Marvell Technology (MRVL) Stock: Celestial AI Deal Rumors, Q3 Earnings Preview and Analyst Targets as of December 2, 2025

Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) is back in the spotlight. The AI‑focused chipmaker is trading around $93 per share on December 2, 2025, up a little over 2% intraday, as investors digest multi‑billion‑dollar M&A chatter, a high‑growth earnings setup, and fresh analyst upgrades. ^[1]

A Reuters report says Marvell is in advanced talks to acquire photonics startup Celestial AI in a cash‑and‑stock deal that could be worth more than $5 billion, potentially as soon as this week. ^[2] At the same time, Wall Street is gearing up for Marvell’s Q3 fiscal 2026 results, scheduled for release after today’s close, followed by a conference call at 1:45 p.m. Pacific Time. ^[3]

Layered on top of that, Marvell has just expanded its Microsoft Azure security partnership in Europe, is coming off a record Q2 with 58% revenue growth, and has authorized a $5 billion share repurchase plus an ongoing dividend, reinforcing its role as a key AI infrastructure stock going into 2026. ^[4]

Note: All figures and commentary are current as of mid‑day on December 2, 2025. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.

MRVL stock today: price, valuation and sentiment snapshot

As of early afternoon UTC, Marvell shares trade near $93.06, with an intraday range of about $91.9–$93.8 and a market capitalization in the high‑$70 billion range. ^[5]

Recent analysis from MarketBeat notes that yesterday (December 1) the stock closed around $91.10, up 1.9%, with a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target near $94–95. ^[6]

Valuation remains rich:

Forward P/E: roughly high‑20s to low‑30s, depending on the data source. ^[7]
Price‑to‑sales (P/S): around 11x. ^[8]
Price‑to‑book (P/B): around 5.8–5.9x. ^[9]
Beta: about 2.2, meaning the stock tends to move more than twice as much as the broader market. ^[10]

In other words, Marvell is trading like a high‑octane AI growth name: expensive versus the average semiconductor stock, but with earnings expected to ramp sharply over the next year.

Celestial AI rumors: a multi‑billion dollar bet on photonics

The biggest headline on December 2 involves Celestial AI. According to Reuters, Marvell is in advanced talks to buy the startup in a cash‑and‑stock deal that could exceed $5 billion including milestone‑based earnouts, with an announcement possible as soon as today. ^[11]

Key details from that report:

Celestial AI builds photonics‑based interconnects that use light instead of electrical signals to link AI compute chips to memory, aiming to ease bandwidth bottlenecks in large AI systems. ^[12]
The company has raised about $515 million to date and counts AMD‑linked investment and seasoned industry figure Lip‑Bu Tan on its cap table and board. ^[13]
Reuters notes that a successful deal would “strengthen Marvell’s portfolio” and underline the ongoing race to feed AI compute demand at hyperscalers. ^[14]

From a strategic standpoint, such an acquisition would:

Deepen Marvell’s AI stack: Marvell already sells custom AI silicon, optical DSPs and high‑speed interconnects into cloud data centers. Adding Celestial’s photonics technology would extend its reach into the memory‑to‑compute fabric that sits at the heart of large AI clusters. ^[15]
Boost competitiveness vs. Broadcom and others: Photonic interconnects are becoming a key differentiator for hyperscale AI deployments. The deal could help Marvell compete more directly with rivals targeting advanced networking and AI systems. ^[16]

But it would also raise real questions:

Price tag – A price north of $5 billion is meaningful even for a company with a roughly $78 billion market cap, especially given Celestial AI is still private and early in its revenue ramp. ^[17]
Integration and execution risk – Folding a fast‑moving startup into a large public company while simultaneously scaling custom AI ASIC and optics businesses is non‑trivial.
Dilution and balance sheet impact – Depending on the mix of cash vs. stock, shareholders could see either leverage rise or ownership diluted.

Right now the deal is not yet confirmed; both Marvell and Celestial AI declined to comment to Reuters. ^[18] Investors will be listening closely on tonight’s earnings call for any update.

Microsoft Azure partnership: expanding secure cloud revenues

While the Celestial AI story grabs the headlines, Marvell is also quietly reinforcing its cloud security franchise.

On December 1, the company announced that Microsoft has expanded its use of Marvell’s LiquidSecurity hardware security modules (HSMs), bringing Azure cloud‑based security services to Europe on top of existing deployments in Asia and North America. ^[19]

Highlights from the press release:

LiquidSecurity HSMs power Azure Key Vault, Managed HSM and Cloud HSM services, enabling secure key management and digital identity capabilities for government, enterprise and sovereign cloud customers. ^[20]
The hardware recently earned eIDAS and Common Criteria EAL4+ certifications, both important for European digital identity and trust services. ^[21]
A single LiquidSecurity 2 adapter can handle up to one million encryption keys and roughly one million operations per second, while using far less power and rack space than traditional HSM appliances. ^[22]

For investors, this matters because it shows Marvell isn’t just an “AI chips” pure‑play; it also sells sticky, compliance‑driven security infrastructure that can translate into recurring cloud revenue and deeper relationships with hyperscalers like Microsoft.

Record Q2 FY26: AI demand is driving the numbers

Marvell’s most recently reported quarter — Q2 fiscal 2026, which ended August 2, 2025 — set a new revenue record and reset expectations for the AI cycle.

According to the company’s August 28 earnings release: ^[23]

Net revenue was about $2.006 billion, up 58% year‑over‑year.
GAAP EPS came in at $0.22, while non‑GAAP EPS was $0.67.
Non‑GAAP gross margin was just under 60%, and revenue slightly exceeded the midpoint of guidance.

CEO Matt Murphy highlighted that growth was being “fueled by strong AI demand” for custom silicon and electro‑optics, alongside a faster‑than‑expected recovery in enterprise networking and carrier infrastructure. He also noted that Marvell’s custom AI design activity is at an all‑time high, with the team engaged in more than 50 new opportunities across over 10 customers. ^[24]

Crucially, management issued bullish guidance for Q3 FY26 at that time:

Q3 revenue guidance: about $2.06 billion ±5%.
Non‑GAAP EPS guidance: about $0.74 ±$0.05.
GAAP EPS guidance: roughly $2.03 ±$0.05, boosted by the divestiture of the Automotive Ethernet business in August. ^[25]

Those are the numbers Wall Street is now using as a baseline for tonight’s earnings print.

Q3 FY26 earnings preview: what Wall Street expects tonight

Ahead of the Q3 report, consensus expectations have clustered tightly around management’s guidance — but with a slightly more optimistic tilt.

Recent previews from Zacks, Benzinga and GuruFocus point to: ^[26]

Non‑GAAP EPS: about $0.74–$0.75, up roughly 70–75% year‑over‑year from around $0.43.
Revenue: about $2.06–$2.07 billion, roughly 36% growth versus the prior‑year quarter near $1.52 billion.

Options market commentary from TipRanks suggests traders are bracing for a double‑digit move post‑earnings, with implied volatility pointing to an ~11–12% swing in either direction. ^[27]

What investors will likely focus on:

AI data center momentum
- How fast is revenue from custom AI silicon and optical interconnects growing, and what percentage of total sales does it now represent?
- Any new large design wins, particularly with hyperscalers?
Update on Celestial AI
- Does management confirm, deny or comment on the reported multi‑billion‑dollar talks?
- How would such a deal fit into the capital allocation framework given the existing buyback and dividend programs?
Margin trajectory
- Non‑GAAP gross margin is guided to the high‑50s to 60% range; any upside or downside will drive earnings power expectations. ^[28]
- Investors will also watch whether operating expenses stay near the $485 million non‑GAAP level previously guided. ^[29]
Guidance for Q4 and beyond
- The Street already expects full‑year revenue around $8.3 billion, up about 44% year‑on‑year, with EPS turning strongly positive. Any change to that path will be closely scrutinized. ^[30]

Analyst ratings, price targets and long‑term forecasts

On the sell‑side, Marvell is firmly in “AI darling” territory — but with some debate around valuation and upside.

Consensus targets

StockAnalysis aggregates 32 analysts covering MRVL:

Consensus rating: “Buy”.
Average 12‑month price target: $95.31, implying roughly 3% upside from the low‑$90s.
Target range spans $67 on the low end to $149 at the high end, highlighting how widely opinions differ on long‑term AI monetization. ^[31]

GuruFocus, using a slightly different analyst set, reports for 38 analysts: ^[32]

Average target: about $90.94, only ~2% above the price at the time of that report.
High / low: $122 high, $58.20 low.
Consensus recommendation: equivalent to “Outperform” (average rating ~2.1 on a 1–5 scale).

GuruFocus’ own GF Value model pegs fair value around $100, implying nearly 12% upside vs. the reference price of $89.40. ^[33]

Recent rating moves

Recent actions show a mix of enthusiasm and caution: ^[34]

Morgan Stanley: maintained an “Equal Weight” (Hold) rating but raised its target from $76 to $86 ahead of earnings, citing strength in optics while taking a more measured view after earlier shortfalls in certain cloud programs.
Rosenblatt: reiterated a “Buy” and $95 target on December 1, signaling continued confidence in Marvell’s AI positioning.
Susquehanna: kept a “Positive” rating and lifted its target from $80 to $100 in late November.
UBS: maintained “Buy” while raising its target from $105 to $110.
HSBC: initiated coverage with a “Hold” and $85 target.
Barclays: downgraded the stock from “Overweight” to “Equal Weight” in October, holding its $80 target and effectively saying much of the AI story was already priced in at the time.

Growth expectations

On the fundamentals side, Wall Street is modeling a step‑function change in profitability: ^[35]

Revenue FY2026 (current fiscal year): around $8.29 billion, up about 43.8% from $5.77 billion in the prior year.
EPS FY2026: consensus around $2.86, a dramatic swing from negative EPS (~‑$1.02) last year as AI revenue scales and margins expand.
Next year’s growth: revenue is currently forecast to be essentially flat around $8.3 billion, suggesting Street models a breather after this year’s surge.

Zacks recently highlighted Marvell as an “incredible growth stock”, citing: ^[36]

Expected EPS growth of roughly 80% this year, far outpacing the industry average in the mid‑single digits.
Solid cash‑flow growth, with multi‑year cash flow expansion around 22% annually versus about 9% for peers.
Positive earnings estimate revisions, with the consensus EPS estimate up about 1.5% over the past month.

That combination earns Marvell a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and a Growth Score of “B”, reinforcing its status as a favored AI growth story — if current trends continue.

Buybacks, dividends and ownership trends

Capital‑return policy has become an important part of the Marvell story.

In September 2025, the company announced an additional $5 billion stock repurchase authorization plus a $1 billion accelerated share repurchase (ASR) program. Shortly before that, Marvell declared a quarterly dividend of $0.06 per share (about $0.24 annually, translating to a yield near 0.3% at current prices). ^[37]

MarketBeat’s latest fund‑flow summary for December 2 notes: ^[38]

Portfolio Design Labs LLC cut its MRVL stake by about 61% in Q2, selling nearly 24,000 shares and retaining roughly 15,000 shares.
At the same time, multiple funds — including Taylor Frigon Capital Management and Waterfront Wealth — added to their positions.
Insiders, including CEO Matt Murphy and executive Sandeep Bharathi, bought a combined 27,200 shares last quarter, signaling internal confidence.

On the balance sheet, GuruFocus data shows: ^[39]

Current ratio around 1.9 and quick ratio near 1.4, indicating solid liquidity.
Debt‑to‑equity of roughly 0.36, suggesting a moderate, manageable leverage profile.
Altman Z‑Score over 7, typically viewed as low financial distress risk.

However, profitability metrics still reflect the hangover from prior down‑cycle years and aggressive investment:

Gross margin near 45% on a GAAP basis and in a long‑term downtrend according to GuruFocus.
Operating margin in the mid‑single digits and net margin slightly negative (~‑1.4%) in recent trailing data, even as non‑GAAP EPS has turned positive. ^[40]

So while the balance sheet is strong and capital returns are meaningful, the bull case still depends on sustaining high AI‑driven growth and improving profitability over time.

Bull vs. bear case going into tonight’s earnings

Bullish investors argue that Marvell is emerging as a core enabler of AI infrastructure:

Q2 FY26 delivered 58% revenue growth and record sales, with management signaling continued growth into Q3. ^[41]
The company is deeply embedded with hyperscalers via custom AI ASICs, optical DSPs and now expanded security HSMs for Azure, creating multiple high‑margin franchises. ^[42]
A potential Celestial AI deal would give Marvell a differentiated photonics platform, positioning it at the center of the memory‑to‑compute bottleneck that defines large‑scale AI. ^[43]
Consensus expects a sharp swing to positive EPS, strong cash‑flow growth and an eventual normalization of margins, which could make today’s valuation look reasonable in hindsight. ^[44]

Skeptics, meanwhile, point to a different set of concerns:

Valuation risk: With a forward P/E near 30x and P/S around 11x, Marvell is priced for near‑flawless execution in a notoriously cyclical industry. ^[45]
Profitability still catching up: Despite non‑GAAP EPS growth, GAAP net margins remain weak, and GuruFocus data still shows negative ROE and margin compression versus history. ^[46]
Execution and integration risk: Managing rapid AI growth, scaling multiple product lines and potentially absorbing a multi‑billion‑dollar acquisition all at once is complex. ^[47]
Volatility: With a beta above 2, options markets implying double‑digit post‑earnings moves and high expectations, MRVL could swing sharply on any outlook that doesn’t meet the market’s lofty hopes. ^[48]

Ultimately, tonight’s Q3 results — and any commentary on Celestial AI — are likely to set the tone for MRVL’s next leg, whether that’s a continuation of its AI‑driven rally or a period of consolidation while earnings catch up to the share price.

Bottom line

As of December 2, 2025, Marvell Technology sits at the crossroads of AI infrastructure demand, next‑generation photonics and secure cloud services, supported by a strong balance sheet and aggressive capital‑return program. The stock already reflects significant optimism, but the combination of:

Record recent growth,
A robust Q3 setup,
Potential Celestial AI acquisition, and
Supportive analyst forecasts,

makes MRVL one of the most closely watched semiconductor names heading into tonight’s earnings.

For investors, the key will be whether management can confirm the AI growth narrative with numbers, clarify its M&A strategy, and provide a credible path for margins and earnings that justifies today’s premium valuation.

This article is for informational and editorial purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.