Merck (MRK) Stock: Key News, Analyst Targets, and Catalysts to Know Before the Market Opens Dec. 26, 2025

U.S. stock markets were closed for Christmas Day (Thursday, Dec. 25, 2025) and are scheduled to reopen Friday, Dec. 26 after a holiday-early close on Wednesday, Dec. 24. ^[1]

That timing matters for Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) investors because the stock has been moving on a cluster of late-December headlines—ranging from drug-pricing policy to pipeline fast-tracks and approvals, plus a wave of fresh analyst target changes.

Below is what to know heading into the Dec. 26 open, based on the latest available reporting and company disclosures.

MRK stock snapshot heading into Dec. 26

Last quoted price: MRK was last indicated around $106.45 in the latest available quote (after the Dec. 24 holiday-shortened session).
Why the last “normal” session matters: NYSE markets closed early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 24 and were closed Dec. 25. That can concentrate order flow into fewer hours—and sometimes exaggerate momentum signals into the next open. ^[2]
Next major scheduled event:Merck’s Q4 2025 earnings call is set for Feb. 3, 2026 at 9:00 a.m. ET. ^[3]
Next dividend payment: Merck declared a $0.85 quarterly dividend, payable Jan. 8, 2026, to shareholders of record Dec. 15, 2025 (meaning the ex-date has already passed). ^[4]

What’s driving Merck headlines right now

1) A major U.S. drug-pricing policy development (and Merck’s response)

On Dec. 19, 2025, the White House announced another round of drug-pricing agreements under a “most-favored-nation” approach, including Merck among participating companies. The announcement also highlighted a direct-to-consumer channel (“TrumpRx”) intended to lower costs for some patients starting in January. ^[5]

Merck separately confirmed it reached an agreement with the U.S. government and said it plans to offer JANUVIA, JANUMET, and JANUMET XR through a direct-to-patient program at a cash price ~70% off list, with plans to expand the program to include enlicitide decanoate if it receives FDA approval. ^[6]

Why investors care:

In the near term, these agreements can reduce tariff and policy uncertainty (depending on final implementation details), but they also increase attention on net pricing, rebate structures, and how quickly “direct” channels scale. ^[7]
For Merck specifically, Reuters noted the diabetes products named by Merck are expected to face generic competition next year, making pricing strategy and channel shifts more relevant to how the company manages the transition. ^[8]

Key risk to watch: policy announcements can move faster than operational reality. The practical impact on Merck’s revenue and margins will depend on details like eligibility, uptake, and how pricing compares to existing negotiated rates and patient assistance pathways.

2) FDA fast-track attention for two Merck pipeline assets

In another late-December catalyst, Reuters reported the FDA granted national priority review vouchers to Merck for two drugs:

Enlicitide (a cholesterol-lowering pill / oral PCSK9 inhibitor candidate), and
sac-TMT (an antibody-drug conjugate cancer therapy). ^[9]

According to Reuters, the voucher program can compress review timelines substantially versus standard review—turning the regulatory calendar into a more immediate catalyst for biotech-style price action (even for a mega-cap pharma). ^[10]

Why it matters: If investors believe faster regulatory pathways improve probability-weighted value (or bring forward revenue), they may reward MRK with a higher near-term multiple—especially while the market is focused on Merck’s longer-dated “post-Keytruda” growth plan.

The Merck pipeline and product story investors keep coming back to

Keytruda: defending the franchise ahead of the patent cliff

Merck’s oncology powerhouse Keytruda remains central to the MRK thesis—both as a strength today and a concentration risk looking forward. Multiple analyses point to a U.S. loss of exclusivity around 2028 as a major strategic inflection point. ^[11]

One of Merck’s major 2025 moves: a subcutaneous formulation. The FDA posted approval information for pembrolizumab + berahyaluronidase alfa (Keytruda Qlex) for subcutaneous injection across adult and certain pediatric solid-tumor indications tied to IV pembrolizumab. ^[12]

Merck has also highlighted new approvals that expand how Keytruda is used in combination regimens—such as Keytruda (and Keytruda Qlex) plus Padcev as a perioperative regimen for certain cisplatin-ineligible muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients. ^[13]

What to watch: adoption of new formulations and new combinations can help Merck defend share, improve convenience, and potentially support the brand as competition intensifies. But the market will continue to handicap how much of today’s Keytruda revenue is truly durable into the late 2020s. ^[14]

Winrevair: a newer growth driver that’s increasingly “real”

Merck’s pulmonary arterial hypertension drug Winrevair (sotatercept) has been another focal point as investors look for products that can scale quickly enough to offset future Keytruda pressure.

Merck’s Q3 2025 update reported:

WINREVAIR sales of $360 million (with strong growth cited year-over-year), and
KEYTRUDA sales of $8.1 billion in the quarter. ^[15]

Merck also announced positive European regulatory momentum in December: it said it received a positive EU CHMP opinion tied to expanded use for Winrevair in PAH, building on label updates referenced in 2025. ^[16]

Why it matters for MRK stock: Winrevair is one of the clearest “new pillar” narratives investors can model—because it’s commercial today and its trajectory can be tracked quarter by quarter. ^[17]

Enlicitide: the cholesterol “pill that looks like an injectable”

Enlicitide is one of Merck’s most-watched late-stage cardiometabolic programs because it targets a huge population—and because the category is dominated by injectable PCSK9 therapies.

Merck announced Phase 3 data presentations in 2025 and said enlicitide significantly reduced LDL cholesterol in Phase 3 CORALreef studies. ^[18]
Independent reporting from STAT on a late-stage trial presentation described LDL reductions up to ~60%, framing the pill as potentially competitive with injectable options (while noting outcomes evidence is still the larger long-term question). ^[19]

Then came December’s regulatory acceleration: Reuters reported FDA priority vouchers for enlicitide, and Merck’s U.S. government agreement explicitly referenced adding enlicitide to direct-to-patient offerings following FDA approval. ^[20]

Bull case: If enlicitide is approved with a compelling label, investors could start pricing in a meaningful new revenue stream—especially if Merck can drive broad access and adherence with an oral option. ^[21]
Bear case: uptake could be slower than hoped if payers restrict reimbursement, if competition responds aggressively, or if real-world adherence/outcomes don’t match early expectations.

sac-TMT: oncology pipeline depth, now with external funding

Merck’s ADC program sac-TMT has also been pushed into the spotlight.

Reuters reported Merck secured $700 million in funding from Blackstone Life Sciences to support sac-TMT development, with the therapy in multiple late-stage trials across tumor types. ^[22]
Merck also published its own announcement describing the agreement and positioning it as a way to advance development while maintaining momentum across a broad pipeline. ^[23]

Then, in December, Reuters included sac-TMT alongside enlicitide as receiving an FDA national priority voucher—again pulling the regulatory timeline forward as a stock catalyst. ^[24]

The financial backbone: guidance, cost actions, M&A, and capital returns

Latest guidance framing

In its Q3 2025 results, Merck said it now expects:

2025 worldwide sales of $64.5B to $65.0B, and
2025 non-GAAP EPS of $8.93 to $8.98. ^[25]

Those numbers matter heading into year-end because the market will be trying to anticipate what Merck’s initial 2026 outlook looks like—especially for Gardasil trends, Winrevair trajectory, and early contributions from newer assets.

Gardasil: still the swing factor investors can’t ignore

Merck’s HPV vaccine Gardasil has been a major debate point due to demand dynamics in China and inventory conditions. Earlier 2025 reporting tied weaker China demand to investor concerns about Merck’s ability to diversify revenue sources ahead of the Keytruda cliff. ^[26]

Verona Pharma acquisition: a “post-Keytruda” diversification bet

Merck completed its acquisition of Verona Pharma in October 2025, paying $107 per ADS for a total transaction value of about $10 billion, according to Merck’s announcement. ^[27]

The strategic logic is straightforward: Merck is building additional durable franchises (here, in COPD) that can contribute meaningfully into the next decade. ^[28]

Dividend and buybacks: “defensive” appeal still in the MRK story

Merck raised its quarterly dividend to $0.85 for Q1 2026 (payable Jan. 8, 2026). ^[29]
And earlier, Merck announced an additional $10 billion share repurchase authorization (no time limit for completion). ^[30]

In its Q2 2025 earnings call transcript, Merck described ~$1.3 billion of share repurchases in the quarter and said it expected to maintain a similar pace in Q3 and Q4 2025, citing balance sheet strength. ^[31]

For investors positioning into a potentially headline-driven 2026 policy environment, MRK’s capital return profile remains part of the reason it’s frequently categorized as a “defensive large pharma” holding.

Wall Street forecasts: where analysts see MRK heading into 2026

In December, analyst actions became a notable driver of MRK sentiment:

BMO Capital Markets upgraded Merck to Outperform and lifted its price target to $130 from $82 (reported by multiple market outlets). ^[32]
Wells Fargo upgraded Merck to Overweight and raised its price target to $125 from $90 (as summarized in market coverage). ^[33]
Goldman Sachs raised its Merck price target to $120 from $92 while maintaining a Buy rating (per multiple market summaries). ^[34]
Scotiabank raised its price target to $120 from $105 and kept an Outperform rating (per TheFly/TipRanks coverage). ^[35]
Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $102 from $100 while maintaining an Equal Weight stance (per TheFly/TipRanks coverage). ^[36]

How to interpret the dispersion:
MRK’s target range and rating mix reflect a market balancing (1) real progress on pipeline and new launches versus (2) longer-term questions about replacing Keytruda revenue and navigating policy-driven pricing pressure. ^[37]

The calendar: what could move MRK next

If you’re watching MRK into the Dec. 26 open and beyond, these are the most actionable “watch items” on the calendar:

Policy follow-through on drug pricing (Q1 2026 focus)
The TrumpRx and MFN-style announcements are headline catalysts, but the market will quickly pivot to implementation specifics, scope, and whether the approach expands. ^[38]
Regulatory pace for enlicitide and sac-TMT
With priority voucher headlines in play, any clarity on filing timing, review timelines, and label expectations can move Merck’s “next growth wave” narrative. ^[39]
Keytruda franchise evolution
Expect investors to watch for uptake trends of Keytruda Qlex (subcutaneous), plus continued label expansions and competitive dynamics. ^[40]
Winrevair trajectory
As a newer growth engine, Winrevair’s growth rate—and how it’s discussed in earnings—can disproportionately influence MRK’s medium-term multiple. ^[41]
Earnings and 2026 outlook
Merck’s Q4 2025 earnings call on Feb. 3, 2026 is the next major scheduled catalyst where investors will look for 2026 guidance framing and updated strategic priorities. ^[42]

Bottom line before the Dec. 26 open

Merck enters the post-Christmas session with a rare combination of defensive characteristics (dividend, buybacks, scale) and event-driven catalysts (policy, accelerated reviews, and pipeline milestones). ^[43]

The near-term MRK debate is less about whether Merck is a high-quality pharma company—and more about whether the market is now comfortable paying up for the idea that Merck’s next growth drivers (Winrevair, enlicitide, oncology pipeline depth, and portfolio additions like Verona) can realistically diversify the business fast enough ahead of the Keytruda exclusivity cliff later this decade. ^[44]

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.