Merck (MRK) Stock on December 10, 2025: Price Action, Dividend Catalyst, Analyst Targets and the Keytruda Question

Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) stock is treading water just below the $100 mark on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, as investors weigh a rich pipeline and fresh analyst upgrades against looming patent and pricing pressures. The day’s news flow is dominated by dividend chatter, options “whale” activity, new institutional ownership disclosures, and fresh signs that competition to flagship cancer drug Keytruda is getting real.

This article summarizes the key developments around MRK as of December 10, 2025, including stock performance, Wall Street forecasts, institutional and options flows, and the latest strategic and pipeline updates.

MRK stock performance today: modest rebound after Tuesday’s drop

As of mid‑afternoon trading on December 10, Merck shares are changing hands around $97.31, slightly above Tuesday’s close. Intraday, the stock has traded between roughly $96.51 and $98.30, with volume a little over 3.2 million shares at the time of the latest quote.

The mild gain comes after a bumpier session on Tuesday, when MRK fell about 2%, dropping from a prior close of $98.93 to trade just under $97 on above‑average volume of roughly 15.3 million shares. ^[1]

From a longer‑term perspective:

A Zacks analysis notes that Merck’s stock has slipped about 0.5% year‑to‑date, even as the broader pharmaceuticals industry is up more than 14% in 2025. ^[2]
Over the last six months, however, MRK has rallied sharply; a December 10 dividend-focused breakdown on CoinCentral cites an approximate 41% gain over six months, although the stock still trades about 25% below its 2024 highs. ^[3]
Technically, MRK has been trading above both its 50‑day and 200‑day simple moving averages since early November, a pattern Zacks flags as a sign of sustained bullish momentum. ^[4]

Valuation remains a key part of the bull case. Zacks pegs Merck’s forward price/earnings multiple at roughly 11x, versus about 16–17x for its large‑cap pharma peer group and below its own five‑year average near 12.5x. ^[5]

Dividend catalyst: ex‑dividend date approaching and yield above 3%

Income investors have a near‑term date circled. A December 10 analysis from Yahoo‑syndicated coverage highlights that Merck is about to go ex‑dividend in four days, with a quarterly payout of $0.85 per share. ^[6]

Key points from recent dividend updates:

Merck raised its quarterly dividend to $0.85 this cycle, or $3.40 annualized, implying a dividend yield around 3.4–3.5% at current prices. ^[7]
MarketBeat notes that the increase accompanied the company’s strong recent earnings print and updated guidance. ^[8]
Trader Edge’s CoinCentral piece categorizes Merck among the highest‑paying dividend stocks in the Dow, highlighting a payout ratio near 45%, leaving room for continued distributions even as key products approach patent cliffs. ^[9]

For investors specifically targeting dividend strategies, this creates a simple near‑term catalyst: buy before the ex‑dividend date and capture the $0.85 payout, though that alone doesn’t eliminate price risk.

Wall Street forecasts as of December 10: generally positive, but not euphoric

Consensus price targets and ratings

Different data providers paint subtly different pictures, but all cluster around the same broad takeaway: moderate upside and a neutral‑to‑positive rating profile.

ValueInvesting.io aggregates 34 analysts and finds an average 12‑month price target of $106.17, implying roughly 9.6% upside from the high‑$90s. The target range runs from $82.82 to $145.95. The site classifies the consensus recommendation as “BUY”, with 14 buy and 7 strong‑buy ratings versus 13 holds. ^[10]
A Zacks price‑target roundup (based on a smaller subset of analysts) pegs the average target at about $107.48, with a low estimate of $82.00. ^[11]
MarketBeat’s December 10 institutional‑ownership pieces also lean on its own compilation of research coverage, noting an average target around $107.38 and an overall “Hold” average rating – roughly seven Buys, nine Holds and one Sell. ^[12]

In short: the Street generally thinks MRK is undervalued but not dramatically mispriced, with mid‑single‑ to low‑double‑digit upside over 12 months.

Fresh analyst moves in focus today

Several more recent price‑target moves are shaping sentiment:

A December 10 Guggenheim‑linked article on Finviz highlights that the firm raised its Merck target from $104 to $122, reiterating a Buy rating. The upgrade explicitly factors in probability‑adjusted revenue from pulmonary arterial hypertension drug Winrevair, now included in Guggenheim’s models. ^[13]
The same article notes that Scotiabank lifted its target from $105 to $120 with a “Sector Outperform” view, while Goldman Sachs also upped its target to $120 from $92, maintaining a Buy rating. ^[14]
A Quiver Quantitative note from mid‑November flagged Deutsche Bank analyst James Shin setting a $111 target, alongside earlier targets from Morgan Stanley ($100) and Citigroup ($95). ^[15]

Meanwhile, a Benzinga options recap today points out that four analysts who issued ratings within the last month carry an average price target of about $119, with Scotiabank, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Deutsche Bank all clustered in the low‑ to mid‑$100s. ^[16]

Put together, the near‑term rating picture is as follows:

Long‑only analysts increasingly model Merck as more than just Keytruda, thanks to drugs like Winrevair and Capvaxive. ^[17]
However, the Zacks rank remains a “Hold” (Rank #3), reflecting persistent concerns about patent expirations and uneven performance in other product lines. ^[18]

Options and sentiment: “whale” trades target the $90–$110 range

Benzinga’s December 10 unusual options activity report shows that large, deep‑pocketed traders – often institutions – were active in MRK contracts today: ^[19]

The scanner flagged 10 unusual options trades in MRK, split evenly between 5 calls and 5 puts.
Total notional value was roughly $215,000 in calls and $205,000 in puts, with the overall “whale” sentiment described as 50% bullish, 30% bearish and the rest neutral.
Strike prices on these trades cluster between $90 and $110, with expiries extending into mid‑2026.
At the time of the report, MRK was trading near $97.94, up about 1% on the session, and technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggested the stock was edging toward overbought territory. ^[20]

Options markets, in other words, are pricing in a trading range rather than a high‑volatility breakout, broadly consistent with the mid‑$100s analyst targets but allowing for pullbacks into the low‑$90s.

Institutional flows: hedge funds quietly accumulate MRK

Two new December 10 MarketBeat filings shed light on recent hedge‑fund activity in Merck: ^[21]

Stamos Capital Partners L.P. increased its MRK position by 98.6% in Q2, ending the quarter with 226,905 shares worth approximately $17.96 million. Merck now accounts for 3.2% of the fund’s portfolio and is its second‑largest holding.
Diadema Partners LP initiated a new position of 20,000 shares, valued at about $1.58 million in Q2.

Both articles emphasize high overall institutional participation: MarketBeat cites that roughly 76% of Merck’s shares are institutionally held. ^[22] StockTitan’s profile, drawing on market data, puts total institutional ownership above 80% and short interest at under 1%, underscoring relatively low levels of outright bearish positioning. ^[23]

Quiver Quantitative’s hedge‑fund breakdown gives a similar picture: ^[24]

In Q3 2025, UBS Asset Management added over 14.3 million shares (a 57% increase in its MRK holdings), while Assenagon Asset Management nearly tripled its position.
At the same time, firms like Franklin Resources and D. E. Shaw trimmed sizable positions, suggesting active portfolio rotation rather than one‑way buying.

Net‑net, MRK remains a core institutional holding, and recent filings show selective accumulation by long‑term investors even as other funds take profits.

Earnings, guidance and growth outlook

Merck’s latest quarterly numbers continue to underpin the long‑term investment case.

MarketBeat’s December 10 notes on institutional investors recap the company’s most recent earnings release: ^[25]

Q3 EPS came in at $2.58, beating consensus estimates of $2.36 per share.
Revenue for the quarter was $17.28 billion, slightly above the roughly $17.0 billion expected and up about 3.7% year‑over‑year.
Management set full‑year 2025 EPS guidance at $8.93–$8.98 per share.

Forward estimates compiled by ValueInvesting.io show: ^[26]

2025 EPS expected around $9.06, up more than 30% from 2024, driven partly by post‑COVID normalization and margin improvements.
2026 EPS forecast near $9.49, implying high‑single‑digit growth.
Revenue is projected to grow from $65.4 billion in 2025 to $68.7 billion in 2026, a roughly 5% top‑line increase.

Zacks, in its December 9 technical and fundamental review, notes that analyst estimates for 2025 EPS have inched higher over the past two months (from $8.94 to $8.98), even as 2026 estimates have been reined in (from $9.54 to $8.81), reflecting uncertainty about life beyond major 2020s launches. ^[27]

Strategic focus: pipeline depth and M&A beyond Keytruda

The other big theme in current Merck commentary is strategic: how effectively can the company diversify away from Keytruda, which still dominates its pharmaceutical revenue but faces a U.S. patent cliff in 2028?

Keytruda remains the profit engine

Zacks data show that Keytruda accounts for more than 50% of Merck’s pharmaceutical sales and generated about $23.3 billion in revenue over the first nine months of 2025, up 8% year‑over‑year. ^[28]

Growth is coming not only from metastatic uses but also from earlier‑stage non‑small cell lung cancer and other adjuvant settings. ^[29]
The subcutaneous formulation Keytruda QLEX, approved by the FDA in September 2025, is protected by its own patent estate and offers quicker administration than the IV version, potentially softening the blow when the original IV formulation loses exclusivity. ^[30]

Recent oncology conference data also support the “Keytruda franchise” thesis:

At ESMO 2025, Merck highlighted new data in bladder cancer, ovarian cancer, and lung cancer, including further evidence that Keytruda‑based combinations improve outcomes in earlier disease stages. ^[31]
A STAT write‑up from the meeting described Merck’s presentations as “showstoppers,” suggesting that the company is leveraging both new combinations and novel antibody‑drug conjugates (ADCs) to extend its oncology dominance. ^[32]

Expanding into cardiopulmonary disease and vaccines

Merck’s M&A activity in 2025 underlines a clear push to spread risk:

In its largest deal since acquiring Prometheus Biosciences, Merck agreed to buy Verona Pharma for around $10 billion, gaining COPD drug Ohtuvayre (ensifentrine), the first new maintenance therapy for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in roughly two decades. ^[33]
- Verona reported $71.3 million in Ohtuvayre Q1 2025 sales, up 95% from Q4 2024, underscoring early commercial traction. ^[34]
Zacks also highlights the strong launch of pulmonary arterial hypertension drug Winrevair and the company’s new 21‑valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine Capvaxive, both of which could be multi‑billion‑dollar products over time. ^[35]

On top of that, Merck’s late‑stage pipeline includes: ^[36]

Enflonsia (clesrovimab), an RSV monoclonal antibody approved in the U.S. in June 2025.
MK‑0616, an oral PCSK9 inhibitor for high cholesterol.
Tulisokibart, a TL1A inhibitor targeting ulcerative colitis.
Multiple ADCs and combination regimens in collaboration with partners like Daiichi Sankyo, Moderna and Eisai.

Merck itself points out that its Phase III pipeline has nearly tripled since 2021, with a goal of launching around 20 new vaccines and drugs in the coming years. ^[37]

Alzheimer’s disease: early but notable

On December 1, Merck presented new data at the Clinical Trials on Alzheimer’s Disease (CTAD) 2025 meeting for antibody MK‑2214 and small‑molecule candidate MK‑1167. ^[38]

MK‑2214, aimed at amyloid pathology, has received FDA Fast Track designation for the treatment of early Alzheimer’s disease, reflecting regulators’ willingness to expedite potentially disease‑modifying therapies. ^[39]
While both programs remain in mid‑stage development, Merck is signaling that it intends to be a serious competitor in the neurodegenerative space — an area where successful launches can be multi‑billion‑dollar franchises. ^[40]

Emerging competition and policy headwinds

Despite the rich pipeline, today’s news also underscores growing risks to Merck’s longer‑term cash flows.

Biosimilar and next‑generation competition to Keytruda

The most directly relevant headline on December 10 is not from Merck but from potential future competitors. German biosimilar specialist Formycon and Indian pharma Zydus Lifesciences announced an exclusive licensing and supply agreement for FYB206, a biosimilar to Keytruda, covering the U.S. and Canada. ^[41]

The partners expect primary endpoint data in Q1 2026 and plan a Biologics License Application to the FDA thereafter.
Formycon emphasizes that Keytruda generated $29.5 billion in global sales in 2024, underlining the enormous commercial incentive to develop competing versions once patents expire. ^[42]

Although Keytruda’s main U.S. patents are not expected to expire until 2028, the Formycon‑Zydus news is an explicit reminder that biosimilar pressure is already forming on the horizon.

At the same time, Zacks notes that Merck faces competition from dual PD‑1/VEGF inhibitors, such as Summit Therapeutics’ ivonescimab, which has outperformed Keytruda in a Chinese Phase III lung‑cancer trial, and from similar agents licensed by Pfizer. ^[43]

Gardasil slowdown and vaccine pressures

While Keytruda is surging, Merck’s second‑largest product, HPV vaccine Gardasil, is struggling:

Zacks reports that Gardasil sales fell about 40% in the first nine months of 2025, largely because Merck paused shipments to its Chinese commercialization partner to work down elevated inventory amid weaker macro conditions. ^[44]
Demand has also softened in Japan, and several other legacy vaccines (ProQuad, M‑M‑R II, Varivax, Rotateq, Pneumovax 23) have posted declines. ^[45]

These trends highlight Merck’s dependence on oncology and cardiometabolic innovation to offset weakness in more mature vaccine franchises.

U.S. drug pricing reforms: Janumet’s 85% Medicare price cut

Regulatory pricing pressure is another theme in current coverage. A November 26 GuruFocus analysis, still prominent in today’s MRK news stream, details how Merck’s diabetes drug Janumet will see an 85% price reduction under Medicare negotiations, with the monthly cost dropping to about $80 starting in 2027. ^[46]

The cut is part of the Inflation Reduction Act’s first round of negotiated prices on 15 drugs.
CMS spent around $1.1 billion on Janumet in 2024, so the reduction is financially meaningful even if the drug is no longer Merck’s flagship. ^[47]

GuruFocus points out that Merck remains highly profitable, with operating margins near 35% and net margins close to 30%, but also notes that an RSI above 80 recently signaled an overbought condition and that insider activity has been skewed toward selling over the past three months. ^[48]

As more Merck products eventually fall under negotiated‑price regimes, investors will be watching whether pipeline and M&A‑driven growth can outrun policy‑driven margin compression.

Valuation snapshot: discounted multiple vs. structural questions

Between the dividend yield, modest upside implied by current price targets and the heavy institutional ownership, MRK today looks like a classic high‑quality, medium‑risk blue chip:

Dividend yield: ~3.4–3.5%, with a recent hike to $0.85 per quarter. ^[49]
Forward P/E: around 11x, versus ~16–17x industry average. ^[50]
Analyst targets: mid‑$100s, generally 8–20% above the current price depending on the source. ^[51]
Risk profile: heavy reliance on Keytruda through at least 2028, vaccine headwinds, regulatory pricing risks, and emerging biosimilar and next‑generation competitors. ^[52]

Zacks’ December 9 conclusion – that MRK’s recent rally and discounted valuation argue for patience rather than aggressive buying – captures the core tension facing investors: the business remains strong, but expectations are already baking in successful navigation of multiple overlapping challenges. ^[53]

Bottom line: what today’s news means for MRK stock

As of December 10, 2025, Merck’s stock story looks like this:

Near term, the focus is on the upcoming ex‑dividend date, a healthy yield, a recent step‑up in the dividend, and steadily rising institutional interest. ^[54]
Sentiment from Wall Street is cautiously bullish, with an overall tilt toward Buy ratings, incremental target upgrades from major banks, and options “whales” positioning for a trading range centered around the current price rather than a dramatic collapse or melt‑up. ^[55]
Strategically, Merck is racing to build a post‑Keytruda future, leveraging acquisitions like Verona, launches such as Winrevair and Capvaxive, and an expanding late‑stage pipeline in oncology, cardiopulmonary disease, vaccines and neurodegeneration. ^[56]
Risks are real and increasingly visible: pricing reform is already hammering older products like Janumet, Gardasil is under pressure, and today’s biosimilar partnership news underlines that Keytruda will be challenged more directly once patent walls fall. ^[57]

For now, MRK occupies a familiar space in many portfolios: a defensive, dividend‑paying large‑cap with credible growth drivers, trading at a discount to peers but carrying a complex mix of pipeline opportunity and policy risk.