New York, Feb 10, 2026, 10:21 EST — Regular session
- Marriott shares rose sharply after quarterly results and a fresh 2026 outlook
- Management pointed to a split in demand, with luxury outpacing lower-priced stays
- Investors are watching peer updates this week for clues on hotel pricing power
Marriott International shares were up 9.1% at $361.37 on Tuesday morning, after the hotel operator reported quarterly results and issued its 2026 forecast. The stock traded as high as $363.47 earlier in the session.
The update lands in the middle of earnings season, when investors are trying to judge whether travel demand is bending or breaking as the economy sends mixed signals. Hotels have leaned on higher-end leisure spending for rate growth, but the lower end has started to look less steady.
Marriott matters here because its portfolio runs from luxury to select-service, and its fee-heavy model throws off cash when rooms and rates rise across the system. If the soft patch is mostly in budget travel, the industry can live with that. If it spreads, the tone on 2026 changes fast.
In its earnings release, Marriott said fourth-quarter 2025 RevPAR — revenue per available room, a key hotel metric combining room rates and occupancy — rose 1.9% worldwide, driven by a 6.1% rise in international markets, while the U.S. and Canada slipped 0.1%. Chief executive Anthony Capuano said U.S. and Canada performance was “roughly flat” as an extended U.S. government shutdown hit business transient travel, and he said luxury hotels “continued to outperform.” Marriott forecast 2026 worldwide RevPAR growth of 1.5% to 2.5%, projected net rooms growth of 4.5% to 5% and targeted more than $4.3 billion in capital returns, as it pointed to a record pipeline of about 4,100 properties with nearly 610,000 rooms. 1
Still, the company’s room revenue outlook is not as clean as the stock reaction suggests. Marriott said its U.S. select-service segment, which caters to more budget-conscious travelers, saw room revenue fall 1.8% in the quarter, while its domestic luxury segment rose 4.9%. Analysts on average expected 2026 RevPAR growth of about 2.3%, LSEG data showed, versus Marriott’s 1.5% to 2.5% range; adjusted profit was $2.58 per share on revenue of $6.69 billion, missing earnings expectations but beating revenue estimates. 2
The bounce in the shares points to relief that the story did not get worse, and that Marriott can keep returning cash even with slower U.S. room growth at the lower end. Investors are also betting the development pipeline keeps fees moving higher, even if room demand is uneven.
On a conference call, Capuano told analysts the company expects adjusted diluted earnings per share to grow 13% to 15% in 2026 and said the World Cup should add about 30 to 35 basis points — hundredths of a percentage point — to global RevPAR. He said the outlook assumes a “relatively steady macroeconomic environment” and does not reflect any impact from talks to renegotiate U.S. co-branded credit card deals, which he said Marriott expects to have in place later in the year. Finance chief Leenie Oberg called the projected 4.5% to 5% net rooms growth “organic.” 3
But the downside case is easy to sketch: if the trade-down deepens and the budget customer cuts trips further, pressure could creep up the chain and make rate increases harder to hold. A government shutdown that drags on would also keep a lid on business travel, while the credit-card negotiations could move fee income and timing around in ways guidance does not yet capture.
Next up for the group is another set of readouts on hotel demand and pricing: Hilton Worldwide is scheduled to report quarterly results on Feb. 11, followed by Hyatt Hotels on Feb. 12. Traders will be watching whether their RevPAR comments echo Marriott’s split between luxury strength and softer budget demand. 4
