Marvell Technology’s stock is heading into a big earnings week with a potent mix of analyst upgrades, heavy institutional buying and an AI-fueled growth story that’s drawing fresh attention from Wall Street.
As of the last trading session on Friday, November 28, 2025, Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) was changing hands at roughly $89 per share, leaving the stock more than 20% below its 52‑week high of about $126 set in January. [1]
Despite that drawdown, the shares have rallied sharply from their mid‑year lows as investors reposition around the company’s role in AI infrastructure and a wave of positive research coverage ahead of third‑quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Tuesday, December 2, 2025. [2]
Share-price snapshot: volatile, but recovering into earnings
Market data from StockInvest.us shows Marvell closing at $89.40 on November 28, 2025, up about 1.9% on the day, after a string of strong sessions. [3]
Other trackers highlight how turbulent the ride has been:
- A StockStory analysis notes that Marvell has seen over 40 single‑day moves greater than 5% in the past year and remains about 30% below its early‑2025 peak, underscoring the stock’s elevated volatility. [4]
- Trefis calculates that the stock had fallen around 31% from early January through late November, even as the Nasdaq‑100 index gained roughly 16% over the same period. [5]
In other words: Marvell has been a classic high‑beta AI play in 2025—punishing on the downside, but quick to respond when sentiment improves.
Earnings backdrop: record Q2 and ambitious Q3 guidance
Marvell’s setup for Q3 FY26 is being shaped by a record second quarter and robust guidance.
In its Q2 FY26 results released on August 28, 2025, the company reported: [6]
- Revenue of $2.006 billion, up 58% year on year, a new company record.
- Non‑GAAP EPS of $0.67, with strong operating leverage.
- GAAP gross margin of 50.4% and non‑GAAP gross margin of 59.4%.
Management guided for the third quarter of FY26 (the one being reported December 2) to deliver: [7]
- Revenue of about $2.06 billion ± 5%,
- Non‑GAAP EPS of about $0.74 ± $0.05,
- Non‑GAAP gross margin between 59.5% and 60.0%.
Wall Street expectations have since coalesced around that outlook. TipRanks, Zacks, and other data providers now show consensus estimates in the region of $2.06–$2.07 billion in revenue and EPS of $0.74–$0.75, implying roughly mid‑30% revenue growth and ~70%+ EPS growth year on year. [8]
The company’s own commentary has repeatedly emphasized that growth is being driven primarily by:
- Custom AI silicon for hyperscale cloud customers, and
- Electro‑optics and high‑speed connectivity products for data centers. [9]
Marvell said in August that its team is engaged in over 50 new custom AI design opportunities across more than 10 customers, highlighting the breadth of its AI pipeline. [10]
Today’s headline: UBS pushes target to $110 on AI and optics strength
The most recent development on November 30, 2025 comes from Europe: a new piece on boerse‑global.de, syndicated via ad‑hoc‑news, spotlighted Marvell after UBS raised its price target to $110 just days before earnings. [11]
That note builds on earlier UBS research and lays out a bullish case centered on:
- Optical networking: accelerating demand for high‑speed optical connectivity to link GPU clusters and AI accelerators.
- Custom chips for Microsoft: UBS expects Marvell’s work on Microsoft’s AI infrastructure to contribute materially to revenue starting in late 2026. [12]
UBS now models:
- Q4 FY26 revenue of around $2.2 billion, above the current Street consensus near $2.17 billion. [13]
- 2027 EPS of roughly $4.40+, up from prior estimates around $3.85, assuming continued scale in optics and custom silicon. [14]
At a recent price near $89, a $110 target implies more than 20% upside if UBS’s thesis plays out. [15]
Other analyst moves: bullish upgrades meet valuation skepticism
UBS is not alone in turning more optimistic:
- Susquehanna recently reaffirmed a Positive rating and lifted its target from $80 to $100, citing improving visibility into Marvell’s AI and data‑center businesses. [16]
- A broader analyst survey compiled by TipRanks shows 23 Buy ratings and 9 Holds, for a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average price target around $93–94 per share, modestly above current levels. [17]
However, the bullishness is not unanimous:
- HSBC initiated coverage with a Hold rating and an $85 target, arguing that while Marvell is becoming a meaningful AI player, much of that opportunity is already reflected in the valuation. The bank also flagged heavy exposure to Asian demand and tough competition from Broadcom in custom AI chips. [18]
- Research synthesized by Simply Wall St suggests that management’s long‑range narrative—$12.1 billion in revenue and $2.9 billion in earnings by 2028—would require about 18.7% compound annual revenue growth, with an intrinsic value estimate near $90 per share, only modestly above recent trading levels. [19]
Trefis, meanwhile, argues that valuation is “not the issue”, noting that Marvell trades at about 28× FY26 earnings, compared with roughly 38× for Nvidia and 41× for AMD, and carries around $4.8 billion of debt against a ~$69 billion market cap and about $1.2 billion in cash. [20]
Put simply, the Street is debating whether Marvell is a reasonably priced AI infrastructure play—or a stock that already discounts a lot of good news.
Big-money buying: institutions and insiders are adding
A second major theme in the latest news flow is who is buying the stock.
Recent SEC filings summarized by MarketBeat show a wave of institutional accumulation in the second quarter: [21]
- Russell Investments Group Ltd. boosted its stake by 26.6% to about 495,693 shares, worth roughly $38.3 million.
- Nordea Investment Management increased its position by more than 48%, to over 7.1 million shares.
- The State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System raised its holdings by 1% to roughly 845,000 shares.
- J.W. Cole Advisors Inc. grew its stake by 16.7% to more than 23,000 shares, valued at about $1.78 million.
Taken together, these filings suggest that institutional investors now control more than 80% of Marvell’s float, a high level of professional ownership for a mid‑cap chipmaker. [22]
Insiders have also been buying:
- MarketBeat reports that CEO Matt Murphy, CFO Willem Meintjes and other senior executives purchased a combined 27,200 shares over the past quarter, worth just over $2.1 million, at average prices around $78. [23]
At the same time, Marvell’s board has authorized a $5 billion share repurchase program, representing up to about 7.8% of outstanding shares, signaling that management views the stock as undervalued at current levels. [24]
Today’s German‑language coverage explicitly links that buyback and the new UBS target with the fresh institutional buying, framing Marvell as “in the spotlight” just before earnings. [25]
AI infrastructure strategy: custom silicon, optics and India expansion
The heart of the Marvell story in 2025 has been its shift toward AI and cloud infrastructure:
- The company has divested its Automotive Ethernet business to focus resources on higher‑growth data‑center and AI products, including custom accelerators and advanced optical interconnects. [26]
- Trefis emphasizes Marvell’s strengths in high‑speed SerDes IP (the circuitry that pushes bits around at terrifying speeds), optical modules, and custom ASICs that can deliver better power efficiency and cost per performance than general‑purpose GPUs—critical advantages as AI workloads scale from training to inference. [27]
Beyond the U.S., Marvell is also investing heavily in talent and R&D capacity:
- A recent Reuters report from November 20 notes that the company plans to grow its India workforce by about 15% annually over the next three years, starting from a base of 1,700 employees across Bengaluru (HQ), Hyderabad (security solutions), and Pune (embedded networking and storage). [28]
- Marvell is in talks with Indian outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) firms, aiming to align with the country’s emerging packaging and test ecosystem and tap into domestic AI data‑center build‑outs over the coming decade. [29]
The combination of custom AI silicon, optical connectivity and global R&D expansion is central to the bull case that sees Marvell as a quieter, infrastructure‑focused complement to GPU leaders like Nvidia and AMD.
Technical and momentum signals
On the technical side, Investor’s Business Daily recently highlighted that Marvell’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating has improved into the mid‑70s, up from the high‑60s, reflecting an acceleration in the stock’s relative performance versus the broader market. [30]
The same automated coverage pointed to a 123% jump in earnings and 58% growth in sales in the most recent reported period—figures consistent with Marvell’s Q2 FY26 report—and suggested waiting for a cleaner “buy point” despite improving momentum. [31]
Shorter‑term news flow has been dominated by sharp swings tied to AI sentiment and macro headlines:
- On November 26, Marvell rose nearly 5% intraday after multiple analysts raised their price targets, including Susquehanna and UBS. [32]
- On several other days in November, the stock logged gains of 3–8% as AI‑exposed names rallied alongside mega‑caps like Alphabet and Nvidia. [33]
The takeaway: traders are treating MRVL as a leveraged way to express views on AI data‑center spending, both up and down.
Key risks heading into December 2
Despite the upbeat tone of recent notes, several risk factors loom over next week’s report:
- Execution risk: After a record Q2 and substantial Q3 guidance, the bar is high. Even a small miss—or conservative commentary on AI demand, hyperscaler capex, or China exposure—could trigger volatility. [34]
- Competitive pressure: Broadcom, AMD and others are aggressively pursuing custom AI silicon and advanced packaging, raising the risk that Marvell loses design wins or pricing power over time. [35]
- Macro and geopolitics: More than 70% of Marvell’s revenue is tied to Asia, leaving it exposed to export controls, trade tensions and regional slowdowns. [36]
- Valuation sensitivity: Narratives from Simply Wall St and others stress that achieving management’s 2028 targets—$12.1 billion in revenue and $2.9 billion in earnings—requires very strong multi‑year growth. If that trajectory slips, current valuation multiples could compress. [37]
Given the stock’s history of large post‑earnings moves, none of these risks are merely theoretical.
What to watch for investors and traders
When Marvell reports Q3 FY26 results on December 2, 2025 at 1:45 p.m. Pacific time, several datapoints are likely to drive the next move: [38]
- Headline numbers vs. guidance
- Does revenue land near the $2.06–$2.07 billion mark?
- Is non‑GAAP EPS close to the $0.74–$0.75 range the market expects?
- Q4 and 2026 guidance
- How does management’s outlook compare to UBS’s more aggressive $2.2 billion Q4 revenue forecast?
- Are there updates to the long‑term revenue and earnings trajectory into 2027–2028?
- AI mix and customer concentration
- Updates on custom chip programs for major hyperscalers (especially Microsoft and Amazon).
- The split between AI‑driven data‑center revenue and more traditional networking/storage segments.
- Capital returns and balance sheet
- Pace of the $5 billion share repurchase program.
- Any commentary on further M&A, particularly in optics or packaging.
Bottom line
As of November 30, 2025, Marvell Technology sits squarely at the intersection of three powerful forces:
- A still‑expanding AI infrastructure cycle,
- Intensifying competition in custom silicon and data‑center connectivity, and
- A wall of institutional and insider capital that has moved in ahead of earnings.
The new $110 price target from UBS, the record Q2 results, and the fresh wave of institutional buying have put the stock back in the spotlight—but they have also raised expectations heading into December 2.
References
1. stockinvest.us, 2. investor.marvell.com, 3. stockinvest.us, 4. markets.financialcontent.com, 5. www.trefis.com, 6. investor.marvell.com, 7. investor.marvell.com, 8. www.tipranks.com, 9. investor.marvell.com, 10. investor.marvell.com, 11. www.ad-hoc-news.de, 12. www.ad-hoc-news.de, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.ad-hoc-news.de, 16. markets.financialcontent.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. simplywall.st, 20. www.trefis.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.ad-hoc-news.de, 26. investor.marvell.com, 27. www.trefis.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.investors.com, 31. www.investors.com, 32. markets.financialcontent.com, 33. markets.financialcontent.com, 34. www.tipranks.com, 35. www.trefis.com, 36. www.tipranks.com, 37. simplywall.st, 38. investor.marvell.com
