9:12 PM EST. Raymond James Financial is at $168.86, with moves of 3.9% in 7 days, 3.5% in 30 days, and 3.2% year-to-date. Over 1 year the stock is up 7.6%, 3 years 59.0%, and 5 years 162.6%. A valuation screen rates RJF 5 of 6 for potential undervaluation. The Excess Returns model yields an intrinsic value near $222.88 per share, based on a book value of $62.70, a stable EPS (earnings per share) of $14.06, and an average ROE (return on equity) of 20.18% against a cost of equity of $5.96. It implies an excess return of $8.10 and a Stable Book Value of $69.68. At current levels, that implies roughly a 24.2% discount to the price. The note also cites the P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio as a quick measure of value.
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