Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) heads into the Christmas holiday stretch with investors still debating a big question: Is Marvell one of the most important “picks-and-shovels” winners of the AI boom—or is it overly dependent on a handful of hyperscaler customers who can change suppliers quickly?
On December 24, 2025, that debate is being fueled by a fresh mix of market action, new institutional-filing headlines, and ongoing analysis around Marvell’s AI connectivity strategy—especially after its blockbuster Celestial AI acquisition announcement earlier this month. [1]
MRVL stock price on Dec. 24, 2025: where shares stand
Marvell shares closed at $86.40 on December 24, 2025, down about 1.46% on the day, according to end-of-day pricing data. [2]
That move followed a strong prior session: a Nasdaq market wrap published early Dec. 24 highlighted that Marvell was the biggest gainer in the Nasdaq Composite on Tuesday’s trade, rising about 3.4%, as the broader “AI trade” helped lift indexes. [3]
In terms of the broader trading range investors have been watching, multiple market-data sources list MRVL’s 52-week high around $127.48 and 52-week low near $47.09. [4]
Why Marvell keeps showing up in the “AI infrastructure” conversation
A theme running through today’s commentary is that the AI boom isn’t only about GPUs—it’s also about moving data between compute, memory, and racks fast enough to keep expensive accelerators fully utilized.
A Dec. 24 deep-dive analysis piece described Marvell as a kind of “nervous system” of modern AI data centers, emphasizing its role in connectivity, optical interfaces, and custom silicon that sit adjacent to headline-grabbing compute. [5]
That framing matches what Marvell itself has been highlighting: the company is leaning into next-generation data center connectivity—including scale-up fabrics that connect many accelerators together, where bandwidth, latency, reach, and power efficiency become the bottleneck. [6]
Earnings recap: Marvell’s latest quarter and what stood out
Marvell’s most recent earnings update (released December 2, 2025) delivered several headline numbers that still anchor the stock narrative on Dec. 24:
- Q3 fiscal 2026 net revenue:$2.075 billion (a record; up 37% year-over-year) [7]
- Q3 non-GAAP diluted EPS:$0.76 [8]
- Data center revenue:$1.5179 billion, up 38% year-over-year, representing ~73% of total revenue for the quarter [9]
One nuance investors should keep straight: the same earnings release notes that results include the impact of Marvell’s automotive ethernet business sale to Infineon, which created a large pre-tax gain and boosted GAAP profitability. [10]
The takeaway many traders drew: Marvell’s AI/data-center engine is doing the heavy lifting, and that’s what keeps MRVL in the AI “infrastructure winners” bucket—even when the stock is choppy.
Marvell’s forward guidance: the near-term forecast the Street is trading
Marvell’s own Q4 fiscal 2026 outlook remains one of the most important “official forecasts” in the MRVL story right now. In its December 2 release, the company guided to:
- Net revenue:$2.200 billion ± 5%
- Non-GAAP diluted EPS:$0.79 ± $0.05
- Non-GAAP gross margin:58.5% to 59.5% [11]
Management also stated it expects full-year revenue growth to exceed 40% and indicated its data center revenue growth forecast for next year had improved versus prior expectations. [12]
That combination—big data center mix, strong growth language, and a guide the market can model—has been central to why analyst targets moved sharply after earnings.
The Celestial AI acquisition: what Marvell bought and why it matters to MRVL stock
The largest strategic catalyst discussed around MRVL this month is Marvell’s planned acquisition of Celestial AI, announced December 2, 2025. Marvell positioned the deal as a move to accelerate scale-up optical interconnect for next-generation AI and cloud data centers. [13]
What is Celestial AI’s “Photonic Fabric” in plain English?
Marvell argues AI systems are moving beyond a single rack into multi-rack configurations that require an integrated, any-to-any fabric. In that world, the industry’s next bottleneck becomes the links—where Marvell expects interconnects to transition increasingly toward all-optical connections for power, reach, and bandwidth reasons. [14]
In the acquisition announcement, Marvell highlighted:
- Its view that next-gen fabrics will use purpose-built switches and protocols (it referenced UALink). [15]
- Celestial AI’s technology platform being built for deeper optical penetration “within rack, within system, and even within a package.” [16]
- A stated expectation that Celestial’s chiplets could enable early commercial deployments of optical scale-up interconnect. [17]
Deal terms investors are tracking
Marvell disclosed the financial structure clearly:
- Upfront consideration: approximately $3.25 billion (including $1.0B cash and ~27.2M shares valued around $2.25B) [18]
- Contingent consideration (earnout): up to ~27.2M additional shares (up to $2.25B in value, tied to revenue milestones) [19]
- Expected closing:Q1 calendar 2026, subject to conditions and approvals [20]
The long-range revenue bridge: when could it show up?
Marvell said it expects:
- Meaningful revenue contributions beginning in the second half of fiscal 2028
- A $500M annualized run rate by Q4 fiscal 2028
- Doubling to a $1B run rate by Q4 fiscal 2029 [21]
This timing matters for valuation debates: bulls see it as a credible “next leg” after current AI networking ramps; bears see it as far enough out that execution risk remains high.
Reuters, covering the deal and the quarter, also framed the acquisition as a strategic bet on photonics-based connectivity for AI infrastructure and noted Marvell’s bullish tone on growth into next year. [22]
Wall Street forecasts for Marvell stock: price targets and rating mix
As of Dec. 24, the clearest “at-a-glance” way to summarize the Street’s MRVL forecast is the 12‑month price target range and where the consensus sits relative to today’s price.
One widely referenced snapshot shows:
- Average (consensus) price target: about $111.25
- High target:$156
- Low target:$66
- Overall consensus rating described as “Moderate Buy.” [23]
Zacks’ compilation of analyst targets similarly presents a wide spread, with forecasts ranging from the high $50s up to the mid‑$150s and an average implying substantial upside from recent closes. [24]
Recent “what changed, and when” tracking also shows a busy month for Marvell ratings/targets—highlighting both upward revisions and downgrades around early December. [25]
How to interpret this as a reader: the market is not debating whether Marvell is relevant to AI—it is debating how durable and defensible its position is against rivals, and how much of future hyperscaler spend can be captured without margin or customer-concentration blowback.
The bull case and the bear case: the debate behind MRVL’s volatility
The bull argument: data center dominance + scale-up optionality
The bull narrative rests on three pillars:
- Data center revenue is already the core of the business. In the latest quarter, Marvell reported ~73% of revenue from data center, with data center revenue growing 38% year-over-year. [26]
- Near-term guidance points to continued growth. Management guided Q4 revenue to ~$2.2B ±5%, with non-GAAP EPS and margins that suggest operating leverage if demand holds. [27]
- Celestial AI adds a credible “next frontier” if optical scale-up becomes standard. Marvell explicitly tied the acquisition to the shift toward all‑optical multi‑rack architectures and gave multi-year run-rate targets. [28]
Investopedia, summarizing the early-December reaction, noted the combination of a profit beat and the Celestial AI acquisition helped propel shares in that period, and also referenced analyst enthusiasm following the announcement. [29]
The bear argument: hyperscaler concentration and competitive churn
The bear case tends to focus on customer concentration and “design-win risk,” especially around hyperscalers:
- A MarketWatch report earlier this month laid out concerns tied to Marvell’s positioning with Amazon and Microsoft, discussing competitive threats and the possibility of share loss in certain programs. [30]
- MarketWatch also reported that even after an upbeat forecast period, analysts still had pointed questions about customer relationships and competitive dynamics. [31]
Even in the more tactical “sell-side note” stream, you can see how that uncertainty filters through. The Fly’s running feed for MRVL highlights:
- A Dec. 22 Citi “upside 30‑day catalyst watch” into CES
- A Dec. 23 Benchmark note suggesting Marvell retains a partial role in Amazon’s Trainium 3/4 designs [32]
That same Citi/CES angle is echoed in other coverage summarizing the catalyst-watch call and the idea that CES could spotlight adoption of Marvell’s solutions. [33]
Institutional and insider signals hitting headlines on Dec. 24
On December 24, 2025, MRVL also picked up incremental attention from “instant alert” coverage of institutional filings:
- One report noted DAVENPORT & Co LLC boosted its stake by 32%, buying 98,780 shares (and cited a larger total position afterward). [34]
- Another highlighted Swedbank AB growing its holdings and also summarized recent insider buying activity reported in SEC-linked disclosures, including purchases by Marvell’s CEO and CFO earlier in the quarter. [35]
These filings don’t usually move a mega-cap semiconductor stock by themselves—but in a story stock like MRVL, they often get repeated because they align with (or challenge) the prevailing narrative about institutional conviction.
Capital returns: buybacks remain a real part of the MRVL stock story
While AI headlines dominate, Marvell has also made capital return a talking point.
In a September 24, 2025 announcement, Marvell disclosed an additional $5 billion stock repurchase authorization and a $1 billion accelerated share repurchase (ASR) program, explicitly framing it as part of returning capital to shareholders. [36]
For investors, this matters because buybacks can:
- support EPS during periods of volatility, and
- signal management’s confidence in the business trajectory—though they don’t eliminate execution risks.
Other company developments investors still cite in the Marvell thesis
Marvell has also continued to build out its broader “infrastructure silicon” footprint beyond the Celestial deal.
For example, Marvell announced on December 1, 2025 that Microsoft expanded the use cases for Marvell-powered cloud-based security offerings (LiquidSecurity hardware security modules) for customers in Europe, adding to existing offerings in other regions. [37]
And in a separate Reuters report from November 20, 2025, Marvell discussed plans to expand hiring and R&D investment in India to tap AI-infrastructure demand—an operational datapoint that supports the longer-term “AI buildout” storyline. [38]
What to watch next for Marvell (MRVL) stock
As of Dec. 24, 2025, the market’s MRVL checklist for the next few weeks and quarters is fairly consistent:
- Follow-through on guidance: whether Marvell hits its Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue and margin outlook. [39]
- Celestial AI deal progress: updates on regulatory/closing timing (Marvell expects Q1 calendar 2026) and how quickly the combined roadmap is integrated into customer plans. [40]
- Hyperscaler program clarity: any confirmation (or refutation) around rumored program share shifts with major customers—because those narratives have proven they can swing the stock. [41]
- CES-related commentary: the near-term “catalyst watch” framing suggests sell-side attention could intensify around CES messaging and any product/customer signals. [42]
- Valuation vs. growth: MRVL’s price target dispersion (low-to-high spanning roughly $66 to $156 in one snapshot) underscores how sensitive the stock is to assumptions about AI networking ramps and long-term optical scale-up adoption. [43]
Bottom line
On December 24, 2025, Marvell stock is being priced at the intersection of two powerful forces:
- a strong, current-cycle AI data-center ramp that management says is accelerating (with data center already ~73% of quarterly revenue), [44]
- and a longer-range bet that scale-up AI systems will shift toward optical interconnect—a thesis Marvell is underwriting with the Celestial AI acquisition and explicit multi-year run-rate targets. [45]
At the same time, the stock’s volatility and the wide spread of analyst targets reflect a real risk: hyperscaler-led markets can be enormous, but they can also be unforgiving when design decisions change.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. markets.financialcontent.com, 6. investor.marvell.com, 7. investor.marvell.com, 8. investor.marvell.com, 9. investor.marvell.com, 10. investor.marvell.com, 11. investor.marvell.com, 12. investor.marvell.com, 13. investor.marvell.com, 14. investor.marvell.com, 15. investor.marvell.com, 16. investor.marvell.com, 17. investor.marvell.com, 18. investor.marvell.com, 19. investor.marvell.com, 20. investor.marvell.com, 21. investor.marvell.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.zacks.com, 25. finviz.com, 26. investor.marvell.com, 27. investor.marvell.com, 28. investor.marvell.com, 29. www.investopedia.com, 30. www.marketwatch.com, 31. www.marketwatch.com, 32. apim.thefly.com, 33. www.insidermonkey.com, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. investor.marvell.com, 37. investor.marvell.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. investor.marvell.com, 40. investor.marvell.com, 41. www.marketwatch.com, 42. apim.thefly.com, 43. www.marketbeat.com, 44. investor.marvell.com, 45. investor.marvell.com
