Merck (MRK) Stock Outlook on December 7, 2025: Price Action, Keytruda Setback, Debt Deal and 2026 Analyst Forecasts

Updated: December 7, 2025

Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) — the U.S. pharmaceutical company behind blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda and HPV vaccine Gardasil — has just wrapped up a busy early-December news cycle. The company closed a multi‑billion‑dollar debt offering, secured fresh regulatory wins in its cardiopulmonary and animal-health franchises, boosted its dividend, and simultaneously ran into a new patent roadblock for its subcutaneous Keytruda injection in Germany. ^[1]

Against that backdrop, MRK stock is trading near the top of its 52‑week range, and Wall Street is sharpening its forecasts for 2026 and beyond.

MRK stock price today and recent performance

As of the close on Friday, December 5, 2025, Merck shares finished at $99.72, down about 1.2% on the day, marking a second straight daily decline. ^[2]

Over the last year, MRK has traded between much lower levels and a 52‑week high of $105.84, reached on November 25, 2025. At Friday’s close the stock sat roughly 5–6% below that high, keeping it firmly in the upper part of its one‑year trading range. ^[3]

Market data from recent sessions paint a picture of elevated interest:

Volume around 16 million shares, modestly above Merck’s recent average. ^[4]
On some days this week, Merck and Amgen together shaved more than 60 points off the Dow Jones Industrial Average, underscoring big pharma’s weight in the index. ^[5]

On a fundamental snapshot, Merck currently trades at:

Price‑to‑earnings (P/E) of about 13x
PEG ratio (price/earnings-to-growth) just under 1.0
Beta around 0.3, reflecting lower volatility than the broader market
Market cap near $248 billion ^[6]

That combination — near‑peak price levels but a below‑sector P/E and low beta — is exactly why many fundamental and quant-driven services are tagging MRK as a relatively defensive, potentially undervalued blue‑chip within healthcare. ^[7]

The biggest MRK news of early December 2025

1. Multi‑tranche notes offering tied to the Cidara deal

One of the most important capital‑markets moves this week was Merck’s large senior notes issuance.

According to SEC filings and law‑firm disclosures, Merck is issuing about $8.0 billion of senior unsecured notes across eight tranches, including a $500 million floating‑rate note due 2029 and several fixed‑rate notes with maturities stretching out to 2065, carrying coupons between 3.85% and 5.70%. ^[8]

A prospectus supplement indicates that Merck expects net proceeds of roughly $7.9 billion, and it may use part of the capital to help fund its planned $9.2 billion acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics, the developer of a long‑acting flu-prevention antiviral (CD388). ^[9]

The key takeaway for MRK shareholders:

Leverage will tick higher, but Merck is effectively terming out low‑cost debt.
The transaction is explicitly linked to strategic M&A (Cidara) that is intended to diversify revenue away from Keytruda over the next decade. ^[10]

Different news outlets shorthand the offering as “about $7–8 billion”, but the SEC documents cluster around the $8 billion headline figure. ^[11]

2. German court blocks subcutaneous Keytruda launch

At nearly the same time, Merck was hit with a high‑profile legal setback in Europe.

On December 4, 2025, the Munich Regional Court granted Halozyme Therapeutics a preliminary injunction blocking Merck from distributing or launching its subcutaneous Keytruda (Keytruda SC / Keytruda QLEX) formulation in Germany. ^[12]

Key details:

The court found “imminent infringement” of Halozyme’s European MDASE™ platform patent (EP 2 797 622) related to the hyaluronidase‑based delivery technology used in Merck’s subcutaneous product. ^[13]
The injunction applies only to the subcutaneous formulation, not to the standard IV Keytruda, so patients in Germany still have access to the original 30‑minute infusion version. ^[14]
Merck has already launched nullity proceedings to challenge the validity of Halozyme’s patent in the German Federal Patent Court; the injunction can be appealed but remains in force for now. ^[15]

Strategically, this matters because the subcutaneous Keytruda is a central plank in Merck’s effort to defend Keytruda’s market share ahead of a 2028 patent expiry and impending competition from biosimilars. The U.S. FDA approved the subcutaneous formulation in September, with Merck expecting 30–40% adoption within two years thanks to its 1–2 minute injection time vs a 30‑minute IV infusion. ^[16]

The German injunction doesn’t directly affect U.S. sales, but it signals that subcutaneous Keytruda could be contentious in patent courts, potentially complicating Merck’s “defend‑the‑franchise” strategy in Europe.

3. Animal health win: conditional FDA approval for EXZOLT CATTLE‑CA1

Merck’s Animal Health division quietly added a new growth lever.

On December 4, 2025, the U.S. FDA granted conditional approval to EXZOLT CATTLE‑CA1, a topical parasiticide for beef cattle that targets New World screwworm larvae and cattle-fever tick — both serious threats to livestock health. ^[17]

Key points for investors:

The product is expected to be available by prescription in early 2026. ^[18]
It further bolsters Merck’s Animal Health franchise, which already generated about $1.6 billion in Q3 2025 sales, growing faster than the core human pharmaceutical business. ^[19]

While EXZOLT CATTLE‑CA1 will not move the needle like Keytruda, it contributes to Merck’s diversification into recurring, durable animal-health cash flows.

4. Dividend boost and shareholder returns

On November 18, 2025, Merck’s board declared a first‑quarter 2026 dividend of $0.85 per share, payable January 8, 2026 to shareholders of record on December 15. That’s up from $0.81 in the prior quarter — about a 4.9% increase. ^[20]

At recent prices, the dividend implies a yield around 3.4–3.5%, and the company now boasts a 55‑year streak of uninterrupted dividend payments, with steady mid‑single‑digit annual growth in recent years. ^[21]

Merck is also actively repurchasing stock, which, combined with the dividend, means shareholders are seeing a substantial portion of free cash flow returned each year. ^[22]

5. Institutional flows: fresh buying despite volatility

Filings tracked by MarketBeat show smaller institutions such as Stenger Family Office LLC recently acquiring Merck shares — in this case, approximately 48,678 shares in the latest reported quarter — while other funds adjusted positions. ^[23]

Although any single purchase is small relative to Merck’s 2.5+ billion shares outstanding, the pattern reinforces that institutional investors still view MRK as a core healthcare holding.

Earnings, guidance and the 2025 fundamentals picture

Merck’s latest full quarterly snapshot comes from its Q3 2025 results, reported on October 30.

According to the company and independent coverage:

Total revenue: about $17.3 billion, up 4% year‑on‑year (3% excluding currency). ^[24]
Adjusted EPS (non‑GAAP):$2.58, beating consensus by roughly $0.22 per share. ^[25]
Keytruda:$8.1 billion in sales, growing about 10% vs Q3 2024 and accounting for roughly 45–47% of total revenue. ^[26]
Gardasil/Gardasil 9: around $1.7 billion, down about 24–25% year‑on‑year, driven largely by a sharp slowdown (and earlier shipment halt) in China HPV vaccine demand. ^[27]
Winrevair (sotatercept‑csrk) for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH):$360 million in quarterly sales, up roughly 141% year‑on‑year, reflecting rapid uptake after its 2024 launch. ^[28]
Other growth products such as Capvaxive (pneumococcal vaccine) and Enflonsia (RSV prevention) also contributed — Capvaxive at $244 million and Enflonsia at $79 million according to analytic breakdowns. ^[29]

Management narrowed full‑year 2025 guidance to:

Revenue:$64.5–65.0 billion
Non‑GAAP EPS:$8.93–8.98, with analysts on average modeling around $9.0 per share. ^[30]

Despite the earnings beat, investors initially sold the stock on Q3 day, focusing on the concentration risk in Keytruda, the weaker Gardasil trajectory, and the reality that mid‑single‑digit top‑line growth leaves less margin for error as the patent cliffs approach. ^[31]

Analyst ratings and MRK stock forecasts for 2026

If you look across Wall Street research desks and data aggregators, a consistent narrative emerges: MRK is broadly liked, with expectations for modest double‑digit percentage upside over the next 12 months — but with a wide range of outcomes tied to pipeline execution and drug‑pricing policy.

Consensus ratings

Different platforms slice ratings slightly differently:

StockAnalysis reports an average rating of “Buy” from around 15 analysts, with no “Sell” calls in the current tally. ^[32]
MarketBeat’s real‑time updates show a more mixed distribution (7 Buy, 9 Hold, 1 Sell in one recent sample), which they summarize as an overall “Hold” to “Moderate Buy” stance. ^[33]
Benzinga’s compilation of roughly 100 historical ratings yields an average rating score of ~3.3 on a 1–5 scale (≈ Hold/Bullish), but the most recent actions from Scotiabank, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo are firmly Bullish, with all three raising price targets in late November and early December. ^[34]

12‑month price targets

Recent published targets cluster in a relatively tight band above the current share price:

StockAnalysis: average target around $110, implying about 10–11% upside from ~$99–100. ^[35]
Public.com aggregates third‑party estimates into a 2025 price prediction of about $108.43, essentially in line with the current price but subject to frequent updates. ^[36]
MarketBeat lists an average target around $107 in its December snapshot. ^[37]
Benzinga shows a higher, longer‑tail consensus around $118+, with a high estimate near $155 and low near $85, reflecting both bullish and cautious scenario work. ^[38]
Guggenheim just raised its target to $122 from $104, explicitly citing Winrevair’s multibillion‑dollar potential as a driver of long‑term value. ^[39]

Taken together, the mainline 12‑month targets sit roughly 8–20% above current levels, depending on which dataset you use.

Fundamental / DCF valuations

While sell‑side targets tend to move in 12‑month increments, some fundamental models look much further out:

A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis from Simply Wall St estimates an intrinsic value around $216 per share, implying MRK is roughly 53% undervalued at current prices. ^[40]
The same analysis notes Merck’s P/E of roughly 13x sits well below a peer and industry “fair” multiple north of 30x when adjusted for Merck’s growth, margins and risk profile — another way of saying the market is applying a hefty discount for Keytruda and pricing risk. ^[41]

Those long‑horizon valuations are, of course, highly assumption‑dependent — particularly around:

The severity of post‑2028 price erosion on Keytruda
Uptake and durability of Winrevair and other new launches
The success of large deals such as Verona Pharma and Cidara Therapeutics ^[42]

Growth engines beyond Keytruda

Merck’s entire investment story now revolves around whether it can replace and exceed Keytruda’s nearly $30 billion in annual sales before patent expiry and price negotiations bite harder. ^[43]

Several growth pillars are taking shape.

1. Winrevair (sotatercept‑csrk) and the cardio‑pulmonary franchise

Winrevair, Merck’s PAH therapy acquired via the Acceleron deal, is emerging as a second pillar behind Keytruda:

The FDA expanded its label in October 2025, formally recognizing its ability to improve exercise capacity and reduce “clinical worsening” events (hospitalization, transplantation, death) in high‑risk PAH patients. The pivotal ZENITH trial showed a 76% reduction in major morbidity/mortality vs placebo. ^[44]
Merck is taking Winrevair into additional settings, including combined post‑ and pre‑capillary pulmonary hypertension due to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (CpcPH‑HFpEF). Phase 2 CADENCE data showed statistically significant reductions in pulmonary vascular resistance, and Guggenheim now models over $12 billion in peak probability‑adjusted revenue for Winrevair across PAH and CpcPH‑HFpEF. ^[45]

If even a portion of that upside materializes, Winrevair could become a multi‑billion‑dollar franchise that meaningfully cushions the Keytruda cliff.

2. Cidara and long‑acting flu prevention

In November 2025, Merck announced plans to acquire Cidara Therapeutics for about $9.2 billion, paying $221.50 per share, more than double Cidara’s pre‑deal closing price. ^[46]

The prize is Cidara’s experimental long‑acting influenza prophylaxis, which aims to offer season‑long protection with a single administration — a potentially disruptive product if Phase 3 data continue to be positive.

Merck expects the deal to close in Q1 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and tender conditions. ^[47]

The recent notes offering is explicitly structured with a special mandatory redemption feature if the Cidara transaction fails, underscoring how central this acquisition is to Merck’s long‑term plan. ^[48]

3. Verona Pharma and COPD

Merck is also pushing further into chronic lung disease:

In mid‑2025, it agreed to acquire Verona Pharma for about $10 billion, gaining Ohtuvayre, an inhaled treatment for COPD that is already approved in the U.S. and being explored in other respiratory indications. ^[49]
The transaction is expected to close in Q4 2025, pending shareholder and court approvals, so it sits right on the cusp of Merck’s 2026 starting line. ^[50]

COPD is a huge market with high unmet need; if Merck can scale Ohtuvayre globally and layer additional indications, the Verona deal could be another multibillion‑dollar leg of the post‑Keytruda story.

4. Cardiometabolic pipeline: Enlicitide and more

Beyond PAH, Merck is building an expansive cardiometabolic pipeline:

The oral PCSK9 inhibitor enlicitide decanoate has delivered Phase 3 results showing ~56–59% reductions in LDL‑cholesterol vs placebo in patients with familial hypercholesterolemia and high atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk. ^[51]
Merck is also advancing an innovative HIV two‑drug regimen (doravirine / islatravir), as well as once‑monthly HIV prevention candidates, with multiple late‑stage readouts highlighted in 2025. ^[52]

While none of these programs has the singular scale of Keytruda on its own, together they form a portfolio of medium‑sized assets that can add up meaningfully over time.

Key risks: concentration, China, and pricing pressure

No MRK stock outlook is complete without acknowledging the big risks that investors are actually paying for in today’s discount.

1. Keytruda concentration and the 2028 patent cliff

Keytruda generated nearly $30 billion in 2024 sales, representing about 46% of Merck’s total revenue. ^[53]

Merck has already said it expects Keytruda to be included in the U.S. Medicare drug price‑negotiation process in 2026, with new lower prices taking effect January 1, 2028 under the Inflation Reduction Act. ^[54]

Combine:

Government price negotiations and caps, and
Patent expiry later in 2028

…and it’s clear that Keytruda’s U.S. profit contribution will fall sharply in the back half of the decade. That is the central reason the market is demanding a “Keytruda risk discount” despite Merck’s strong near‑term numbers.

2. China and Gardasil

Earlier in 2025, Merck halted Gardasil shipments to China amid regulatory and inventory challenges, which heavily weighed on vaccine revenue and forced the company to abandon a prior goal of reaching $11 billion in Gardasil sales by 2030. ^[55]

The Q3 2025 numbers — Gardasil revenue down roughly a quarter from the prior year — show how painful that adjustment has been. ^[56]

China remains a potentially lucrative growth market for both vaccines and oncology, but the episode underscores the geopolitical and regulatory fragility of relying on any single territory.

3. Patent disputes around subcutaneous delivery

The Halozyme injunction in Germany highlights another risk: even when Merck successfully launches new formulations like Keytruda QLEX, it can find itself embroiled in complex patent battles around enabling technologies such as hyaluronidase‑based delivery. ^[57]

For now, the issue is localized to Germany and the subcutaneous formulation, but similar disputes in other jurisdictions or around other drugs could slow Merck’s effort to shift volume toward more convenient, defensible delivery platforms.

4. Execution and integration risk in M&A

Deals like Verona and Cidara can create enormous value — or destroy it — depending on how well Merck:

Integrates new teams
Scales commercial infrastructure
Navigates additional regulatory and pricing pressures in their respective fields ^[58]

Investors are essentially betting that Merck’s M&A batting average remains high enough to offset the inevitable failures in a broad pipeline.

Bottom line: MRK stock outlook after this week’s news

Putting all of this together as of December 7, 2025:

Price action: MRK trades around $100, a few percent below its 52‑week high but on a much lower earnings multiple than many large peers. ^[59]
Fundamentals: Q3 results reaffirmed that Merck is still delivering solid mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and double‑digit EPS growth, with Keytruda, Winrevair and vaccines doing most of the heavy lifting. ^[60]
Capital allocation: The company is raising its dividend, buying back shares, and issuing long‑dated notes to lock in funding for large strategic acquisitions like Cidara — a very shareholder‑aware, long‑term posture. ^[61]
Analyst view: Most analysts sit in the Buy / Moderate Buy camp, with 12‑month targets typically 8–20% above current levels and some fundamental models arguing that Merck is more than 50% undervalued on a long‑run DCF basis. ^[62]
Risk balance: The market is weighing the massive Keytruda and Gardasil overhangs, emerging patent disputes, and drug‑pricing pressure against a growing bench of assets in oncology, cardiopulmonary disease, vaccines, HIV, and cardiovascular risk. ^[63]

For long‑term, fundamentally oriented investors, MRK today looks like a classic large‑cap pharma trade‑off:

In the near term, the stock offers income (3%+ yield) and defensive characteristics, with earnings still growing and an increasingly diversified pipeline.
Beyond 2028, the story hinges on whether Winrevair, Verona’s Ohtuvayre, Cidara’s flu franchise, the cardiometabolic and HIV portfolios, and further oncology innovation can more than fill the Keytruda gap.